Gas Supply And Demand Outlook For 2026 Quarter 3

The minister considered a range of factors when issuing the NOI.

• The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC)'s Gas Inquiry March 2026 interim report forecasts that east coast demand (499 petajoules) will exceed supply (488 petajoules) during Q3.
• This would result in a shortfall of 12 petajoules, to a surplus of 3 petajoules on the east coast gas market.
• The amount depends on how much uncontracted gas LNG exporters (forecast to be 15 PJ) supply to the domestic market.
• Risks of a potential supply shortfall may be exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East which has triggered a significant oil and gas shock.

The Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) ensures there is sufficient natural gas supply to meet the needs of Australian energy users.

It is a measure of last resort that allows the minister to secure gas supply to the east coast in a forecast shortfall. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects may need to limit exports or find new gas sources. The minister may also grant projects permission to export in a domestic shortfall quarter.

The minister will consult with industry for 30 days following the NOI. Consultation will consider an industry-led solution to prevent a shortfall where possible. LNG exporters must provide any relevant information to the minister to help inform a decision.

As part of this process the minister will consider the following possible permissions.

After the consultation period, the minister will determine whether to activate the ADGSM and declare Q3 2026 a shortfall quarter.