More departures than arrivals since March

The number of people departing New Zealand has exceeded the number of arrivals every month since the introduction of full border restrictions in mid-March 2020, Stats NZ said today.

Arrivals and departures include all people crossing the border, either for short-term trips or longer term.

From April 2020 (the first full month under border restrictions) to October 2020, there were 119,400 departures, and 65,900 arrivals. In the same period in 2019 there were 3.86 million departures and 3.82 million arrivals.

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"COVID-19-related border restrictions and disruptions to flight availability didn't halt travel completely and people have been able to depart New Zealand if they could access a commercial or repatriation flight," population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said.

From April 2020 to October 2020 there was an average of 600 departures each day.

"People have also been able to arrive in New Zealand, provided they could get a flight and meet entry criteria at the border."

From April 2020 to October 2020 there was an average of 300 arrivals each day. This included New Zealand citizens and permanent residents, their partners and dependents, essential workers, and other exempt travellers .

Most arrivals by people who have been living overseas

Of the 65,900 arrivals from April 2020 to October 2020, 23,200 were New Zealand residents, returning from a trip overseas of less than 12 months.

The remaining 42,700 arrivals were overseas residents. These are people who have been living overseas for more than 12 months before their arrival, and includes both New Zealand and non-New Zealand citizens.

Almost two-thirds of these overseas resident arrivals were New Zealand citizens.

The remaining one-third were non-New Zealand citizens, which includes people arriving on residence, work, or critical purpose visas; Australian citizens; and partners or dependents of New Zealand citizens and permanent residents.

Flowchart of arrivals to New Zealand  by place of usual residence and citizenship at time of arrival, April-October 2020.

Text alternative for diagram Arrivals to New Zealand, by place of usual residence and citizenship at time of arrival, April-October 2020: Diagram shows arrivals to New Zealand from April 2020 to October 2020, by place of usual residence and citizenship at the time of arrival. Total arrivals were 65,900, made up of 23,200 people living in NZ at the time of arrival (of these, 14,700 were NZ citizens, and 8,500 were non-NZ citizens), and 42,700 people living overseas at the time of arrival (of these 28,100 were NZ citizens, and 14,600 were non-NZ citizens).

"Of the 42,700 overseas resident arrivals from April to October 2020, it remains to be seen how many will either return overseas or stay longer than 12 months and be classed as migrants," Mr Islam said.

Low monthly migration after March 2020

In the seven months from April 2020 to October 2020 net migration was provisionally estimated at 3,700, well below levels in previous years. This was made up of a gain of 9,000 New Zealand citizens, and a loss of 5,200 non-New Zealand citizens.

"The provisional net gain of New Zealand citizens continues a reversal of the long-standing historical pattern where more New Zealand citizens departed than arrived," Mr Islam said.

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2019-08-013429.572
2019-09-013749.79
2019-10-014059.166
2019-11-014695.796
2019-12-018209.258
2020-01-015079.354
2020-02-015072.624
2020-03-018061.886
2020-04-01861.688
2020-05-01980.872
2020-06-011317.55
2020-07-011822.082
2020-08-012367.734
2020-09-012234.126
2020-10-011638.528
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2019-11-012966.536
2019-12-013941.648
2020-01-013406.49
2020-02-012700.214
2020-03-012159.606
2020-04-0183.972
2020-05-01184.356
2020-06-01323.1
2020-07-01435.436
2020-08-01451.746
2020-09-01373.586
2020-10-01411.26
2017-10-01168
2017-11-01136
2017-12-01993
2018-01-01-363
2018-02-01-649
2018-03-01-1308
2018-04-01-1582
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2019-07-01-168.082
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2019-10-011162.654
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2019-12-014267.61
2020-01-011672.864
2020-02-012372.41
2020-03-015902.28
2020-04-01777.716
2020-05-01796.516
2020-06-01994.45
2020-07-011386.646
2020-08-011915.988
2020-09-011860.54
2020-10-011227.268

"Similarly, the provisional net loss of non-New Zealand citizens since March 2020 is a reversal of the long-standing historical pattern where more non-New Zealand citizens arrived than departed."

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2019-10-0113062.286
2019-11-0114299.482
2019-12-0112008.91
2020-01-0115615.776
2020-02-0116994.268
2020-03-0110653.826
2020-04-01290.518
2020-05-01320.858
2020-06-01690.716
2020-07-01724.494
2020-08-011127.218
2020-09-011222.054
2020-10-01978.988
2017-10-013325
2017-11-014173
2017-12-015744
2018-01-013610
2018-02-013400
2018-03-013967
2018-04-013551
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2018-06-013936
2018-07-014326
2018-08-013609
2018-09-013447
2018-10-013211
2018-11-014270
2018-12-015734
2019-01-014117
2019-02-013439
2019-03-014041
2019-04-013746
2019-05-014095
2019-06-014662
2019-07-014602.288
2019-08-013645.092
2019-09-013849.36
2019-10-014000.858
2019-11-016955.422
2019-12-017863.216
2020-01-015608.414
2020-02-014385.99
2020-03-014936.42
2020-04-01979.884
2020-05-01711.69
2020-06-011202.906
2020-07-011777.564
2020-08-012096.39
2020-09-012487.75
2020-10-011322.184
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2018-01-017151
2018-02-017030
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2019-07-016572.444
2019-08-016861.694
2019-09-017241.25
2019-10-019061.428
2019-11-017344.06
2019-12-014145.694
2020-01-0110007.362
2020-02-0112608.278
2020-03-015717.406
2020-04-01-689.366
2020-05-01-390.832
2020-06-01-512.19
2020-07-01-1053.07
2020-08-01-969.172
2020-09-01-1265.696
2020-10-01-343.196

