Migration to Australia halves

The estimated number of people migrating from New Zealand to Australia was 31,300 in the year ended June 2019, Stats NZ said today.

This is half the peak of 62,800 in the June 2012 year.

"Trans-Tasman migration has ebbed and flowed at different times, and currently we have relatively low numbers of migrants departing to Australia," population insights senior analyst Kim Dunstan said.

New data on migrant departures to Australia

This is the first time Stats NZ has published figures showing migrant departures to Australia, since the end of traveller departure cards more than a year ago. At that time the official measure of migration also changed from being based on intentions to outcomes.

"A statistical downside of removing the departure card in November 2018 is no longer knowing where our migrant departures are going," Mr Dunstan said.

"There is no existing New Zealand data source that tells us the destination of migrant departures. However, we've collaborated with our Australian colleagues to publish a new series of migrant departures to Australia."

The estimates are based on data collected at the Australian border and published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Australia uses the same 12/16-month rule as New Zealand to identify migrants arriving and departing, and has done so since 2007. The outcomes-based measure of migration using the 12/16-month rule is based on the actual duration of stay/absence of travellers after crossing the border. Australia also removed their departure card, in July 2017.

"The new outcomes-based estimates follow similar trends to the old Stats NZ intentions-based measure of flows to Australia," Mr Dunstan said.

"The new estimates are higher than the intentions-based measure, which understated both migrant arrivals and migrant departures."

The intentions-based measure of migration relied on the stated intentions of travellers at the time of their border crossing. This was not always the same as what they ended up doing, because of changed circumstances or different interpretations of the passenger card questions. The intentions-based measure of migrant departures and net migration is not available after October 2018.

Rolling year endedEstimated migrant departures (from ABS outcomes-based data)Permanent and long-term departures (from Stats NZ intentions-based data)
Jun-8942866
Sep-8939159
Dec-8933929
Mar-9028253
Jun-9024015
Sep-9021453
Dec-9019608
Mar-9117619
Jun-9116010
Sep-9115055
Dec-9115359
Mar-9215454
Jun-9215715
Sep-9216173
Dec-9216036
Mar-9315715
Jun-9315645
Sep-9315485
Dec-9315535
Mar-9416243
Jun-9417213
Sep-9418155
Dec-9418828
Mar-9519794
Jun-9520369
Sep-9520966
Dec-9521512
Mar-9622149
Jun-9622981
Sep-9623177
Dec-9623601
Mar-9724574
Jun-9725026
Sep-9725586
Dec-9726030
Mar-9826075
Jun-9826226
Sep-9827217
Dec-9828469
Mar-9930323
Jun-9931798
Sep-9932552
Dec-9933875
Mar-0035376
Jun-0036296
Sep-0036959
Dec-0038248
Mar-0142367
Jun-0141962
Sep-0139848
Dec-0136033
Mar-0228734
Jun-0226766
Sep-0225852
Dec-0225070
Mar-0324647
Jun-0323283
Sep-0323393
Dec-0324569
Mar-0425700
Jun-0426999
Sep-044257827979
Dec-044008028938
Mar-054052231043
Jun-054192233019
Sep-054281934304
Dec-054354534766
Mar-064330534145
Jun-064353433792
Sep-064438833866
Dec-064569334015
Mar-074764236510
Jun-074989538336
Sep-075098539773
Dec-075247441634
Mar-085443243419
Jun-085577345348
Sep-085738547166
Dec-085793348452
Mar-095569046658
Jun-095096942231
Sep-094627237362
Dec-094248632755
Mar-104128130532
Jun-104290631704
Sep-104597233814
Dec-104919336830
Mar-115371940906
Jun-115757144869
Sep-116007548829
Dec-116183051054
Mar-126268853237
Jun-126283253763
Sep-126257953729
Dec-126178553676
Mar-135915651273
Jun-135535748027
Sep-135115943411
Dec-134696239154
Mar-144223334002
Jun-143896530514
Sep-143692528582
Dec-143532727072
Mar-153441925990
Jun-153385725246
Sep-153357124903
Dec-153371824504
Mar-163443923905
Jun-163582523770
Sep-163703923820
Dec-163708124220
Mar-173589224539
Jun-173445924881
Sep-173323625069
Dec-173239224841
Mar-183206324737
Jun-183184525173
Sep-183175525710
Dec-1831530
Mar-1931456
Jun-1931266

Small net outflow to Australia

The new estimates can be combined with existing Stats NZ data to estimate net migration with Australia and the 'rest of the world' combined.

