Australia's Summer Ends Wet: National Forecast

BOM
Hello, it's Angus at the Bureau of Meteorology. It is the 27th of February, meaning tomorrow, Saturday, we head into the last day of summer, the 28th of February, where we will continue to see this unusual weather pattern, this tropical low bringing widespread rain across the outback. During Saturday that will gradually slide southwards, making South Australia the focal point of rainfall through the weekend ahead.

That's not the only area getting rain, though. There will be quite a lot of wet weather up in the north, parts of the east and even parts of the south lining up for rain this weekend.

A couple of light showers for the south-east coast, including Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast as well. Now, we're not expecting much rain there, just a few millimetres across the cities. Dry and sunny through the southern interior. A bit further north though, some heavier showers and storms certainly possible between Rockhampton and Townsville, both down at the coast but also up over the Central Highlands. The far west of the state could see more showers or storms from Mount Isa down to Birdsville, prolonging the ongoing flood situation.

A relatively benign day expected across New South Wales, although that doesn't mean dry, as there will be a couple of showers right across the east coast from the Northern Rivers down to the south-east. That does mean showers possible for Wollongong, Sydney, Newcastle, Maitland, Coffs Harbour as well. Not anticipating a lot of rainfall in those areas, mostly in the 0-5 mm range, but a little bit of rain nonetheless. Fine and sunny conditions expected for the western slopes and plains. It should be a pretty bright day across Canberra, some cloud, but dry weather there. Maybe some more rain in the very far west around Broken Hill.

Parts of Victoria have seen some pretty powerful thunderstorms on Friday, and that could be repeated once again on Saturday, with a widespread storm risk across the state. The most likely areas to get thunderstorms are the north-eastern ranges, the western ranges and the south-west forecast district between Ballarat and Warrnambool. If you do see storms develop overhead, you could easily get 20 mm or 30 mm of rain in pretty quick time but if there's no storms around, those rainfall totals will be much lower. It is the type of day where you can't rule out a bit of wet weather in most places, including in and around Melbourne, where there's a chance of showers, maybe the chance of storms, and for most of our northern districts as well.

Tasmania manages to avoid most of the commotion of the mainland and have a pretty settled day, all things considered, on Saturday. A few showers across the north-east coast around St Helens. It should be fine in Hobart with a high of 25 °C and a mixture of sunshine and cloud overhead.

All eyes on South Australia for upcoming rainfall. This weekend will become extensive and be heavy for many, it might take a little while to arrive. For Saturday the focal point of rain will be in the far north, as well as the west coast and the Eyre Peninsula, and we're likely to have heavy rainfall warnings in place for these regions. Parts of those areas could get 30-50 mm, some places likely to pick up more than that. Rain across the east of the state, including Adelaide, the Yorke Peninsula, the south-east, the Murraylands, the Riverland, will be a little bit patchier and probably not quite as much, at least during Saturday. Some people might get 0-10 mm, other people might get 20-30 mm, and a few spots might exceed expectations there, with a risk of thunderstorms moving through, but heavier rain in most of these parts during Sunday.

Out to the west now, it's going to be a notably cooler day for Perth and the west coast as the winds shift onshore, about ten degrees cooler than Friday in Perth. Inland spots though, still hot, 38 °C at Kalgoorlie-Boulder, and we've still got some 40s up around the Pilbara. Dry, sunny conditions expected for most places, maybe a couple of showers from Albany around to Margaret River, and it will be quite gusty at times, both in the south and out west.

Finally, up to Australia's north, we'll see showers and thunderstorms right across the Top End and the Kimberley as monsoonal winds really look to dig in through the course of this weekend. So, that means windier, cloudier, also temperatures dropping maybe a couple of degrees across some of these northern regions with that usual wet season shower and storm activity. Certainly not so common at this time of year, but continued rainfall down here, with more heavy falls possible in and around Alice Springs, continuing to feed those rivers over central Australia.

And a look at Sunday. There's plenty to see on Sunday, but I'll try to focus in on the key points. That will be more rainfall across this area here. We've got some heavy falls potentially in and around the Adelaide region, the Mount Lofty, the Flinders Ranges, the south-east, the Limestone Coast, the Murraylands, the Riverland. Basically the eastern half of South Australia could see some sizeable rainfall during Sunday. For some, it will probably shake out as the wettest weekend in a number of years.

We'll also see some rain over western Victoria, mostly west of Melbourne, but perhaps a little rain into the capital, and western Tasmania but perhaps no rain into Hobart. Light showers across the east coast, showers and storms across the north, and another fine one out in Perth.

Lots to keep an eye on this weekend, particularly if you live in southern and central Australia. Definitely a good weekend to keep an eye on that rain radar, alongside any warnings for weather or for flooding. You can find all that information on the Bureau's website and the BOM Weather app. But for now, have a fabulous weekend and thanks for watching.

Video current: 1:30 pm AEDT Friday 27/02/26.

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