The conflict in Iran and the disruption to the strait of Hormuz are already starting to affect UK farmers. The closure of this vital shipping route threatens supplies of two essential agricultural necessities: fuel and fertiliser.
Authors
- Caroline Flanagan
Head of School, Agriculture, Anglia Ruskin University
- Henry Matthews
Senior Lecturer in Agriculture, Anglia Ruskin University
The immediate impact on farmers has been a sharp increase in the cost of red diesel - the rebated fuel widely used in agriculture - which has already risen by approximately 60%, far outpacing increases seen at retail fuel pumps for car owners.
Concerns for farmers include the cost of fertiliser , particularly nitrogen . As the key nutrient driving growth in two key crop groups grown extensively in the UK, cereals and oilseeds, nitrogen is essential for achieving high yields. A wheat crop may require over 200kg per hectare during the growing season, depending on soil conditions, weather, and yield expectations.
The UK imports around 60% of its nitrogen fertiliser . Although much of this supply does not originate directly from the Middle East, global market dynamics mean prices are highly sensitive to disruptions. Around one-third of the global fertiliser trade passes through the strait of Hormuz, contributing to price increases of approximately £50 per tonne , compared to early 2025, and is expected to rise more if the conflict continues.
UK fertiliser traders are finding prices are changing so fast that they can't update their daily lists. The NFU president Tom Bradshaw has raised concerns about farmers not being given a confirmed price until stocks are delivered .
While most farmers buy fertiliser in bulk ahead of the growing season, the longer-term outlook is already a concern.
Much will depend on the duration of Middle Eastern tensions and whether the strait reopens in time for fertiliser purchasing decisions this autumn, ready for next year's crops.
Unlike the 2022 fuel price shock following the invasion of Ukraine - which was partially offset by higher commodity prices - current market conditions offer little expectation of improved crop prices.
Difficult calculations
Farmers are, therefore, being forced into difficult calculations: weighing the cost of nitrogen against likely crop prices, reassessing how to balance the crop's agrochemical inputs, including fertiliser, and awaiting clarity on the future of Environmental Land Management Schemes (Elms). Elms are government schemes in England aimed at supporting farmers to make environmentally beneficial changes to their land.
Even before the current conflict started, industry bodies such as the National Farmers' Union had raised concerns about the viability of arable farming under sustained cost pressures.
The government has also acknowledged these challenges, commissioning the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to investigate supply issues affecting fertiliser and agricultural fuel. The CMA has said it will monitor price rises caused by the current international conditions. In response to the crisis, the UK government has just announced proposals to support more varied types of fertiliser.
All these factors raise broader concerns for the UK, where food self-sufficiency stands at around 62% - a potentially precarious position in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
Farming landscape
UK crops are currently looking generally robust, after a strong autumn with ideal conditions for sowing winter crops and a favourable start to spring. Early signs point to a promising 2026 harvest.
But optimism is tempered by ongoing economic pressure. Farm gate prices (the price if a customer bought direct from a farmer) remain stubbornly low , as UK farmers compete with imports produced under lower environmental and regulatory standards
Simultaneously, the transition away from legacy EU support payments has left a significant income gap. Replacement schemes under the Environmental Land Management Schemes were paused in 2025 and are only expected to resume later this year, creating further uncertainty.
The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) latest figures forecast average arable farm income fell to £17,000 in the year to February 2026 - the lowest level since 2004-05. The drop reflects a mix of difficult seasonal conditions and global oversupply in key crops such as cereals and oilseeds. Dairy farm income was much higher at £224,000 for the same period.
The industry is rapidly embracing innovation and the government is backing farmers with measures to strengthen fertiliser supply resilience. Together with rising costs, these shifts have helped drive a 50% reduction in nitrogen use over the past four decades.
Precision agriculture (which uses technology to refine decisions) has boosted efficiency further, enabling farmers to tailor fertiliser use to the needs of specific fields.
There are other potential innovations that could help. Tesco for example, is working with farmers and manufacturers to develop lower-carbon fertilisers made from food waste, algae, poultry manure, and industrial by-products.
Global fertiliser markets may be volatile, but in the short term shoppers are unlikely to see that uncertainty reflected in everyday food prices. A 2022 Sustain report , found that farmers often receive less than 1% of the profit from supermarket sales, meaning their tiny share leaves little room for fertiliser costs to influence the final price on the shelf. For now, any rise or fall in the price of bread, flour, cakes or biscuits is far more likely to come from supermarket pricing tactics or broader supply‑chain pressures than from shifts in global fertiliser markets.
That's not to say fertiliser costs never filter through - a prolonged conflict could still nudge prices up for shoppers. Crops respond dramatically to fertiliser levels, so even modest reductions in nitrogen use can produce disproportionately large declines in yield. All that could translate into thousands of tonnes of lost crops, which would make food more expensive in the future.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
