More People Identifying With Māori Ethnicity

Around 932,000 people, or 18 percent of the population living in Aotearoa New Zealand, identified with Māori ethnicity as at 30 June 2025, according to estimates released by Stats NZ today.

This is roughly double the Māori ethnic population of 468,000 in June 1991, when Māori comprised 13 percent of New Zealand's population.

The latest projections indicate that the Māori ethnic population is likely to increase to between 1.02 million and 1.09 million in 2033, and to between 1.20 million and 1.41 million in 2048 (National ethnic population projections: 2023(base)-2048).

"People of Māori ethnicity are projected to make up around 20 percent of New Zealand's population in 2048," population and housing spokesperson Sean Broughton said.

Ethnicity is the ethnic group or groups that people identify with or feel they belong to. Ethnicity is a measure of cultural affiliation, as opposed to race, ancestry, nationality or citizenship. Ethnicity is self-perceived and people can affiliate with more than one ethnic group.

Māori births driving growth

Māori births averaged about 17,000 a year between 2012 and 2025. The projections indicate that Māori births could exceed 19,000 a year by the late 2030s, as children born since 2000 reach childbearing age.

"Our Māori ethnic population is growing at a faster rate than Aotearoa New Zealand's population overall, mainly because of higher-than-average birth rates combined with a younger age structure," Broughton said.

Māori women had a total fertility rate of 1.97 births per woman in 2022-2024, down from 2.59 in 2000-2002 . This means Māori women are averaging about two births over their lifetime, based on the rates in 2022-2024. The projections assume Māori fertility rates will drop further in the long term, along with fertility rates for other ethnic groups.

By comparison, the total fertility rate for New Zealand women overall was 1.60 births per woman in 2022-2024, down from 1.96 in 2000-2002.

Inter-ethnic partnering also plays an important role in the growth of the Māori population. About one-quarter of Māori births are from non-Māori mothers with Māori fathers.

"Identifying with multiple ethnicities is common for Māori," Broughton said. "Children and parents of Māori ethnicity will often identify with other ethnicities."

Deaths, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility

There were almost 5,000 Māori deaths in the June 2025 year. Like deaths for all other ethnic groups, Māori deaths are projected to gradually increase as more people reach older ages.

Net migration is likely to reduce the Māori ethnic population, with migrant departures assumed to exceed migrant arrivals in most years.

"However, net migration losses will be more than offset by assumed net gains from inter-ethnic mobility, with more people identifying with Māori ethnicity over time," Broughton said.

Inter-ethnic mobility refers to people changing their ethnic identification over time, and can include identifying with more or fewer ethnicities.

For much of the 20th century, there was a net loss from the Māori population due to changes in ethnic identification, but this has reversed in the 21st century, reflecting a combination of cultural and societal factors.

"Changes in Māori identification occur at all ages, although rates of change are highest at the youngest ages (under 30 years)," Broughton said.

Māori population ageing

Despite having a youthful population, the projections indicate gradual ageing of the Māori ethnic population.

The Māori ethnic population aged 65 years and over (65+) is likely to more than double from 75,000 in 2025 to around 180,000 in 2048. The population in the older working ages, 40 to 64 years, is also likely to grow significantly, from 230,000 in 2025 to around 370,000 in 2048.

Projections of the population in the youngest ages are more uncertain because of the uncertainty of future fertility rates. In contrast, everyone aged 23+ years in June 2048 is already alive - only deaths and migration can change this population group.

Māori also identify with other ethnicities

Ethnicity is a self-determined cultural affiliation, and ethnic populations overlap because people can and do identify with multiple ethnicities.

"Identifying with multiple ethnicities is increasingly common for Māori, as it is for other ethnic populations," Broughton said.

In the 2023 Census, 59 percent of the Māori ethnic population identified with other ethnicities (up from 44 percent in the 2001 Census):

• 53 percent identified with European ethnicities (40 percent in 2001)
• 11 percent identified with Pacific ethnicities (6 percent in 2001)
• 2 percent identified with Asian ethnicities (1 percent in 2001)
• 0.4 percent identified with Middle Eastern/Latin American/African ethnicities (0.2 percent in 2001).

In addition to ethnicity, population statistics are also produced for the Māori descent population living in New Zealand. Māori descent is based on whakapapa. The latest estimated resident population of Māori descent was 1,036,000 at 30 June 2023, compared with a Māori ethnic population of 911,000 at the same date.

Further information

These 2023-base projections provide an indication of future Māori ethnic population changes, based on demographic trends and current policy settings, to assist communities and agencies with planning and policy formulation. Stats NZ will also publish updated projections for Māori and other major ethnic populations for subnational areas in the second half of 2026.

The Māori population estimates and projections draw on the 2023 Census and the latest births, deaths, and migration data.

Estimates of the geographic distribution of the Māori ethnic population up to 2023 are available in Aotearoa Data Explorer. Extensive 2023 Census data is also available in Aotearoa Data Explorer.