La Niña may return to impact weather and climate patterns from September onwards, according to the latest World Meteorological Organization (WMO) El Niño/La Niña update . But despite the temporary cooling influence of La Niña, temperatures are still expected to be above average for much of the world.
Neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña) have persisted since March 2025, with sea surface temperature anomalies remaining near average across the equatorial Pacific. However, these conditions may gradually make way for La Niña conditions to emerge in the coming months, potentially starting in September 2025.
According to the latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction , there is a 55% chance for sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to cool to La Niña levels, and a 45% chance for them to remain at ENSO-neutral levels during the upcoming September-November 2025 period.
For October- December 2025, the probability of La Niña conditions slightly increases to about 60%. There is little chance of El Niño developing during September-December.
