International migration estimates extended back to 2001

Estimates of migrant arrivals, migrant departures, and net migration using the new measure of migration are now available back to January 2001, Stats NZ said today.

“Extending the time series further back, from 2014 to 2001, is good news for customers who want a long, consistent series for analysis and forecasting,” population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said.

Stats NZ introduced the new outcomes-based measure in 2017 with an experimental series, and in January 2019, the new measure became the official measure of migration. Adopting the outcomes-based migration measure allows us to measure actual passenger behaviour rather than their stated intentions when they are crossing the border. The new estimates supersede the published experimental series and intentions-based series from 2001.

The extended outcomes series highlights the ups and downs in New Zealand’s net migration balance. It also shows that, at times, actual net migration has been different from that suggested by measuring intentions. However, it also generally confirms the patterns and trends measured by the intentions-based series.

The early 2000s saw significant net migration gains, driven by relatively high migrant arrivals and low migrant departures (figure 1). The new extended migration series shows that these net migration gains were even higher than previously indicated by the intentions-based series. For example, annual net migration peaked at 60,700 in the year ended February 2003, rather than peaking at 42,500 in the year ended May 2003 as reported at the time.

Figure 1

Year ended Migrant arrivals: outcomes-based Migrant arrivals: intentions-based Migrant departures: outcomes-based Migrant departures: intentions-based Net migration: outcomes-based Net migration: intentions-based
Dec-01 115365 81094 84243 71368 31122 9726
Jan-02 118811 84422 81100 68083 37711 16339
Feb-02 120385 86314 77729 64322 42656 21992
Mar-02 123461 88365 76141 62730 47320 25635
Apr-02 125122 89884 75249 61819 49873 28065
May-02 126709 91182 73395 59951 53314 31231
Jun-02 128471 92663 73158 59848 55313 32815
Jul-02 129896 93927 72990 59346 56906 34581
Aug-02 131744 94980 72938 58777 58806 36203
Sep-02 132763 95417 72896 58307 59867 37110
Oct-02 133259 95555 73098 58085 60161 37470
Nov-02 133966 96071 73382 57886 60584 38185
Dec-02 134642 95951 74006 57753 60636 38198
Jan-03 134766 96238 74260 57191 60506 39047
Feb-03 134787 98723 74084 57166 60703 41557
Mar-03 133788 98671 74474 57079 59314 41592
Apr-03 132967 98154 74180 56107 58787 42047
May-03 132186 98002 74143 55461 58043 42541
Jun-03 130759 97250 74032 54733 56727 42517
Jul-03 129451 96819 74769 54732 54682 42087
Aug-03 127586 96245 75518 55091 52068 41154
Sep-03 125537 95540 75935 55103 49602 40437
Oct-03 123843 94913 76348 55599 47495 39314
Nov-03 121548 93426 77735 56654 43813 36772
Dec-03 120269 92660 79316 57754 40953 34906
Jan-04 117870 91521 79897 58195 37973 33326
Feb-04 115684 89120 81024 59045 34660 30075
Mar-04 113077 87473 81536 59495 31541 27978
Apr-04 111341 86187 82611 60475 28730 25712
May-04 110376 85180 83798 61197 26578 23983
Jun-04 109242 84285 85149 62277 24093 22008
Jul-04 107706 83547 86244 62975 21462 20572
Aug-04 106445 82499 86498 63205 19947 19294
Sep-04 105504 81823 87355 64066 18149 17757
Oct-04 104443 81347 87843 64392 16600 16955
Nov-04 103635 80882 88478 64548 15157 16334
Dec-04 103378 80479 89577 65371 13801 15108
Jan-05 102547 79267 90231 66459 12316 12808
Feb-05 102065 78242 90814 67111 11251 11131
Mar-05 102183 78064 91512 68051 10671 10013
Apr-05 102795 78511 92373 69162 10422 9349
May-05 103127 78810 92621 70011 10506 8799
Jun-05 103298 79139 92642 70546 10656 8593
Jul-05 102901 78553 93350 71665 9551 6888
Aug-05 103260 78931 93608 72313 9652 6618
Sep-05 103664 78939 93620 72534 10044 6405
Oct-05 103985 79010 93982 73010 10003 6000
Nov-05 103780 78741 93209 72584 10571 6157
Dec-05 103909 78963 92925 71992 10984 6971
Jan-06 103892 78658 92761 71701 11131 6957
Feb-06 104552 79418 92262 71144 12290 8274
Mar-06 105139 80125 91642 70386 13497 9739
Apr-06 105154 79933 91664 69858 13490 10075
May-06 104994 79914 91784 69722 13210 10192
Jun-06 105413 80076 92221 69388 13192 10688
Jul-06 106478 80693 91614 68550 14864 12143
Aug-06 107156 80932 92231 68442 14925 12490
Sep-06 108003 81641 92885 68441 15118 13200
Oct-06 108632 82153 93469 68396 15163 13757
Nov-06 110037 82920 93722 68163 16315 14757
Dec-06 110487 82732 94222 68123 16265 14609
Jan-07 110963 82793 94820 68677 16143 14116
Feb-07 111511 82456 95959 69305 15552 13151
Mar-07 112377 82531 96978 70450 15399 12081
Apr-07 112605 82416 97547 71194 15058 11222
May-07 112955 82428 98652 71746 14303 10682
Jun-07 113396 82700 99399 72622 13997 10078
Jul-07 113126 82480 100000 73514 13126 8966
Aug-07 113863 82968 100644 74238 13219 8730
Sep-07 113915 83004 101081 74695 12834 8309
Oct-07 113930 82660 101280 75143 12650 7517
Nov-07 113812 82588 102029 76000 11783 6588
Dec-07 113392 82572 102741 77081 10651 5491
Jan-08 113089 82468 103348 77669 9741 4799
Feb-08 114461 83296 104134 78653 10327 4643
Mar-08 114691 83519 104468 78841 10223 4678
Apr-08 115453 83993 104888 79327 10565 4666
May-08 116847 84847 105285 79916 11562 4931
Jun-08 117711 85239 105865 80507 11846 4732
Jul-08 119072 86073 106530 80872 12542 5201
Aug-08 119537 86706 107257 81768 12280 4938
Sep-08 119442 86657 107293 82254 12149 4403
Oct-08 120067 87353 107972 83024 12095 4329
Nov-08 120006 87351 108502 83782 11504 3569
Dec-08 120254 87463 108108 83649 12146 3814
Jan-09 120750 88201 107922 83663 12828 4538