While 31,300 people migrated from New Zealand to Australia in the year ended June 2019, 27,600 migrated from Australia to New Zealand. About 4 in 5 migrant departures to Australia, and 2 in 3 migrant arrivals from Australia, were New Zealand citizens.

Net migration to Australia - the difference between migrant arrivals and migrant departures - amounted to a net outflow of 3,600 in the year ended June 2019. This compares with the highest-ever net outflow to Australia of 43,500 in the year ended March 2012.

"Although New Zealand traditionally loses more people to Australia than it gains, the latest net flows to Australia are small by historical standards."

The historical ups and downs in migration with Australia reflect a combination of factors, including relative economic and labour market conditions between Australia and New Zealand, and Australian immigration policy changes.

Rolling year endedEstimated net migration (from Stats NZ and ABS outcomes-based data)Net permanent and long-term migration (from Stats NZ intentions-based data)
Jun-8931016
Sep-8926568
Dec-8919932
Mar-9012836
Jun-907360
Sep-903802
Dec-90939
Mar-91-1216
Jun-91-1910
Sep-91-1612
Dec-91883
Mar-922265
Jun-922842
Sep-923714
Dec-923648
Mar-933608
Jun-933979
Sep-933295
Dec-932896
Mar-943393
Jun-943889
Sep-944996
Dec-945932
Mar-956795
Jun-957723
Sep-958260
Dec-958618
Mar-969156
Jun-969880
Sep-9610389
Dec-9611062
Mar-9712054
Jun-9712481
Sep-9713090
Dec-9714039
Mar-9814659
Jun-9814738
Sep-9816266
Dec-9817863
Mar-9920069
Jun-9922219
Sep-9922662
Dec-9923369
Mar-0024817
Jun-0025526
Sep-0026113
Dec-0027668
Mar-0131577
Jun-0130965
Sep-0128359
Dec-0123847
Mar-0216095
Jun-0213707
Sep-0212845
Dec-0212052
Mar-0311258
Jun-039673
Sep-039310
Dec-0310225
Mar-0411034
Jun-0412422
Sep-042144013609
Dec-041962814722
Mar-052069617166
Jun-052259219277
Sep-052371620697
Dec-052461021377
Mar-062455820713
Jun-062499420459
Sep-062577620598
Dec-062701420709
Mar-072889623266
Jun-073103724953
Sep-073212926194
Dec-073377427998
Mar-083598029892
Jun-083746031923
Sep-083925133929
Dec-083964435395
Mar-093720433590
Jun-093195628676
Sep-092661023102
Dec-092215217962
Mar-102035514890
Jun-102170115908
Sep-102460218088
Dec-102812420988
Mar-113294125331
Jun-113739829915
Sep-114046734151
Dec-114247536868
Mar-124348639456
Jun-124339739809
Sep-124253839520
Dec-124046338796
Mar-133652635518
Jun-133102831246
Sep-132475025303
Dec-131839919605
Mar-141217212856
Jun-1482528325
Sep-1457045986
Dec-1433443797
Mar-1519722328
Jun-159501185
Sep-15282220
Dec-1574-769
Mar-16334-1862
Jun-161944-1933
Sep-163477-1965
Dec-163939-1563
Mar-173555-1018
Jun-172430-560
Sep-17194666
Dec-171982-109
Mar-182389-8
Jun-182924831
Sep-1832301575
Dec-183893
Mar-193835
Jun-193643

Trans-Tasman migration trends have generally been driven by departures from New Zealand to Australia. By comparison, flows from Australia to New Zealand have hovered at much lower levels - around 20,000 a year during 2004-12 - although they did exceed 30,000 a year during 2014-17.

