Greenhouse gas emissions bounce back in September 2020 quarter

New experimental figures show quarterly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rebounded in the September 2020 quarter, after a sharp fall in the June 2020 quarter during the COVID-19 national lockdown, Stats NZ said today.

Seasonally adjusted data showed total emissions were down 8.1 percent (1,641 kilotonnes) in the June quarter as most New Zealanders were forced to stay home during lockdown.

Emissions have since rebounded, up 9.1 percent (1,682 kilotonnes) in the September quarter.

"Emissions have returned to a similar level as they were at the start of 2020, before COVID-19 started to cause restrictions on the economy, households, and travel," environmental-economic accounts manager Stephen Oakley said.

"Overall the bounceback in industry and household emissions was seen across the board."

See History of the COVID-19 alert system for a timeline of COVID-19 events.

Emissions for all seven industries published in this experimental release were down in the June quarter, but all saw an increase in emissions again in the September quarter (although agriculture, forestry, and fishing remained virtually unchanged).

The changes in national GHG emissions can be compared with gross domestic product (GDP), which fell 11 percent in the June 2020 quarter, followed by a 14 percent rise in the September quarter. .

"This new quarterly emissions data was produced in response to customers wanting more timely insights into New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions," Mr Oakley said.

"It's been given the experimental label as we're now one of the few countries around the world that have explored and produced emissions estimates at this frequency. Once we receive external feedback, we hope to make them official statistics."

Currently, Stats NZ's GHG data is produced on an annual basis with an 18-month lag, whereas this new experimental release provides data up to and including the September 2020 quarter.

"Recent global events have highlighted the need to see short-term impacts on both the economy and emissions, and to be able to make comparisons between the two," Mr Oakley said.

Measuring GHG emissions on a quarterly basis, using an industry classification consistent with those used in producing GDP, allows Stats NZ to quickly identify what emissions path the economy is on as it begins to bounce back, and whether emissions are tracking or diverging from economic growth.

The decrease in emissions in the June quarter was less than the drop in GDP, as many emissions-intensive industries, such as agriculture and parts of manufacturing, managed to carry on through COVID-19 lockdowns. The bounceback in emissions in the September quarter was also less than the increase in GDP as low-emissions-intensive activity, such as services, recovered strongly, boosting GDP more than emissions.

Emissions from goods-producing industries were flat in the June 2020 quarter, but saw the largest increase in the September 2020 quarter, up 553 kilotonnes (11 percent).

The electricity, gas, water, and waste services group was the main contributor to the rise in goods-producing industries, up 26 percent. A dry quarter reduced hydro inflow and as a result there was stronger reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation.

Direct emissions from households (which make up 12 percent of total emissions) also rebounded from a drop of 27 percent in the June quarter.

"This rebound saw greenhouse gas emission levels from households in the September quarter almost back to levels seen pre COVID-19," Mr Oakley said.

"Household use of road transport and increased fuel use for heating were the main causes of this increase in emissions between the June and September quarters."

Greenhouse gas emissions (industry and household): September 2020 quarter includes a detailed sources and methods paper, high-level tables, and results by industry and households.

Feedback

Stats NZ welcomes feedback on the methodology used to produce these new experimental estimates, as it is the intention to develop them into official statistics. If you would like to provide feedback, please complete the feedback form.

About the data

This experimental release on quarterly production-based emissions is done within the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework, in order to track emissions in relation to economic activity. The SEEA production-based emissions estimates transform the New Zealand's greenhouse gas inventory data to be consistent with economic classifications and concepts by changing the unit of analysis and applying the residency principle. This means deducting emissions from non-residents operating on the domestic territory (for example, international tourists driving vehicles) and adding emissions from residents operating overseas (for example, international aviation or shipping).

Due to the experimental nature of the data, revisions are expected as methods are refined and Stats NZ gradually improves on the quality of the series. Quarterly emissions estimates are based on information available at the time of compilation. Revisions to the time series will also result from the incorporation of updated annual benchmarks and quarterly indicators.

See previous greenhouse gas emissions releases:

• Greenhouse gas emissions (industry and household): Year ended 2018
• Greenhouse gas emissions (consumption-based): Year ended 2017
• Greenhouse gas emissions by region (industry and household): Year ended 2018.