Heavy Rain to Hit SA, Vic, NSW in Weather Alert

Now yesterday we were expecting a fair bit of heavy rainfall around the Adelaide area and for much of northern and eastern South Australia. And while that did occur for northern and eastern areas, I want to show you why Adelaide didn't get that heavy rainfall that we were expecting. Now as we can see this orange area through here, that's a lot of dry air. And as you can notice in the satellite imagery, where we see all the moisture in the atmosphere, white and the green is moisture, where the orange is very dry air. You can see that moved in pretty quickly yesterday, and that shunted the moisture towards eastern South Australia and into northern Victoria, and that's where we saw some heavy falls, but less falls through the Adelaide area.

And we can see that on the radar. Over the last 12 hours we saw light showers around Adelaide, but then the focus of the rainfall shifted east and maintained through much of eastern South Australia, northern Victoria, even into western Victoria and south-west New South Wales. But also note another area of rain is starting to form through inland areas. That's going to be our concern as we move through today, tonight and into tomorrow.

But looking at some of those rainfall numbers in the 24 hours to 9:00 am this morning, we can see widespread 20 mm to 40 mm through eastern parts of South Australia and western Victoria. But we saw even heavier falls up through the Mallee, Riverland and into the north-east pastoral districts, with widespread 50mm to 100 mm, including 129 mm at Yunta, 66 mm at Mildura, around 50 mm around Renmark and Loxton, 60 mm at Naracoorte. So there was a lot of heavy rainfall across much of northern and eastern South Australia, we'd likely to see another round of heavy rainfall with another 50 mm to 100 mm likely over these similar areas today.

So let's look at all of that in more detail. So that tropical low that has been in the Northern Territory for weeks now, over a week now, has finally on the move through northern South Australia and going to move through eastern South Australia as we move through today and tonight. So we're likely to see more showers and storms areas around the Adelaide area, with light to moderate falls, possibly some brief heavy showers, quickly clearing though western parts of South Australia, with the focus tonight through eastern South Australia and western Victoria and western New South Wales, with another very heavy band of rainfall moving through these areas slowly as we get through the Monday morning timeframe.

And this rainfall also extending down into the Melbourne area during the day on Monday, with heavy falls, especially through northern Victoria and southern New South Wales, before eventually Monday night all clearing. And notice South Australia returning back to fine, clear and sunny weather, and some of that humidity will also disappear as well as we move into Tuesday.

So let's look at that rainfall totals in more detail. We've already seen those widespread 50 mm to 100 mm falls there, but this is on top of what we've already seen. We're likely to see another burst of heavy rainfall bringing widespread falls of 40 mm to at least 60 mm, with isolated areas of 50 mm to 100 mm and even a few possibility falls in excess of 100 mm to 150 mm, particularly through parts of the Wimmera, Mallee or south-west New South Wales. And that's on top of rainfall that's already occurring.

So Flood Warnings and Flood Watches are already been issued or likely to be issued as we move through today, tonight into tomorrow. And in anticipation of that, Severe Weather Warning is current for much of this area due to this heavy rainfall likely to bring flash and riverine flooding. So if you live in this yellow highlighted area or know someone that does, forecast rainfall today, tonight and into Monday, likely to bring flash and possible riverine flooding in these areas, particularly through those that have already seen heavy falls from around Yunta and down into north-western Victoria, with another 50 mm to 100 mm possible today. We could start having some bigger impacts in terms of flooding.

Note that Severe Weather Warnings have now been cancelled through the Adelaide area and much of western South Australia, as the bulk of this moisture now starts moving eastwards.

Now another key component of this heavy rainfall, a lot of that heavy rainfall will be associated with severe thunderstorms that we're likely to see later this afternoon and overnight, particularly in this red highlighted area through eastern South Australia, western New South Wales and north-western Victoria. And these thunderstorms could bring heavy to locally intense rainfall. We're talking 30 mm to 50 mm in just a few hours, and that could easily lead to flash flooding and also possible inundation of homes, properties, businesses and agricultural land.

So definitely want to be on the lookout for that this afternoon, tonight and into tomorrow through northern Victoria, south-west New South Wales and eastern parts of South Australia tonight. Tomorrow that threat will move into similar areas of north-western Victoria, south-west New South Wales and far eastern South Australia. Most of this will occur in the morning to early afternoon hours on Monday before all that weather system moves further eastwards and clears.

So it's been a wet few days through many of these areas, and that's why we're seeing a fair few impacts as well. With flash flooding likely to cause road closures, particularly on many of our dirt roads for those more inland areas of South Australia and New South Wales. Particularly this afternoon, tonight and into tomorrow, dangerous and hazardous driving conditions through large parts of northern Victoria, south-west New South Wales and the eastern South Australia that I showed you earlier.

And while for some areas, I have seen welcome agricultural impacts, in this widespread rainfall, the additional rainfall could start causing some issues there and flash flooding.

So with all that in mind, make sure you stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via our website, app and social media. And if those storms and heavy rainfall does get bad, listen to all advice from emergency services, and we'll continue to keep you updated here at the Bureau.