Rolling year endedMigration from New Zealand to Australia (estimated from ABS data)Migration from Australia to New Zealand (estimated from Stats NZ data)Net migration from New Zealand to Australia
Sep-04425782113821440
Dec-04400802045219628
Mar-05405221982620696
Jun-05419221933022592
Sep-05428191910323716
Dec-05435451893524610
Mar-06433051874724558
Jun-06435341854024994
Sep-06443881861225776
Dec-06456931867927014
Mar-07476421874628896
Jun-07498951885831037
Sep-07509851885632129
Dec-07524741870033774
Mar-08544321845235980
Jun-08557731831337460
Sep-08573851813439251
Dec-08579331828939644
Mar-09556901848637204
Jun-09509691901331956
Sep-09462721966226610
Dec-09424862033422152
Mar-10412812092620355
Jun-10429062120521701
Sep-10459722137024602
Dec-10491932106928124
Mar-11537192077832941
Jun-11575712017337398
Sep-11600751960840467
Dec-11618301935542475
Mar-12626881920243486
Jun-12628321943543397
Sep-12625792004142538
Dec-12617852132240463
Mar-13591562263036526
Jun-13553572432931028
Sep-13511592640924750
Dec-13469622856318399
Mar-14422333006112172
Jun-1438965307138252
Sep-1436925312215704
Dec-1435327319833344
Mar-1534419324471972
Jun-153385732907950
Sep-153357133289282
Dec-15337183364474
Mar-163443934105334
Jun-1635825338811944
Sep-1637039335623477
Dec-1637081331423939
Mar-1735892323373555
Jun-1734459320292430
Sep-1733236312901946
Dec-1732392304101982
Mar-1832063296742389
Jun-1831845289212924
Sep-1831755285253230
Dec-1831530276373893
Mar-1931456276213835
Jun-1931266276233643

Large net gains from the rest of the world

The implied migrant flows with the rest of the world, excluding Australia, can be derived by subtracting the trans-Tasman flows from New Zealand's total migrant flows. These indicate significant inflows and net migration gains from the rest of the world combined.

In the year ended June 2019, the net migration gain from the rest of the world (excluding Australia) was 50,900. This is down from the highest-ever annual net inflow of 66,600 in the year ended September 2016. The recent upturn in migrant departures to the rest of the world will partly reflect the increased migrant arrivals from 2014, many of whom were on temporary visas such as work, student, and visitor visas, and are now departing.

Rolling year endedMigration from rest of the world (excluding Australia) to New ZealandMigration from New Zealand to rest of world (excluding Australia)Net migration from rest of the world (excluding Australia) to New Zealand
Sep-04843664477739589
Dec-04829264949733429
Mar-05823575099031367
Jun-05839685072033248
Sep-05845615080133760
Dec-05849744938035594
Mar-06863924833738055
Jun-06868734868738186
Sep-06893914849740894
Dec-06918084852943279
Mar-07936314933644295
Jun-07945384950445034
Sep-07950595009644963
Dec-07946925026744425
Mar-08962395003646203
Jun-08993985009249306
Sep-081013084990851400
Dec-081019655017551790
Mar-091012215000651215
Jun-09969394879548144
Sep-09927654844244323
Dec-09880274780240225
Mar-10833784854434834
Jun-10805814998930592
Sep-10799115047529436
Dec-10795765158327993
Mar-11800045241627588
Jun-11808535272828125
Sep-11814585352027938
Dec-11809005436426536
Mar-12816315346128170
Jun-12815315263228899
Sep-12803465160428742
Dec-12808145044930365
Mar-13802324943430798
Jun-13819935013631857
Sep-13830275007932948
Dec-13848334912235711
Mar-14879654910938856
Jun-14898254851741308
Sep-14955624817247390
Dec-14981244811750007
Mar-151015904906352527
Jun-151030374939853639
Sep-151054864946756019
Dec-151085204939459126
Mar-161107534803662717
Jun-161124554666365792
Sep-161122214567066551
Dec-161123194630266017
Mar-171126884870463984
Jun-171127255178960936
Sep-171129225533157591
Dec-171126705813954531
Mar-181124935978852705
Jun-181120296048451545
Sep-181128396034952490
Dec-181127825950853274
Mar-191111765900452172
Jun-191100315911350918