Annual net migration is provisionally estimated at 59,500 in the year ended October 2020, with 55,800 of this in the five months leading up to travel and border restrictions in March 2020.

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2009-06-0116268
2009-07-0116955
2009-08-0117357
2009-09-0117906
2009-10-0118183
2009-11-0118256
2009-12-0118269
2010-01-0117958
2010-02-0116047
2010-03-0114632
2010-04-0113120
2010-05-0110913
2010-06-018969
2010-07-017297
2010-08-016085
2010-09-014680
2010-10-013254
2010-11-011820
2010-12-01-277
2011-01-01-2465
2011-02-01-3044
2011-03-01-5483
2011-04-01-7185
2011-05-01-8397
2011-06-01-9404
2011-07-01-11006
2011-08-01-11993
2011-09-01-12620
2011-10-01-14068
2011-11-01-14669
2011-12-01-16144
2012-01-01-16798
2012-02-01-17260
2012-03-01-15684
2012-04-01-15832
2012-05-01-15293
2012-06-01-14983
2012-07-01-14802
2012-08-01-14678
2012-09-01-14191
2012-10-01-12704
2012-11-01-11671
2012-12-01-10408
2013-01-01-8544
2013-02-01-7418
2013-03-01-5811
2013-04-01-3304
2013-05-01-1360
2013-06-01809
2013-07-013483
2013-08-016031
2013-09-018117
2013-10-0110691
2013-11-0113419
2013-12-0117291
2014-01-0120064
2014-02-0123792
2014-03-0126785
2014-04-0129275
2014-05-0131234
2014-06-0133462
2014-07-0136781
2014-08-0139695
2014-09-0142269
2014-10-0144469
2014-11-0146184
2014-12-0147413
2015-01-0149795
2015-02-0150213
2015-03-0151266
2015-04-0151831
2015-05-0152860
2015-06-0153427
2015-07-0154604
2015-08-0155383
2015-09-0156497
2015-10-0157698
2015-11-0158969
2015-12-0159809
2016-01-0160676
2016-02-0162672
2016-03-0163155
2016-04-0163363
2016-05-0163994
2016-06-0164613
2016-07-0164672
2016-08-0164034
2016-09-0163876
2016-10-0163645
2016-11-0163194
2016-12-0162889
2017-01-0162469
2017-02-0161624
2017-03-0161349
2017-04-0160816
2017-05-0159924
2017-06-0159533
2017-07-0158745
2017-08-0158034
2017-09-0156536
2017-10-0155353
2017-11-0154518
2017-12-0153280
2018-01-0153084
2018-02-0151866
2018-03-0150932
2018-04-0150191
2018-05-0149913
2018-06-0148995
2018-07-0148612
2018-08-0148880
2018-09-0149428
2018-10-0149368
2018-11-0149238
2018-12-0149569
2019-01-0149107
2019-02-0149512
2019-03-0149685
2019-04-0149989
2019-05-0151122
2019-06-0152102
2019-07-0153806.362
2019-08-0156567.132
2019-09-0159196.85
2019-10-0163970.932
2019-11-0168637.252
2019-12-0173909.556
2020-01-0179263.782
2020-02-0187458.47
2020-03-0195535.156
2020-04-0193766.506
2020-05-0191334.19
2020-06-0188808.45
2020-07-0182737.664
2020-08-0176308.71
2020-09-0168842.836
2020-10-0159502.826

As the COVID-19 pandemic developed many people who arrived in New Zealand in late-2019 and early-2020 stayed longer than usual, making them more likely to be estimated as a migrant arrival.

Migration estimates could be revised up or down depending on whether these people stay in New Zealand or head back overseas. Estimates become final about 17 months after the reference month.

Who is a migrant?

'Migrant arrivals' are overseas residents, including New Zealand citizens living overseas, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months in New Zealand after arriving.

'Migrant departures' are New Zealand residents, including non-New Zealand citizens living in New Zealand, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months out of New Zealand after departing.

Migrant arrivals and departures include the flows of New Zealand citizens as well as the flows of non-New Zealand citizens as both affect the population living in New Zealand.The classification of travellers as migrants is based on their time spent in and out of New Zealand, not what visa type or passport they cross the border on, and not on their responses on arrival cards. Given this, we need to observe up to 16 months of travel history, using the 12/16-month rule, to definitively classify a border crossing as a migrant movement. Border crossing data after June 2020 therefore informs the latest migration estimates.

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