Feb-09 120347 88594 106682 82434 13665 6160
Mar-09 119707 88873 105696 81391 14011 7482
Apr-09 118732 88989 103904 79813 14828 9176
May-09 117436 88867 101842 77665 15594 11202
Jun-09 115952 88251 99764 75736 16188 12515
Jul-09 114946 88359 98059 73871 16887 14488
Aug-09 113344 87496 96091 71854 17253 15642
Sep-09 112427 87209 94714 70166 17713 17043
Oct-09 111104 86701 93114 68141 17990 18560
Nov-09 109795 86533 91739 66512 18056 20021
Dec-09 108361 86410 90288 65157 18073 21253
Jan-10 106944 86010 89156 63422 17788 22588
Feb-10 105191 84844 89336 63226 15855 21618
Mar-10 104304 84336 89825 63363 14479 20973
Apr-10 103504 83620 90466 63666 13038 19954
May-10 102543 82850 91662 64883 10881 17967
Jun-10 101786 82305 92895 65801 8891 16504
Jul-10 101348 81889 94008 66668 7340 15221
Aug-10 101388 82106 95249 67599 6139 14507
Sep-10 101281 82412 96447 68498 4834 13914
Oct-10 101374 82708 97959 70098 3415 12610
Nov-10 101022 82687 99047 71168 1975 11519
Dec-10 100645 82469 100776 72018 -131 10451
Jan-11 100248 82433 102633 73744 -2385 8689
Feb-11 100669 82772 103610 74523 -2941 8249
Mar-11 100782 83015 106135 76461 -5353 6554
Apr-11 101013 83456 108122 77948 -7109 5508
May-11 101150 83781 109486 79156 -8336 4625
Jun-11 101026 84016 110299 80149 -9273 3867
Jul-11 101271 84645 112166 81778 -10895 2867
Aug-11 101319 85087 113176 82830 -11857 2257
Sep-11 101066 84801 113595 84028 -12529 773
Oct-11 100411 84272 114331 84375 -13920 -103
Nov-11 100659 84442 115161 85010 -14502 -568
Dec-11 100255 84187 116194 86042 -15939 -1855
Jan-12 100112 83590 116513 86724 -16401 -3134
Feb-12 100290 83946 117111 88014 -16821 -4068
Mar-12 100833 84384 116149 87767 -15316 -3383
Apr-12 100251 83807 115630 87813 -15379 -4006
May-12 100278 83789 115116 87442 -14838 -3653
Jun-12 100966 84402 115464 87593 -14498 -3191
Jul-12 100249 83676 114560 87475 -14311 -3799
Aug-12 100043 83221 114306 87339 -14263 -4118
Sep-12 100387 83629 114183 86909 -13796 -3280
Oct-12 100940 84335 113336 86654 -12396 -2319
Nov-12 101321 84649 112684 86216 -11363 -1567
Dec-12 102136 85255 112234 86420 -10098 -1165
Jan-13 102792 85659 111211 85647 -8419 12
Feb-13 102511 85573 109819 84378 -7308 1195
Mar-13 102862 86026 108590 83484 -5728 2542
Apr-13 104071 87217 107378 82441 -3307 4776
May-13 105032 87778 106885 81536 -1853 6242
Jun-13 106322 88235 105493 80328 829 7907
Jul-13 107852 89275 104342 78706 3510 10569
Aug-13 108860 90329 102788 77481 6072 12848
Sep-13 109436 91187 101238 76013 8198 15174
Oct-13 110757 92143 99949 74653 10808 17490
Nov-13 111901 93027 98412 73549 13489 19478
Dec-13 113396 93965 96084 71497 17312 22468
Jan-14 114497 95161 94378 69495 20119 25666
Feb-14 116701 96852 92964 67830 23737 29022
Mar-14 118026 97995 91342 66081 26684 31914
Apr-14 119062 98811 89977 64445 29085 34366
May-14 120042 99874 88553 63477 31489 36397
Jun-14 120538 100784 87482 62446 33056 38338
Jul-14 122344 102395 86089 61352 36255 41043
Aug-14 124547 103875 85405 60392 39142 43483
Sep-14 126783 105468 85097 60054 41686 45414
Oct-14 128239 107197 84408 59513 43831 47684
Nov-14 129530 108838 84040 59002 45490 49836
Dec-14 130107 109317 83444 58395 46663 50922
Jan-15 132338 111522 83296 57725 49042 53797
Feb-15 132821 112614 83343 57493 49478 55121
Mar-15 134037 113789 83482 57514 50555 56275
Apr-15 134673 114435 83554 57622 51119 56813
May-15 135381 115092 83277 57270 52104 57822
Jun-15 135944 115655 83255 57396 52689 58259
Jul-15 137194 117132 83343 57493 53851 59639
Aug-15 137854 117866 83248 57576 54606 60290
Sep-15 138775 118882 83038 57648 55737 61234
Oct-15 140167 120123 83266 57646 56901 62477
Nov-15 141154 120891 82969 57232 58185 63659
Dec-15 142164 121937 83112 57007 59052 64930
Jan-16 142826 122963 82932 57052 59894 65911
Feb-16 144661 124245 82722 56854 61939 67391
Mar-16 144858 124069 82475 56450 62383 67619
Apr-16 145321 124669 82784 56559 62537 68110
May-16 145939 124828 82760 56396 63179 68432
Jun-16 146336 125055 82488 55965 63848 69090
Jul-16 146563 124995 82657 55980 63906 69015
Aug-16 145832 125003 82570 55884 63262 69119
Sep-16 145783 125642 82709 55688 63074 69954
Oct-16 145403 126117 82542 55835 62861 70282
Nov-16 145391 126657 82984 56303 62407 70354
Dec-16 145461 127305 83383 56717 62078 70588
Jan-17 145645 128290 84081 56985 61564 71305
Feb-17 145339 128816 84645 57483 60694 71333
Mar-17 145025 129518 84596 57586 60429 71932
Apr-17 144662 129779 84782 57894 59880 71885
May-17 144454 130403 85505 58439 58949 71964
Jun-17 144754 131355 86248 59050 58506 72305
Jul-17 144735 132089 86956 59687 57779 72402
Aug-17 144873 132153 87780 60081 57093 72072
Sep-17 144212 131598 88567 60612 55645 70986
Oct-17 143913 131644 89378 60950 54535 70694
Nov-17 143518 131543 89745 61189 53773 70354
Dec-17 143080 131566 90531 61550 52549 70016
Jan-18 143109 131998 90651 61851 52458 70147
Feb-18 141973 130966 90711 62023 51262 68943
Mar-18 142167 130845 91851 62861 50316 67984
Apr-18 141816 130455 92179 63417 49637 67038
May-18 138920 130209 92196 63966 47746 66243
Jun-18 139463.098 129536 90542.616 64541 48920.482 64995
Jul-18 139401.478 129009 90617.046 65230 48784.432 63779
Aug-18 139888.478 129088 90666.488 65800 49221.99 63288
Sep-18 140473.04 128982 90525.174 66249 49947.866 62733
Oct-18 141396.628 128123 90849.026 66372 50547.602 61751
Nov-18 143200.86 91351.374 51849.486
Dec-18 145643.078 91821.164 53821.914
Jan-19 147511.818 92954.074 54557.744
Feb-19 149066.734 93338.446 55728.288
Mar-19 148770.31 93402.714 55367.596
Apr-19 148546.118 93483.078 55063.04
May-19 148507.03 93969.494 54537.536
Jun-19 149014.506 94740.844 54273.662
Jul-19 150103.65 95149.72 54953.93
Aug-19 149834.33 96024.66 53809.67