Summary

Trans-Tasman flows continue to be an important feature of New Zealand's migration balance. However, current departures to Australia, and resulting net migration, are relatively low by historical standards.

Trans-Tasman flows are dominated by the movement of New Zealand citizens in both directions. In contrast, migration between New Zealand and the rest of the world is dominated by non-New Zealand citizens in both directions.

Diagram showing an overview of estimated migration for the year ended June 2019. See link to text alternative at the bottom of the image.

Text alternative for Estimated migration, year ended June 2019.

Country of last previous residence

The country of last previous residence (CLPR) of migrants arriving in New Zealand and Australia is not always known. The estimates presented here make an allowance for non-response to the CLPR on both New Zealand and Australian arrival cards based on the observed relationship between citizenship, birthplace, and CLPR. These estimates may differ from data published elsewhere (for example, Infoshare) which make no adjustment for CLPR non-response.

During the December 2003-June 2019 quarters, migrant arrivals into Australia averaged 460,000 a year and an average of 9 percent did not have an identifiable CLPR. Adjusting for non-response increased the number of migrant arrivals into Australia from New Zealand by an average of 14,000 a year compared with the unadjusted data.

New Infoshare data series

The new migration series is freely available in Infoshare: Estimated migrant arrivals to Australia by CLPR, citizenship and birthplace. From the Infoshare home page, select 'Tourism', then 'International Travel and Migration'.

Quarterly and rolling year-ended series will be updated about six months after the end of each quarter, using data supplied by the ABS. ABS migration estimates using the outcomes-based approach are available quarterly from December quarter 2003. As with Stats NZ migration data, the initial ABS migration data are provisional and subject to revision until finalised about 17 months after the reference period.

Backdoor migration into Australia

New Zealand has sometimes been used as an indirect or 'backdoor' gateway into Australia, especially in the early 2000s . In early 2001, departures from New Zealand to Australia spiked; and of New Zealand citizens who migrated to Australia, 1 in 3 were born outside of New Zealand. The ABS data gives further insight into these migrant flows, which suggest the overseas-born proportion has been about 1 in 3 during 2017-19. This is slightly higher than the overseas-born share of New Zealand's population, which increased from 19.5 percent in 2001 to 27.4 percent in 2018 .

Revisions

All migration estimates presented here for periods after June 2018 are provisional and subject to revision.

International migration releases

International migration - publications provides links to monthly international migration releases.

Text alternative for Estimated migration, year ended June 2019

Diagram shows estimates of migrant arrivals, migrant departures, and net migration for the year ended June 2019. Arrivals of New Zealand citizens from Australia were 18,300. Arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens from Australia were 9,300. Departures of New Zealand citizens to Australia were 24,600. Departures of non-New Zealand citizens to Australia were 6,700. Arrivals of New Zealand citizens from rest of the world were 16,200. Arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens from rest of the world were 93,800. Departures of New Zealand citizens to rest of the world were 17,400. Departures of non-New Zealand citizens to rest of the world were 41,700. Arrivals from Australia were 27,600. Departures to Australia were 31,300. Arrivals from rest of the world were 110,000. Departures to rest of the world were 59,100. Net migration with Australia was -3,600. Net migration with rest of the world was 50,900. Result is a total net migration gain of 47,300. Note: Figures may not sum to totals due to rounding. All estimates are provisional, subject to revision, and include adjustments for non-response to country of last permanent residence.

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