- GDP growth reached 2% in 2025 despite major policy shifts and a Q4 government shutdown, supported by strong productivity. Inflation was flat as tariff-driven goods inflation offset declining services inflation; the fiscal deficit narrowed slightly, though debt and the current account deficit remained elevated.
- Growth is projected to rise to 2.4% in 2026, while fading tariff effects and lower oil prices should bring core PCE inflation back to 2% during the first half of 2027. Employment growth is slowing but unemployment should stay near 4%.
- Near-term risks to growth and unemployment are balanced, but rising energy prices pose upside inflation risks.
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