There was lower net migration over the period 2004 to 2013, with lower migrant arrivals and higher migrant departures than indicated by the intentions-based series. Between December 2010 and May 2013, departures exceeded arrivals. The new extended migration series shows that these net migration losses were slightly greater than previously indicated by the intentions-based series. For example, annual net migration dipped to a loss of 16,800 in the year ended February 2012, rather than dipping to a loss of 4,100 in the year ended August 2012, as reported at the time.

Since 2013, migrant arrivals have been consistently high, resulting in a sustained period of high net migration. In the five years ended June 2019, net migration added about 280,000 people to New Zealand’s population. The new extended migration series shows that annual net migration peaked at 63,900 in the year ended July 2016, compared with a peak of 72,400 in the year ended July 2017 as indicated by the intentions-based series. The July 2016 peak of 63,900 was only slightly above the previous peak of 60,700 in February 2003.

Contrasting migration flows by citizenship

Migrant arrivals and departures include the flows of New Zealand citizens, as well as the flows of non-New Zealand citizens, as both affect the population living in New Zealand.

Migrant arrivals are people who have been living overseas, including New Zealand citizens, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months in New Zealand after arriving.

Migrant departures are people who have been living in New Zealand, including non-New Zealand citizens, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months out of New Zealand after departing.

Recent net migration gains have been driven by non-New Zealand citizens (figure 2). The much smaller net losses of New Zealand citizens have also contributed to the recent high levels of net migration (figure 3). In the five years ended June 2019, net migration added about 310,000 non-New Zealand citizens to, and subtracted about 30,000 New Zealand citizens from, New Zealand’s population.

