Export prices riding high on meat and dairy

Export lamb and beef prices reached new highs in the September 2019 quarter, while forestry products fell sharply, Stats NZ said today.

“Both meat and dairy product export prices were up in the September quarter, following similar rises in the June quarter,” business price manager Bryan Downes said.

“In contrast, forestry product export prices, mainly logs, had the largest quarterly fall in over 10 years.”

In total, export prices rose 1.9 percent in the September 2019 quarter to their highest in over 10 years, while import prices remained flat. The overall terms of trade remained at high levels, close to peaks seen in late 2017, when export prices for dairy and meat were also high.

Terms of trade is a measure of the purchasing power of New Zealand’s exports abroad and is an indicator of the state of the overall economy.

Meat prices rose 4.8 percent in the September 2019 quarter, surpassing last quarter’s high. This was driven by both higher prices for lamb (up 6.0 percent), and beef (up 5.4 percent). Both lamb and beef prices are at their highest-ever levels.

“Lamb and beef prices rose this year at the same time as international demand for meat increased,” Mr Downes said.

“The higher demand for meat was largely due to the African swine fever outbreak in China, resulting in reduced pork supplies being substituted with alternatives.

“New Zealand consumers are also seeing higher meat prices – bacon and ham prices rose more than 20 percent for the year to October 2019.”

Quarter Total exports Dairy Meat Forestry
Sep 09 973 943 1028 906
Dec 09 970 993 943 905
Mar 10 1072 1311 976 1005
Jun 10 1112 1390 1019 1053
Sep 10 1112 1489 1024 1011
Dec 10 1118 1358 1076 1019
Mar 11 1188 1433 1183 1063
Jun 11 1211 1498 1217 1059
Sep 11 1162 1427 1159 964
Dec 11 1182 1411 1197 971
Mar 12 1138 1331 1154 929
Jun 12 1126 1296 1128 928
Sep 12 1055 1127 1061 921
Dec 12 1036 1096 1065 914
Mar 13 1056 1171 1032 938
Jun 13 1089 1329 1009 970
Sep 13 1185 1648 1080 1040
Dec 13 1182 1630 1077 1018
Mar 14 1191 1668 1091 1035
Jun 14 1164 1596 1093 952
Sep 14 1111 1413 1141 912
Dec 14 1091 1203 1282 986
Mar 15 1048 1127 1228 992
Jun 15 1071 1194 1203 935
Sep 15 1107 1193 1300 1002
Dec 15 1044 1041 1235 1020
Mar 16 1040 1094 1157 1060
Jun 16 1020 1017 1167 1066
Sep 16 992 984 1131 1017
Dec 16 1041 1120 1149 1047
Mar 17 1113 1323 1179 1081
Jun 17 1138 1375 1292 1120
Sep 17 1119 1364 1277 1118
Dec 17 1180 1457 1368 1194
Mar 18 1154 1359 1334 1191
Jun 18 1183 1402 1383 1195
Sep 18 1225 1489 1402 1213
Dec 18 1203 1404 1398 1220
Mar 19 1172 1297 1390 1221
Jun 19 1210 1435 1459 1198
Sep 19 1233 1563 1529 1082

Seasonally adjusted export meat volumes were up 1.4 percent and values were up 8.0 percent in the September 2019 quarter. Lamb volumes fell 0.7 percent while values rose 7.9 percent. Beef volumes rose 2.9 percent and values were up 7.4 percent.

Dairy product prices rose 8.9 percent in the September 2019 quarter, with milk powder up 9.6 percent, butter up 7.3 percent, and cheese up 6.2 percent.

Forestry product prices fell 9.7 percent in the September 2019 quarter, following a 1.9 percent fall last quarter. Forestry product volumes fell 5.5 percent and values fell 12 percent.

Quarter Volumes Prices
Jun 90 447 822
Sep 90 503 810
Dec 90 518 794
Mar 91 510 802
Jun 91 516 801
Sep 91 598 798
Dec 91 603 785
Mar 92 561 802
Jun 92 599 807
Sep 92 606 819
Dec 92 647 866
Mar 93 684 914
Jun 93 684 1050
Sep 93 573 1142
Dec 93 589 1002
Mar 94 689 993
Jun 94 649 971
Sep 94 701 973
Dec 94 681 975
Mar 95 679 991
Jun 95 695 993
Sep 95 686 1013
Dec 95 657 1033
Mar 96 688 977
Jun 96 695 894
Sep 96 706 875
Dec 96 750 850
Mar 97 696 809
Jun 97 786 799
Sep 97 757 848
Dec 97 698 867
Mar 98 703 863
Jun 98 660 846
Sep 98 702 851
Dec 98 795 823
Mar 99 791 832
Jun 99 758 844
Sep 99 866 901
Dec 99 838 958
Mar 00 863 995
Jun 00 958 1045
Sep 00 795 1142
Dec 00 847 1128
Mar 01 876 1067
Jun 01 922 979
Sep 01 960 973
Dec 01 963 981
Mar 02 911 1011
Jun 02 992 1000
Sep 02 1026 973
Dec 02 1021 921
Mar 03 1027 854
Jun 03 935 843
Sep 03 930 826
Dec 03 936 846
Mar 04 1022 849
Jun 04 1025 878
Sep 04 1006 826
Dec 04 1029 792
Mar 05 982 805
Jun 05 1018 818
Sep 05 978 809
Dec 05 992 795
Mar 06 1021 823
Jun 06 990 880
Sep 06 1053 889
Dec 06 1049 893
Mar 07 990 919
Jun 07 1001 908
Sep 07 997 890
Dec 07 1002 872
Mar 08 1017 879
Jun 08 965 898
Sep 08 1019 941
Dec 08 973 1044
Mar 09 895 1042
Jun 09 1044 909
Sep 09 1065 906
Dec 09 1050 905
Mar 10 1085 1005
Jun 10 1124 1053
Sep 10 1100 1011
Dec 10 1198 1019
Mar 11 1230 1063
Jun 11 1195 1059
Sep 11 1212 964
Dec 11 1171 971
Mar 12 1198 929
Jun 12 1272 928
Sep 12 1224 921
Dec 12 1278 914
Mar 13 1271 938
Jun 13 1267 970
Sep 13 1358 1040
Dec 13 1322 1018
Mar 14 1357 1035
Jun 14 1269 952
Sep 14 1210 912
Dec 14 1311 986
Mar 15 1251 992
Jun 15 1272 935
Sep 15 1236 1002
Dec 15 1251 1020
Mar 16 1310 1060
Jun 16 1327 1066
Sep 16 1369 1017
Dec 16 1284 1047
Mar 17 1304 1081
Jun 17 1351 1120
Sep 17 1364 1118
Dec 17 1442 1194
Mar 18 1397 1191
Jun 18 1411 1195
Sep 18 1479 1213
Dec 18 1454 1220
Mar 19 1486 1221
Jun 19 1453 1198
Sep 19 1373 1082

Overall export volumes, adjusted for seasonal effects, fell 4.6 percent, and values fell 2.0 percent in the September 2019 quarter.

Import volumes up

Overall import volumes, adjusted for seasonal effects, rose 1.1 percent in the September 2019 quarter, with passenger motor cars driving this increase, up 20 percent.

Total import prices were flat, while values were up 0.7 percent.

Terms of trade up 1.9 percent

The merchandise terms of trade rose 1.9 percent, as export prices rose more than import prices. An increase means New Zealand can buy more imports for the same amount of exports.

/Stats NZ Public Release. View in full here.