New Zealand's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were down 4.5 percent (3,815 kilotonnes), in the year ended March 2021, reflecting the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and society a year since restrictions began, Stats NZ said today.
"The year to March 2021 was one of significant upheaval for our economy and society, and that has flowed through to our greenhouse gas emissions," environmental economic accounts manager Stephen Oakley said.
"In the last year, we've seen both the largest annual decrease on record and the most volatile quarterly movements in emissions."
In the year ended March 2021, the New Zealand economy emitted 80,552 kilotonnes of GHGs. This was the lowest annual amount in seven years and 4.5 percent lower than the high of 84,367 kilotonnes in the previous March year. Over the year ended March 2021, gross domestic product fell 2.3 percent.
In the March 2021 year, the June 2020 quarter saw the largest decrease in emissions, down 7.6 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) due to a combination of lockdown and boarder restrictions. The largest contributors to this drop were transport, postal, and warehousing and households. Emissions rebounded by 8.0 percent in the September 2020 quarter as restrictions were lifted. Emissions rose 1.1 percent in the March 2021 quarter as economic activity rebounded after the fall in activity and emissions in the December 2020 quarter.
| Quarter | Quarterly |
| Dec-15 | -0.2 |
| Mar-16 | -0.8 |
| Jun-16 | -0.8 |
| Sep-16 | 0.4 |
| Dec-16 | -2.5 |
| Mar-17 | 1.9 |
| Jun-17 | 2.6 |
| Sep-17 | 0.1 |
| Dec-17 | 0.4 |
| Mar-18 | -1.2 |
| Jun-18 | 0.5 |
| Sep-18 | 0.2 |
| Dec-18 | 1.2 |
| Mar-19 | 1.1 |
| Jun-19 | 0 |
| Sep-19 | 0.4 |
| Dec-19 | -1.3 |
| Mar-20 | -1.8 |
| Jun-20 | -7.6 |
| Sep-20 | 8 |
| Dec-20 | -2.1 |
| Mar-21 | 1.1 |
| Quarter | Annual |
| Dec-15 | 0.2 |
| Mar-16 | -1 |
| Jun-16 | -1.5 |
| Sep-16 | -1.7 |
| Dec-16 | -2.3 |
| Mar-17 | -2 |
| Jun-17 | -1.1 |
| Sep-17 | -0.3 |
| Dec-17 | 2 |
| Mar-18 | 2.8 |
| Jun-18 | 2.2 |
| Sep-18 | 1.7 |
| Dec-18 | 0.6 |
| Mar-19 | 1 |
| Jun-19 | 1.6 |
| Sep-19 | 2.3 |
| Dec-19 | 2.1 |
| Mar-20 | 0.6 |
| Jun-20 | -2.3 |
| Sep-20 | -3.7 |
| Dec-20 | -4.9 |
| Mar-21 | -4.5 |
Emissions from the transport, postal, and warehousing industry (largely from international aviation) continue to be the most impacted due to COVID-19 border/travel restrictions.
"Emissions from transport, postal, and warehousing have remained low since June 2020 but started to increase as road transport and domestic air travel increased post lock-down," Mr Oakley said.
Industries that saw the largest falls in emissions in the March 2021 year included transport, postal, and warehousing, down 49 percent (2,839 kilotonnes); manufacturing, down 7.2 percent (833 kilotonnes); and agriculture, forestry, and fishing, down 1.2 percent (524 kilotonnes).
Two industries stand out with an increase in emissions
Two industries recorded increases in emissions over the year ended March 2021. Electricity, gas, water, and waste services increased 13 percent (1,016 kilotonnes), and services excluding transport, postal, and warehousing increased 0.3 percent (11 kilotonnes).