Figure 2

Year ended Migrant arrivals: outcomes-based Migrant arrivals: intentions-based Migrant departures: outcomes-based Migrant departures: intentions-based Net migration: outcomes-based Net migration: intentions-based
Dec-01 85965 57629 26776 15335 59189 42294
Jan-02 89248 60715 26389 15062 62859 45653
Feb-02 90509 62223 26095 15041 64414 47182
Mar-02 93311 63970 25680 14988 67631 48982
Apr-02 94931 65343 25481 14980 69450 50363
May-02 96242 66370 25426 14932 70816 51438
Jun-02 97804 67691 25453 14967 72351 52724
Jul-02 99016 68895 25625 15117 73391 53778
Aug-02 100420 69705 25678 15023 74742 54682
Sep-02 101182 70020 25846 15070 75336 54950
Oct-02 101637 70320 25999 15122 75638 55198
Nov-02 102114 70778 26632 15342 75482 55436
Dec-02 102337 70533 27438 15641 74899 54892
Jan-03 102054 70694 28020 15805 74034 54889
Feb-03 101655 72822 28300 16062 73355 56760
Mar-03 100343 72523 28930 16312 71413 56211
Apr-03 99153 71767 29218 16350 69935 55417
May-03 98166 71378 29382 16419 68784 54959
Jun-03 96665 70506 29616 16498 67049 54008
Jul-03 95224 69859 30281 16741 64943 53118
Aug-03 93230 68973 30866 17024 62364 51949
Sep-03 91052 67945 31304 17228 59748 50717
Oct-03 89263 67120 31689 17574 57574 49546
Nov-03 87152 65730 32666 18226 54486 47504
Dec-03 86011 64968 33795 18895 52216 46073
Jan-04 83657 63789 34075 19195 49582 44594
Feb-04 81767 61580 34484 19562 47283 42018
Mar-04 79535 60214 34635 19751 44900 40463
Apr-04 78080 59217 35110 20115 42970 39102
May-04 77333 58531 35661 20463 41672 38068
Jun-04 76345 57932 36418 20885 39927 37047
Jul-04 74915 57289 37283 21421 37632 35868
Aug-04 73815 56479 37232 21520 36583 34959
Sep-04 73116 56092 37468 21795 35648 34297
Oct-04 72285 55717 37537 21815 34748 33902
Nov-04 71732 55453 37855 21820 33877 33633
Dec-04 71647 55410 38282 22181 33365 33229
Jan-05 71057 54501 38499 22388 32558 32113
Feb-05 70617 53506 38737 22543 31880 30963
Mar-05 70808 53337 38891 22748 31917 30589
Apr-05 71339 53594 39012 22923 32327 30671
May-05 71755 53890 38987 23054 32768 30836
Jun-05 71994 54177 38853 23161 33141 31016
Jul-05 71702 53666 38822 23441 32880 30225
Aug-05 72203 54170 39016 23696 33187 30474
Sep-05 72689 54265 38944 23683 33745 30582
Oct-05 73000 54449 38942 23703 34058 30746
Nov-05 73047 54530 38244 23282 34803 31248
Dec-05 73296 54798 37901 22790 35395 32008
Jan-06 73281 54363 37563 22645 35718 31718
Feb-06 73976 55166 37137 22378 36839 32788
Mar-06 74501 55891 36821 22087 37680 33804
Apr-06 74618 55818 36804 21872 37814 33946
May-06 74504 55810 36836 21842 37668 33968
Jun-06 75013 56036 36821 21612 38192 34424
Jul-06 76039 56596 36327 21109 39712 35487
Aug-06 76737 56901 36385 20965 40352 35936
Sep-06 77492 57586 36513 20836 40979 36750
Oct-06 78223 58107 36674 20838 41549 37269
Nov-06 79401 58572 36536 20690 42865 37882
Dec-06 80184 58712 36499 20506 43685 38206
Jan-07 80783 59008 36512 20379 44271 38629
Feb-07 81325 58690 36745 20415 44580 38275
Mar-07 82239 58861 36877 20604 45362 38257
Apr-07 82585 58947 36805 20605 45780 38342
May-07 82927 58964 36910 20632 46017 38332
Jun-07 83402 59225 36992 20780 46410 38445
Jul-07 83405 59292 36995 20856 46410 38436
Aug-07 84124 59744 37062 20877 47062 38867
Sep-07 84300 59784 37021 20966 47279 38818
Oct-07 84262 59500 37042 21089 47220 38411
Nov-07 84158 59478 37147 21277 47011 38201
Dec-07 83984 59602 37098 21435 46886 38167
Jan-08 83867 59596 37205 21588 46662 38008
Feb-08 85269 60446 37290 21709 47979 38737
Mar-08 85571 60684 37433 21783 48138 38901
Apr-08 86301 61091 37628 21966 48673 39125
May-08 87626 61827 37866 22122 49760 39705
Jun-08 88423 62203 38018 22178 50405 40025
Jul-08 89610 62952 38420 22423 51190 40529
Aug-08 90047 63433 38612 22634 51435 40799
Sep-08 89962 63462 38750 22662 51212 40800
Oct-08 90372 63939 38917 22733 51455 41206
Nov-08 90294 63982 39280 22908 51014 41074
Dec-08 90072 63910 39514 23044 50558 40866
Jan-09 90210 64393 39784 23189 50426 41204
Feb-09 89558 64574 40065 23164 49493 41410
Mar-09 88652 64653 40274 23210 48378 41443
Apr-09 87474 64513 40287 23225 47187 41288
May-09 85981 64237 40309 23097 45672 41140
Jun-09 84256 63426 40439 23249 43817 40177
Jul-09 82992 63128 40540 23196 42452 39932
Aug-09 81178 62078 40780 23334 40398 38744
Sep-09 80141 61644 40997 23429 39144 38215
Oct-09 78628 61040 41171 23486 37457 37554
Nov-09 77166 60690 41263 23523 35903 37167
Dec-09 75657 60326 41162 23598 34495 36728
Jan-10 74171 59687 41167 23708 33004 35979
Feb-10 72533 58484 41353 24106 31180 34378
Mar-10 71606 57890 41621 24470 29985 33420
Apr-10 70788 57226 41941 24810 28847 32416
May-10 69942 56575 42299 25324 27643 31251
Jun-10 69290 56112 42434 25372 26856 30740
Jul-10 68930 55851 42572 25607 26358 30244
