Population estimates incorporating 2018 Census results and estimates of census coverage (net census undercount) from the 2018 post-enumeration survey (PES) will be available by March 2020, Stats NZ said today.
Once the new 'estimated resident population' based on the 2018 Census is available, related population statistics including demographic projections and life tables can be updated. New projections will be progressively released from mid-2020.
The first release of census data will start from 23 September 2019, including the census usually resident population counts, the number of general and Māori electorates, and the general and Māori electoral population counts.
"We always produce population estimates and projections after a census to keep New Zealanders informed about our changing population," says population estimates and projections manager Michelle Feyen.
"The five-yearly census is an important recalibration of those estimates and projections, especially for our geographic and ethnic sub-populations."
Understanding different population measures
With the release of 2018 Census counts from September 2019 and the ongoing release of population estimates (national - quarterly; subnational - annually), we want users to be aware of the differences between various population measures. The census counts are not directly comparable with the population estimates (estimated resident population, or ERP), because the estimates include people not counted by the census. See figures 1 and 2.
The difference between estimates and projections is also important. Estimates are an indication of population size, structure, and change, usually for dates in the past. Estimates typically use recorded data about births, deaths, and migration.
Projections are an indication of future population size, structure, and change. Projections typically use assumptions about future births, deaths, and migration; or assumptions about underlying birth rates, death rates, and migration rates. We generally update different projections every 2-3 years to incorporate the latest demographic data and trends.
| Census night population count | Census usually resident population count | Estimated resident population | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visitors from overseas in New Zealand on census night | ||||
| Residents in New Zealand on census night | Residents in New Zealand on census night | Residents in New Zealand on census night | ||
| *Residents missed by census (net census undercount) | ||||
| *Residents temporarily overseas on census night | ||||
| *Births, deaths, and net migration since census night |
*Estimated using data sources other than census.
| Census night population count | Census usually resident population count | Estimated resident population | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visitors from overseas in the area on census night | ||||
| Residents of other areas of New Zealand in the area on census night | ||||
| Residents of that area in the area on census night | Residents of that area in the area on census night | Residents of that area in the area on census night | ||
| Residents elsewhere in New Zealand on census night | Residents elsewhere in New Zealand on census night | |||
| *Residents missed by census (net census undercount) | ||||
| *Residents temporarily overseas on census night | ||||
| *Births, deaths, and net migration since census night |
* Estimated using data sources other than census.
Schedule of population-related releases directly affected by 2018 Census
| Date (indicative only beyond 2019) | Release of population statistics |
|---|---|
| 23 September 2019 | First release of 2018 Census data (census usually resident population counts, number of general and Māori electorates, general and Māori electoral population counts) |
| Number of electorates and electoral populations: 2018 Census | |
| 7 October 2019 | Dwelling and household estimates: September 2019 quarter (private dwellings 2018-base, households 2013-base) |
| 22 October 2019 | Subnational population estimates: At 30 June 2019 (provisional) (2013-base, incorporating new migration estimates) |
| 14 November 2019 | National population estimates: At 30 September 2019 - Infoshare tables (2013-base) |
| 9 January 2020 | Dwelling and household estimates: December 2019 quarter (private dwellings 2018-base, households 2013-base) |
| 18 February 2020 | National population estimates: At 31 December 2019 - Infoshare tables (2013-base) |
| March 2020 | Post-enumeration survey: 2018 (PES results) |
| 2018-base estimated resident population (based on 2018 Census and 2018 PES) | |
| Estimated resident population 2018: Data sources and methods | |
| Revised national population estimates, September 2013 to December 2019 (quarterly series) | |
| Revised subnational population estimates, June 2014 to June 2019 (annual series) | |
| Revised Māori population estimates, June 2014 to June 2019 (annual series) | |
| April 2020 | Dwelling and household estimates: March 2020 quarter (private dwellings 2018-base, households 2013-base) |
| May 2020 | National population estimates: At 31 March 2020 - Infoshare tables (2018-base) |
| Māori population estimates: At 31 December 2020 (2018-base, mean year ended) | |
| Revised demographic indices, September 2013 to March 2020 (fertility, mortality, marriage and civil union, divorce) | |
| June 2020 | National population projections (2019-base) |
| 2017-19 national complete period life tables (by major ethnic groups) | |
| July 2020 | Dwelling and household estimates: June 2020 quarter (private dwellings 2018-base, households 2013-base) |
| August 2020 | National population estimates: At 30 June 2020 - Infoshare tables (2018-base) |
| September 2020 | 2017-19 subnational abridged period life tables (regions, territorial authority areas, Auckland local board areas; DHBs by major ethnic groups) |
| October 2020 | Dwelling and household estimates: September 2020 quarter (private dwellings 2018-base, households 2013-base) |
| Subnational population estimates: At 30 June 2020 (provisional) (2018-base) | |
| November 2020 | National population estimates: At 30 September 2020 - Infoshare tables (2018-base) |
| Māori population estimates: At 30 June 2020 (2018-base) | |
| December 2020 | Subnational population projections (2018-base: regions, territorial authority areas, Auckland local board areas) |