"Electricity, gas, water, and waste services emissions were up due to the greater reliance on fossil fuel use for electricity generation over the year, as New Zealand experienced dry conditions in hydro-generation areas," Mr Oakley said.
| Industry | Emissions | GDP |
| "Agriculture | -1.2 | -0.7 |
| forestry | -12.3 | -19 |
| and fishing" | -7.2 | -0.9 |
| Mining | 12.7 | -2.4 |
| Manufacturing | -6.4 | -5 |
| "Electricity | -48.8 | -30.2 |
| gas | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| water | -4.6 | -2.3 |
| and waste services" | ||
| Construction | ||
| "Transport | ||
| postal | ||
| and warehousing" | ||
| "Services excluding transport | ||
| postal | ||
| and warehousing" | ||
| Total all industries |
In the March 2021 quarter, seasonally adjusted figures show total industry and households' emissions were up 1.1 percent, largely driven by a 28 percent increase (552 kilotonnes) in electricity, gas, water, and waste services emissions. GDP increased 1.6 percent in the same March quarter.
Household emissions in the March 2021 quarter fell 7.6 percent following sharp increases in the December and September 2020 quarters. Direct emissions from households saw a 3.7 percent (360 kilotonnes) drop over the year ended March 2021 due to the 24 percent decrease in the June 2020 quarter.
Over the year ended March 2021, households (which make up 12 percent of total emissions) experienced a timeseries low in the June 2020 quarter and a timeseries high in the December 2020 quarter, as COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions were initially implemented and then lifted.
"With international borders closed and overseas travel restricted, households' use of road and domestic air transport picked up following lockdown, increasing their emissions in the September and December 2020 quarters," Mr Oakley said.
Stats NZ quarterly emissions estimates can be used to track gross emissions in a timely fashion and show how these change in relation to economic activity. The estimates use data from Stats NZ's Greenhouse gas emissions (industry and household): Year ended 2019, which draws on New Zealand's Greenhouse Gas Inventory, New Zealand's official source of emissions and removals, reported annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
This is the third time Stats NZ has produced quarterly experimental estimates of New Zealand's gross emissions on a United Nations System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA) basis. This is a statistical framework endorsed by the United Nations, OECD, and IMF, and it is used by over 70 National Statistics Offices (NSOs) for a range of accounts.
Feedback
Stats NZ welcomes feedback on the methodology used to produce these new experimental estimates as it is the intention to develop them into official statistics. If you would like to provide feedback, please complete the feedback form - Greenhouse gas emissions (industry and household) quarterly.
Experimental emissions data is also now available in graphical form on the COVID-19 data portal under the 'Environmental' tab.
About the data
This experimental release on quarterly production-based emissions is done within the SEEA framework to track emissions in relation to economic activity. The SEEA production-based emissions estimates transform the greenhouse gas inventory data to be consistent with economic classifications and concepts by changing the unit of analysis (from a process-based approach, for example, energy and waste, to a standard production-based industrial classification, for example, ANZSIC06) and applying the residency principle. This means deducting emissions from non-residents operating on the domestic territory (for example, international tourists driving vehicles) and adding emissions from residents operating overseas (for example, international aviation or shipping companies).
The greenhouse gas inventory is based on the territory principle. It is best suited for understanding New Zealand's greenhouse gas profile (in both gross and net terms) and identifying the source processes that generate emissions within the territory. New Zealand's Greenhouse Gas Inventory is the official source of New Zealand's emissions and removals data and is reported annually to the UNFCCC. It is also the basis on which progress towards targets are determined.
The latest annual benchmarks used in the March 2021 quarter estimates are from the December 2019 year.
Greenhouse gas emissions (industry and household): September 2020 quarter - methodology and results has more information on the sources and methods used to produce these statistics.
Due to the experimental nature of the data, revisions are expected as Stats NZ refines the methodology and gradually improves the quality of the series. Quarterly emissions estimates are based on information available at the time of compilation. Revisions to the time series will also result from the incorporation of updated annual benchmarks and quarterly indicators.
See previous greenhouse gas emissions releases:
- Greenhouse gas emissions (industry and household): December 2020 quarter
- Greenhouse gas emissions (industry and household): September 2020 quarter
- Greenhouse gas emissions (industry and household): Year ended 2019
- Greenhouse gas emissions by region (industry and household): Year ended 2018
- Greenhouse gas emissions (consumption-based): Year ended 2017