Aug-10 69123 56279 42588 25674 26535 30605
Sep-10 69038 56664 42776 25797 26262 30867
Oct-10 69656 57256 43096 26118 26560 31138
Nov-10 69711 57627 43285 26284 26426 31343
Dec-10 69686 57618 43434 26277 26252 31341
Jan-11 69487 57692 43706 26375 25781 31317
Feb-11 70184 58335 43756 26201 26428 32134
Mar-11 70630 58765 44347 26529 26283 32236
Apr-11 70974 59275 44544 26533 26430 32742
May-11 71253 59765 44678 26498 26575 33267
Jun-11 71405 60212 44451 26441 26954 33771
Jul-11 71678 60736 44809 26479 26869 34257
Aug-11 71555 60989 44963 26478 26592 34511
Sep-11 71432 60795 44575 26415 26857 34380
Oct-11 70947 60465 44599 26276 26348 34189
Nov-11 71299 60727 44621 26432 26678 34295
Dec-11 71358 60997 44609 26397 26749 34600
Jan-12 71597 60822 44564 26353 27033 34469
Feb-12 71748 61123 44274 26421 27474 34702
Mar-12 72191 61721 43672 25980 28519 35741
Apr-12 71766 61310 43339 25824 28427 35486
May-12 71877 61353 42883 25592 28994 35761
Jun-12 72315 61807 43081 25490 29234 36317
Jul-12 71576 61210 42592 25327 28984 35883
Aug-12 71422 60904 42372 25182 29050 35722
Sep-12 71485 61259 42224 24994 29261 36265
Oct-12 71723 61794 41673 24757 30050 37037
Nov-12 71731 61954 41429 24437 30302 37517
Dec-12 71640 62045 41039 24366 30601 37679
Jan-13 71732 62140 40564 24206 31168 37934
Feb-13 71121 61876 40268 23968 30853 37908
Mar-13 71113 61948 40035 23959 31078 37989
Apr-13 71869 62850 39876 23827 31993 39023
May-13 72331 63148 40263 23837 32068 39311
Jun-13 73011 63502 40223 23854 32788 39648
Jul-13 73888 64288 40297 23787 33591 40501
Aug-13 74414 65080 40098 23857 34316 41223
Sep-13 74612 65627 40091 23796 34521 41831
Oct-13 75430 66304 40051 23733 35379 42571
Nov-13 76303 66953 39804 23637 36499 43316
Dec-13 77191 67509 39439 23229 37752 44280
Jan-14 78128 68437 39314 23084 38814 45353
Feb-14 79903 69815 39338 23007 40565 46808
Mar-14 81005 70650 39106 22707 41899 47943
Apr-14 81747 71210 39017 22547 42730 48663
May-14 82596 72018 38690 22420 43906 49598
Jun-14 83277 72780 38527 22384 44750 50396
Jul-14 85008 74157 38047 22110 46961 52047
Aug-14 87079 75469 37948 21903 49131 53566
Sep-14 89094 77036 37996 21930 51098 55106
Oct-14 90345 78590 37873 21874 52472 56716
Nov-14 91405 79983 37867 21765 53538 58218
Dec-14 91692 80288 37828 21667 53864 58621
Jan-15 93409 82248 38098 21562 55311 60686
Feb-15 93994 83390 38348 21621 55646 61769
Mar-15 94998 84494 38714 21811 56284 62683
Apr-15 95664 85061 38785 21944 56879 63117
May-15 96174 85585 38777 21983 57397 63602
Jun-15 96637 86000 38929 22098 57708 63902
Jul-15 97834 87399 38977 22164 58857 65235
Aug-15 98374 87975 39047 22201 59327 65774
Sep-15 99387 88856 38971 22290 60416 66566
Oct-15 100693 89966 39152 22301 61541 67665
Nov-15 101717 90789 39045 22132 62672 68657
Dec-15 102859 91767 39227 22112 63632 69655
Jan-16 103340 92381 39179 22242 64161 70139
Feb-16 104966 93498 39141 22214 65825 71284
Mar-16 105101 93356 39309 22168 65792 71188
Apr-16 105586 93889 39637 22219 65949 71670
May-16 106275 94136 39818 22201 66457 71935
Jun-16 106596 94296 39815 22067 66781 72229
Jul-16 106795 94251 40050 22167 66745 72084
Aug-16 105994 94005 40164 22298 65830 71707
Sep-16 105788 94402 40459 22340 65329 72062
Oct-16 105567 94811 40479 22452 65088 72359
Nov-16 105505 95127 40941 22874 64564 72253
Dec-16 105599 95634 41417 23228 64182 72406
Jan-17 105860 96506 41962 23472 63898 73034
Feb-17 105637 96902 42471 23882 63166 73020
Mar-17 105628 97523 42619 24250 63009 73273
Apr-17 105295 97810 42836 24519 62459 73291
May-17 105218 98337 43504 25041 61714 73296
Jun-17 105535 99166 44137 25577 61398 73589
Jul-17 105685 99654 44922 26140 60763 73514
Aug-17 106115 99996 45584 26460 60531 73536
Sep-17 105739 99579 46283 26956 59456 72623
Oct-17 105540 99507 47050 27396 58490 72111
Nov-17 105403 99425 47443 27762 57960 71663
Dec-17 105275 99321 48229 28262 57046 71059
Jan-18 105654 99833 48498 28693 57156 71140
Feb-18 104853 98867 48791 29111 56062 69756
Mar-18 105014 98768 49357 29703 55657 69065
Apr-18 104843 98332 49667 30185 55176 68147
May-18 104147.51 98149 48330.128 30520 55817.382 67629
Jun-18 103848.424 97651 48216.284 30886 55632.14 66765
Jul-18 103901.27 97312 48041.352 31299 55859.918 66013
Aug-18 104366.9 97331 48022.842 31613 56344.058 65718
Sep-18 105023.698 97268 47800.008 31768 57223.69 65500
Oct-18 106084.928 96703 47503.934 31808 58580.994 64895
Nov-18 107873.362 47478.23 60395.132
Dec-18 110483.536 47320.474 63163.062
Jan-19 112437.29 47634.41 64802.88
Feb-19 113852.08 47585.122 66266.958
Mar-19 113607.314 47479.466 66127.848
Apr-19 113442.634 47447.092 65995.542
May-19 113394.89 47412.2 65982.69
Jun-19 113721.048 47599.822 66121.226
Jul-19 114673.61 47448.728 67224.882
Aug-19 114794.414 47407.89 67386.524

