Victorian lockdown to end 21 October: updated Burnet modelling

Victorian Premier Dan Andrews announced additional relaxing of the Victorian Roadmap from 21 October when the state is expected to reach 70 per cent double dosed vaccination from COVID-19, five days ahead of schedule.

Premier Andrews said Burnet’s updated modelling predicts cases will now plateau around their current levels before rising as restrictions are eased to a daily peak of close to 4000 new cases per day in mid-December. However, hospitalisation rates are now lower, the length of stay is also less.

Along with the faster rates of vaccination levels – Victoria is expected to reach 80 per cent double-dosed around Melbourne Cup time and is pushing towards 90 per cent single dose – these high vaccination levels have enabled the earlier easing of some restrictions and an increase in numbers of visitors to homes, indoor and outdoor hospitality and numbers at public gatherings.

The modelling shows Victoria’s pace and high levels of vaccination has almost-halved the projected number of people expected to die from COVID-19 before the end of the year.

The modelling projects 1212 deaths between July and December 2021 – down from the 2202 projected on 18 September.

The chances of overwhelming the hospital system have dropped from 63 per cent to just 23 per cent.

Updated Burnet Modelling: Victorian Roadmap

Download the modelling.

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