Asian Ethnic Population Projected To Increase

Around 33 percent of Aotearoa New Zealand's population are likely to identify with Asian ethnicities in 2048, up from 19 percent in 2023, according to projections released by Stats NZ today.

Within the broad Asian grouping, those identifying with Indian ethnicities are projected to increase from 7 percent of New Zealand's population in 2023 to around 12 percent in 2048. Over the same period, those identifying with Chinese ethnicities are projected to increase from 6 percent to around 8 percent.

The projections also indicate above average growth of the populations identifying with Māori, Pacific, and Middle Eastern/Latin American/African (MELAA) ethnicities over the next two decades. This continues the demographic trends of recent decades.

In contrast, the population identifying with 'European or Other (including New Zealander)' ethnicities is projected to remain around 3.5 million people.

"Our ethnic populations are changing at different rates because of a combination of different age structures, birth and death rates, and patterns of migration," population estimates and projections spokesperson Victoria Treliving said.

As a result of different growth rates, the proportion of New Zealand's population identifying with Māori ethnicity is projected to increase from 18 percent in 2023 to around 20 percent in 2048. Over the 25-year projection period, the Pacific ethnic proportion is likely to increase from 9 percent to around 11 percent, and the MELAA ethnic proportion is projected to increase from 2 percent to around 4 percent.

"The 'European or Other' ethnic population is the only major ethnic group projected to decrease as a proportion of New Zealand's population," Treliving said.

"This dropped from 79 percent in 2001 to 67 percent in 2023, and is projected to drop to around 52 percent in 2048."

The ethnic populations overlap because people can and do identify with multiple ethnicities. As a result, the ethnic proportions are non-additive, meaning that they cannot be added together because they total more than 100 percent. In the 2023 Census, 15 percent of people identified with more than one ethnicity. This proportion is projected to grow, especially among younger people.

Young population particularly diverse

Each ethnic group as a proportion of the total New Zealand population varies significantly by age. Among those aged under 15 years, the proportions largely reflect the ethnic diversity of births.

"About two-thirds of children identified with European ethnicities in 2023, but a growing proportion are likely to identify with other ethnicities by 2048," Treliving said.

The proportion of children identifying with different ethnicities is projected to increase as follows:

• Māori ethnicity, from 28 percent in 2023 to around 31 percent in 2048
• Asian ethnicities, from 20 percent in 2023 to around 34 percent in 2048
  • Indian ethnicities, from 7 percent in 2023 to around 14 percent in 2048
• Pacific ethnicities, from 15 percent in 2023 to around 19 percent in 2048
• MELAA ethnicities, from 2 percent in 2023 to around 5 percent in 2048.

All ethnic populations are ageing

The projections indicate that all ethnic populations will have more people, and a higher share of their population, in the 65 years and over (65+) age group.

The share of the 'European or Other' ethnic population aged 65+ is projected to increase from 20 percent in 2023 to around 29 percent in 2048. The increase in the 65+ share is significant for the Chinese ethnic population, from 12 percent in 2023 to around 22 percent in 2048.

"Across all ethnic populations, this ageing is driven by lower fertility rates over time," Treliving said.

"Migration and increasing life expectancy also contribute to ageing."

Births and deaths: Year ended March 2025 and National and subnational period life tables: 2022-2024 give fertility rates and life expectancies, respectively, for New Zealand's major ethnic populations for the 2022─2024 period.

Further projections

These 2023-base projections provide an indication of future ethnic population changes, based on demographic trends and current policy settings, to assist communities and agencies with planning and policy formulation. Over the coming months, Stats NZ will also publish updated projections of subnational populations.