Figure 3

Year ended Migrant arrivals: outcomes-based Migrant arrivals: intentions-based Migrant departures: outcomes-based Migrant departures: intentions-based Net migration: outcomes-based Net migration: intentions-based
Dec-01 29400 23465 57467 56031 -28067 -32566
Jan-02 29563 23707 54711 53019 -25148 -29312
Feb-02 29876 24091 51634 49279 -21758 -25188
Mar-02 30150 24395 50461 47740 -20311 -23345
Apr-02 30191 24541 49768 46837 -19577 -22296
May-02 30467 24812 47969 45017 -17502 -20205
Jun-02 30667 24972 47705 44880 -17038 -19908
Jul-02 30880 25032 47365 44228 -16485 -19196
Aug-02 31324 25274 47260 43753 -15936 -18479
Sep-02 31581 25396 47050 43237 -15469 -17841
Oct-02 31622 25234 47099 42963 -15477 -17729
Nov-02 31852 25292 46750 42544 -14898 -17252
Dec-02 32305 25417 46568 42112 -14263 -16695
Jan-03 32712 25543 46240 41386 -13528 -15843
Feb-03 33132 25900 45784 41104 -12652 -15204
Mar-03 33445 26147 45544 40767 -12099 -14620
Apr-03 33814 26385 44962 39757 -11148 -13372
May-03 34020 26622 44761 39042 -10741 -12420
Jun-03 34094 26742 44416 38235 -10322 -11493
Jul-03 34227 26958 44488 37991 -10261 -11033
Aug-03 34356 27271 44652 38067 -10296 -10796
Sep-03 34485 27594 44631 37875 -10146 -10281
Oct-03 34580 27792 44659 38025 -10079 -10233
Nov-03 34396 27695 45069 38428 -10673 -10733
Dec-03 34258 27691 45521 38859 -11263 -11168
Jan-04 34213 27731 45822 39000 -11609 -11269
Feb-04 33917 27539 46540 39483 -12623 -11944
Mar-04 33542 27258 46901 39744 -13359 -12486
Apr-04 33261 26970 47501 40360 -14240 -13390
May-04 33043 26649 48137 40734 -15094 -14085
Jun-04 32897 26353 48731 41392 -15834 -15039
Jul-04 32791 26258 48961 41554 -16170 -15296
Aug-04 32630 26020 49266 41685 -16636 -15665
Sep-04 32388 25731 49887 42271 -17499 -16540
Oct-04 32158 25630 50306 42577 -18148 -16947
Nov-04 31903 25429 50623 42728 -18720 -17299
Dec-04 31731 25069 51295 43190 -19564 -18121
Jan-05 31490 24766 51732 44071 -20242 -19305
Feb-05 31448 24736 52077 44568 -20629 -19832
Mar-05 31375 24727 52621 45303 -21246 -20576
Apr-05 31456 24917 53361 46239 -21905 -21322
May-05 31372 24920 53634 46957 -22262 -22037
Jun-05 31304 24962 53789 47385 -22485 -22423
Jul-05 31199 24887 54528 48224 -23329 -23337
Aug-05 31057 24761 54592 48617 -23535 -23856
Sep-05 30975 24674 54676 48851 -23701 -24177
Oct-05 30985 24561 55040 49306 -24055 -24745
Nov-05 30733 24211 54965 49301 -24232 -25090
Dec-05 30613 24165 55024 49201 -24411 -25036
Jan-06 30611 24295 55198 49055 -24587 -24760
Feb-06 30576 24252 55125 48765 -24549 -24513
Mar-06 30638 24234 54821 48298 -24183 -24064
Apr-06 30536 24115 54860 47985 -24324 -23870
May-06 30490 24104 54948 47878 -24458 -23774
Jun-06 30400 24040 55400 47774 -25000 -23734
Jul-06 30439 24097 55287 47439 -24848 -23342
Aug-06 30419 24030 55846 47475 -25427 -23445
Sep-06 30511 24054 56372 47603 -25861 -23549
Oct-06 30409 24045 56795 47557 -26386 -23512
Nov-06 30636 24347 57186 47472 -26550 -23125
Dec-06 30303 24018 57723 47616 -27420 -23598
Jan-07 30180 23783 58308 48297 -28128 -24514
Feb-07 30186 23764 59214 48889 -29028 -25125
Mar-07 30138 23667 60101 49845 -29963 -26178
Apr-07 30020 23466 60742 50588 -30722 -27122
May-07 30028 23461 61742 51114 -31714 -27653
Jun-07 29994 23472 62407 51842 -32413 -28370
Jul-07 29721 23185 63005 52658 -33284 -29473
Aug-07 29739 23222 63582 53360 -33843 -30138
Sep-07 29615 23218 64060 53728 -34445 -30510
Oct-07 29668 23158 64238 54053 -34570 -30895
Nov-07 29654 23108 64882 54722 -35228 -31614
Dec-07 29408 22969 65643 55645 -36235 -32676
Jan-08 29222 22871 66143 56080 -36921 -33209
Feb-08 29192 22849 66844 56942 -37652 -34093
Mar-08 29120 22835 67035 57056 -37915 -34221
Apr-08 29152 22902 67260 57359 -38108 -34457
May-08 29221 23020 67419 57792 -38198 -34772
Jun-08 29288 23036 67847 58327 -38559 -35291
Jul-08 29462 23121 68110 58447 -38648 -35326
Aug-08 29490 23273 68645 59132 -39155 -35859
Sep-08 29480 23195 68543 59590 -39063 -36395
Oct-08 29695 23414 69055 60288 -39360 -36874
Nov-08 29712 23369 69222 60871 -39510 -37502
Dec-08 30182 23553 68594 60602 -38412 -37049
Jan-09 30540 23808 68138 60471 -37598 -36663
Feb-09 30789 24020 66617 59268 -35828 -35248
Mar-09 31055 24220 65422 58179 -34367 -33959
Apr-09 31258 24476 63617 56585 -32359 -32109
May-09 31455 24630 61533 54565 -30078 -29935
Jun-09 31696 24825 59325 52484 -27629 -27659
Jul-09 31954 25231 57519 50672 -25565 -25441
Aug-09 32166 25418 55311 48518 -23145 -23100
Sep-09 32286 25565 53717 46735 -21431 -21170
Oct-09 32476 25661 51943 44654 -19467 -18993
Nov-09 32629 25843 50476 42988 -17847 -17145
Dec-09 32704 26084 49126 41558 -16422 -15474
Jan-10 32773 26323 47989 39713 -15216 -13390
Feb-10 32658 26360 47983 39119 -15325 -12759
Mar-10 32698 26446 48204 38892 -15506 -12446
Apr-10 32716 26394 48525 38856 -15809 -12462
May-10 32601 26275 49363 39559 -16762 -13284
Jun-10 32496 26193 50461 40429 -17965 -14236
