Annual net migration down in 2020

Annual net migration continued to fall steadily, down to a provisional net gain of 44,100 in the year ended December 2020, with COVID-19-related border and travel restrictions limiting migrant arrivals and departures since March, Stats NZ said today.

"Monthly net migration since March 2020 is a trickle compared with levels seen in recent years and as a result annual net migration is falling," population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said.

"Far fewer migrants arrived or left the country in 2020, compared with recent years."

Migration estimates, available from 2001 onwards, show both annual migrant arrivals and migrant departures in the year ended December 2020 are the lowest of any annual period. We still have a net migration gain as migrant arrivals are higher than migrant departures.

There were provisionally 85,800 migrant arrivals, and 41,600 migrant departures.

As a result, net migration in the year ended December 2020 is provisionally estimated at 44,100, with 87 percent occurring in the first three months of the year, prior to border and travel restrictions in March 2020.

"Annual net migration ramped up before border closures and travel restrictions in March 2020 and has been falling away since then," Mr Islam said.

Annual net migration reached a provisional peak of 94,900 in March 2020. This was due to many people who arrived in New Zealand being unable to, or choosing not to, return overseas as the COVID-19 pandemic developed.

"With slowing net migration, New Zealand's population growth is lower than at any other time in the last seven years," Mr Islam said.

National population estimates: At 31 December 2020 - Infoshare tables will be released on 18 February 2021.

Text alternative for diagram International migration estimates (provisional), year ended December 2020:

Diagram shows outcomes-based (provisional) estimates of migration, by citizenship (New Zealand or non-New Zealand), for the year ended December 2020. Overall, net migration is 44,100, made up of a net gain of 21,800 NZ citizens (based on 33,500 migrant arrivals, a 19 percent decrease on the year ended 2019, and 11,700 migrant departures, a 69 percent decrease) and a net gain of 22,300 non-NZ citizens (based on 52,200 migrant arrivals, a 58 percent decrease on the year ended 2019, and 29,900 migrant departures, a 46 percent decrease).

Fewer NZ citizens departing drives small net migration gain

Since border restrictions in March 2020, the net migration gain has been driven by New Zealand citizens.

The small net migration gain overall of 5,700 from April 2020 to December 2020 was made up of a net gain of 12,600 New Zealand citizens and a net loss of 6,900 non-New Zealand citizens.

This is an average gain of about 600 people a month and well below the average monthly gain of 6,300 from the same nine months in 2019.

"New Zealand citizens are driving the small net migration gain, continuing a reversal of the historical pattern where net migration gains were dominated by non-New Zealand citizens," Mr Islam said.

As the graphs below show, there were few migrant departures of New Zealand citizens in 2020, while migrant arrivals of New Zealand citizens were only slightly lower than in previous years. There were 33,500 migrant arrivals of New Zealand citizens in the year ended December 2020. Of these, half arrived in the first three months of 2020.

Border crossings down by 75 percent in 2020

There were 3.5 million border crossings in 2020, down 10.7 million (75 percent) on 2019.

This includes all arrivals and departures, either for short-term trips or longer term, and by people living overseas or in New Zealand.

There were 240,800 border crossings in the nine months from April 2020 to December 2020, made up of 90,400 arrivals and 150,400 departures. In the same nine months in 2019 there were 10.3 million border crossings, made up of 5.2 million arrivals and 5.1 million departures.

From April 2020 to December 2020, 59,000 arrivals (65 percent) were by New Zealand citizens and 31,400 (35 percent) were by non-New Zealand citizens.

Non-New Zealand citizens include: people arriving on residence, work, or critical purpose visas; Australian citizens and permanent residents; and others who meet border entry criteria .

From April 2020 to December 2020, 114,900 departures (76 percent) were by non-New Zealand citizens and 35,500 (24 percent) were by New Zealand citizens.

Who is a migrant

'Migrant arrivals' are overseas residents, including New Zealand citizens living overseas, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months in New Zealand after arriving.

'Migrant departures' are New Zealand residents, including non-New Zealand citizens living in New Zealand, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months out of New Zealand after departing.

Migrant arrivals and departures include the flows of New Zealand citizens as well as the flows of non-New Zealand citizens as both affect the population living in New Zealand. The classification of travellers as migrants is based on their time spent in and out of New Zealand, not what visa type or passport they cross the border on, and not on their responses on arrival cards. Given this, we need to observe up to 16 months of travel history, using the 12/16-month rule, to definitively classify a border crossing as a migrant movement. Border crossing data after December 2020 therefore informs the latest migration estimates.