As the US begins an 'America First review of AUKUS every rational observer can see that the deal is sinking and it's time Australia abandoned ship before billions more are squandered.For more than 2 years it has been clear that the US will not supply Australia with second hand nuclear submarines in the early 2030's as proposed under AUKUS, for the simple reason that they will not have any spare submarines.
Report after report from the independent Congressional Research Service has explained that in the early 2030's the US will have critically low numbers of nuclear attack submarines. To meet this "valley" the US needs to produce close to 2.5 new nuclear attack submarines a year yet it producing only 1.3. Despite billions more invested in the US submarine industrial base, including from Australia, this has not lifted and likely will not lift due to workforce and industrial constraints.
The US knows this even if Australia wants to ignore it.The Greens identified that the AUKUS agreement has an escape clause for the US. It only requires the US to supply Australia with nuclear submarines if the US President certifies the transfer will not impact the US' own defence capability. No US President, especially not Trump or any future President like Trump, will do this.
Senator David Shoebridge, Greens Spokesperson for Defence and Foreign Affairs, said:
"Donald Trump is erratic, reckless and careless of America's allies and alliances but he does have one fairly constant trait, he puts US interests first and allies last.
"The USA is reviewing whether to scrap AUKUS while Australia has just handed the US an $800 million AUKUS tribute payment. We're locked into a $375b deal that our "partner" might walk away from.
"It's time for Parliament to launch a full inquiry into this dud deal, and allow critics of AUKUS a seat at the table, not just a nodding bunch of Labor and Coalition members.
"The USA reviewing AUKUS shows what the Greens have been warning about for years - this deal makes Australia a junior partner in America's military strategy, not an equal ally.
"The Australian public deserves an urgent inquiry into AUKUS before Labor wastes more billions on submarines we will never see.
"It's pretty clear what any US review into AUKUS will say, the US does not have any spare submarines to give to Australia.
"Trump will use this review to either terminate AUKUS and pocket the money already paid or extract an even more eye-watering sum from Australia to stay in the sinking project without any hard promises for the US to deliver.
"While Trump considers scrapping AUKUS, Australia remains committed to a spending billions each year on a deal that ties us to America's military aggression against China.
"We need an independent defence and foreign policy, that does not require us to bend our will and shovel wealth to an increasingly erratic and reckless Trump USA."