Jul-10 32418 26038 51436 41061 -19018 -15023
Aug-10 32265 25827 52661 41925 -20396 -16098
Sep-10 32243 25748 53671 42701 -21428 -16953
Oct-10 31718 25452 54863 43980 -23145 -18528
Nov-10 31311 25060 55762 44884 -24451 -19824
Dec-10 30959 24851 57342 45741 -26383 -20890
Jan-11 30761 24741 58927 47369 -28166 -22628
Feb-11 30485 24437 59854 48322 -29369 -23885
Mar-11 30152 24250 61788 49932 -31636 -25682
Apr-11 30039 24181 63578 51415 -33539 -27234
May-11 29897 24016 64808 52658 -34911 -28642
Jun-11 29621 23804 65848 53708 -36227 -29904
Jul-11 29593 23909 67357 55298 -37764 -31389
Aug-11 29764 24098 68213 56351 -38449 -32253
Sep-11 29634 24006 69020 57612 -39386 -33606
Oct-11 29464 23807 69732 58098 -40268 -34291
Nov-11 29360 23715 70540 58577 -41180 -34862
Dec-11 28897 23190 71585 59644 -42688 -36454
Jan-12 28515 22768 71949 60370 -43434 -37602
Feb-12 28542 22823 72837 61592 -44295 -38769
Mar-12 28642 22663 72477 61786 -43835 -39123
Apr-12 28485 22497 72291 61988 -43806 -39491
May-12 28401 22436 72233 61849 -43832 -39413
Jun-12 28651 22595 72383 62102 -43732 -39507
Jul-12 28673 22466 71968 62148 -43295 -39682
Aug-12 28621 22317 71934 62157 -43313 -39840
Sep-12 28902 22370 71959 61915 -43057 -39545
Oct-12 29217 22541 71663 61897 -42446 -39356
Nov-12 29590 22695 71255 61779 -41665 -39084
Dec-12 30496 23210 71195 62054 -40699 -38844
Jan-13 31060 23519 70647 61441 -39587 -37922
Feb-13 31390 23697 69551 60410 -38161 -36713
Mar-13 31749 24078 68555 59525 -36806 -35447
Apr-13 32202 24367 67502 58614 -35300 -34247
May-13 32701 24630 66622 57699 -33921 -33069
Jun-13 33311 24733 65270 56474 -31959 -31741
Jul-13 33964 24987 64045 54919 -30081 -29932
Aug-13 34446 25249 62690 53624 -28244 -28375
Sep-13 34824 25560 61147 52217 -26323 -26657
Oct-13 35327 25839 59898 50920 -24571 -25081
Nov-13 35598 26074 58608 49912 -23010 -23838
Dec-13 36205 26456 56645 48268 -20440 -21812
Jan-14 36369 26724 55064 46411 -18695 -19687
Feb-14 36798 27037 53626 44823 -16828 -17786
Mar-14 37021 27345 52236 43374 -15215 -16029
Apr-14 37315 27601 50960 41898 -13645 -14297
May-14 37446 27856 49863 41057 -12417 -13201
Jun-14 37261 28004 48955 40062 -11694 -12058
Jul-14 37336 28238 48042 39242 -10706 -11004
Aug-14 37468 28406 47457 38489 -9989 -10083
Sep-14 37689 28432 47101 38124 -9412 -9692
Oct-14 37894 28607 46535 37639 -8641 -9032
Nov-14 38125 28854 46173 37237 -8048 -8383
Dec-14 38415 29028 45616 36728 -7201 -7700
Jan-15 38929 29273 45198 36163 -6269 -6890
Feb-15 38827 29223 44995 35872 -6168 -6649
Mar-15 39039 29294 44768 35703 -5729 -6409
Apr-15 39009 29373 44769 35678 -5760 -6305
May-15 39207 29506 44500 35287 -5293 -5781
Jun-15 39307 29654 44326 35298 -5019 -5644
Jul-15 39360 29732 44366 35329 -5006 -5597
Aug-15 39480 29890 44201 35375 -4721 -5485
Sep-15 39388 30025 44067 35358 -4679 -5333
Oct-15 39474 30156 44114 35345 -4640 -5189
Nov-15 39437 30102 43924 35100 -4487 -4998
Dec-15 39305 30170 43885 34895 -4580 -4725
Jan-16 39486 30582 43753 34810 -4267 -4228
Feb-16 39695 30747 43581 34640 -3886 -3893
Mar-16 39757 30713 43166 34282 -3409 -3569
Apr-16 39735 30780 43147 34340 -3412 -3560
May-16 39664 30692 42942 34195 -3278 -3503
Jun-16 39740 30759 42673 33898 -2933 -3139
Jul-16 39768 30744 42607 33813 -2839 -3069
Aug-16 39838 30998 42406 33586 -2568 -2588
Sep-16 39995 31240 42250 33348 -2255 -2108
Oct-16 39836 31306 42063 33383 -2227 -2077
Nov-16 39886 31530 42043 33429 -2157 -1899
Dec-16 39862 31671 41966 33489 -2104 -1818
Jan-17 39785 31784 42119 33513 -2334 -1729
Feb-17 39702 31914 42174 33601 -2472 -1687
Mar-17 39397 31995 41977 33336 -2580 -1341
Apr-17 39367 31969 41946 33375 -2579 -1406
May-17 39236 32066 42001 33398 -2765 -1332
Jun-17 39219 32189 42111 33473 -2892 -1284
Jul-17 39050 32435 42034 33547 -2984 -1112
Aug-17 38758 32157 42196 33621 -3438 -1464
Sep-17 38473 32019 42284 33656 -3811 -1637
Oct-17 38373 32137 42328 33554 -3955 -1417
Nov-17 38115 32118 42302 33427 -4187 -1309
Dec-17 37805 32245 42302 33288 -4497 -1043
Jan-18 37455 32165 42153 33158 -4698 -993
Feb-18 37120 32099 41920 32912 -4800 -813
Mar-18 37153 32077 42494 33158 -5341 -1081
Apr-18 36973 32123 42512 33232 -5539 -1109
May-18 35962.666 32060 42107.108 33446 -6144.442 -1386
Jun-18 35614.674 31885 42326.332 33655 -6711.658 -1770
Jul-18 35500.208 31697 42575.694 33931 -7075.486 -2234
Aug-18 35521.578 31757 42643.646 34187 -7122.068 -2430
Sep-18 35449.342 31714 42725.166 34481 -7275.824 -2767
Oct-18 35311.7 31420 43345.092 34564 -8033.392 -3144
Nov-18 35327.498 43873.144 -8545.646
Dec-18 35159.542 44500.69 -9341.148
Jan-19 35074.528 45319.664 -10245.136
Feb-19 35214.654 45753.324 -10538.67
Mar-19 35162.996 45923.248 -10760.252
Apr-19 35103.484 46035.986 -10932.502
May-19 35112.14 46557.294 -11445.154
Jun-19 35293.458 47141.022 -11847.564
Jul-19 35430.04 47700.992 -12270.952
Aug-19 35039.916 48616.77 -13576.854

