Weld Australia has issued a stark warning: without urgent action to address the deepening shortage of welders, the AUKUS submarine program is at serious risk of collapse. Both the United States and Australia are grappling with critical skills deficits that threaten to derail the multi-billion-dollar defence partnership—before the first submarine is even built.
According to Geoff Crittenden, CEO of Weld Australia, "This is not just a workforce challenge. It's a full-blown capability crisis. The US doesn't have enough welders to meet its own naval needs, let alone build submarines for Australia. If we don't address this issue now, AUKUS will fail."
The US is producing just 1.2 submarines a year—far short of the 2.3 per year needed to meet its own requirements, let alone fulfil the AUKUS transfer to Australia. One of the key issues cited: a chronic shortage of welders.
The American Welding Society estimates that the US will need to fill 330,000 welding positions by 2028, with an average of 82,500 vacancies every year. The situation is equally dire in Australia.
"Right now, 50% of Australia's welding workshops are running at 80% capacity or less, and the overwhelming reason is a lack of skilled labour," said Crittenden. "We've been raising this red flag for over a decade. The fact that nothing substantive has been done is beyond frustrating. It's dangerous."
"This is a perfect storm. A once-in-a-generation opportunity like AUKUS demands a long-term, strategic response, not just investment in ships and steel, but in people. We estimate that Australia will be at least 70,000 welders short by 2030. Without immediate action, the project is doomed to delays, cost blowouts, or worse."
"This is the reality we've been warning about for years," said Crittenden. "You cannot build nuclear submarines without highly skilled welders. This deal was never just about hardware. It's about people. And right now, both Australia and the US are facing a critical skills deficit."
Weld Australia has long advocated for a national strategy to address Australia's own welding workforce shortfall, including stronger investment in TAFE, an overhaul of the national TAFE welding course and curriculum, and the establishment of a Shipbuilding Welding Academy to train the next generation of highly skilled professionals required for this once-in-a-generation project. The Federal Government must act swiftly to ensure that Australia's sovereign capability does not remain dependent on foreign labour or faltering overseas supply chains.
"There is an overwhelming need to invest in Australia's under-funded and outdated VET system. The fact that the national TAFE welding curriculum hasn't been updated since 1995 is a major challenge—it no longer reflects industry needs. Graduates are entering the workforce without the skills required to read a welding procedure, set up a welding machine, or weld according to Australian Standards, let alone support major projects like AUKUS," said Crittenden.
"The Australian Submarine Agency's investment in a world-class submarine training facility in South Australia is a crucial and welcome step forward. It's encouraging to see the government backing this once-in-a-generation endeavour with serious infrastructure. But the reality is, we're starting from behind—and if we don't get the workforce planning right, this investment risks falling short. We're committed to working with the Australian Submarine Agency and TAFEs nationally to ensure Australia can deliver the highly skilled welders our nation urgently needs. The gap is clear. We need more skilled welders. The time to act is now."
"If we want sovereign capability, we have to build it, not import it," said Crittenden. "This deal isn't just about submarines; it's about national security. And you can't build that on empty promises and an empty workforce."
About us:
ABOUT WELD AUSTRALIA Weld Australia represents the welding profession in Australia. Its members are made up of individual welding professionals and companies of all sizes. Weld Australia members are involved almost every facet of Australian industry and make a significant contribution to the nation's economy. The primary goal of Weld Australia is to ensure that the Australian welding industry remains locally and globally competitive, both now and into the future. Weld Australia is the Australian representative member of the International Institute of Welding (IIW).