Provisional data

As part of the extended back series, we have revised monthly and year-ended final migration estimates up to April 2018; however, we have not revised the provisional estimates. As a result, year-ended provisional migration series are currently inconsistent with the sum of the monthly data. We will resolve this inconsistency when we publish the next international migration release on 12 November 2019.

Impact on population estimates

National population estimates: At 30 June 2019 and Subnational population estimates: At 30 June 2019 (provisional) incorporate the new migration estimates available at the time of release. Revised population estimates incorporating 2018 Census results, estimates of census coverage (net census undercount) from the 2018 post-enumeration survey, and final birth, death, and migration estimates will be available on 30 March 2020. Population estimates up to June 2013 are unaffected because these were revised after each Census of Population and Dwellings.

How we create travel histories

We create travel histories by identifying unique individuals in the border-crossing data within a secure and confidential Stats NZ environment. We use passport numbers, dates of birth, and names of travellers to identify unique travellers. These variables allow us to uniquely identify travellers who have multiple passports or who renew their passports.

Before June 2013, the border-crossing dataset did not contain all the necessary variables, so we were unable to use it to produce travel histories. Recently we have worked with administrative data available through the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) to create an encrypted identifier that allows us to identify and construct travel histories for unique travellers back to 2001.

We have been able to extend the national-level outcomes-based migration series back to 2001 using the 12/16-month rule. We have extended the subnational migration series, which require extra data from the IDI, back to 2013.

Where to find the extended time series

The new migration estimates are available via published Infoshare series (Tourism – International travel and migration). We have made some small revisions to final migration estimates for June 2014 to April 2018, reflecting the improved and longer travel histories now available.

We have also extended the seasonally adjusted series back to 2001, with small flow-on changes to more recent seasonally adjusted estimates.

We have extended subnational migration estimates back to 2013.

/Stats NZ Public Release. View in full here.