La Niña Fails: Victoria's Summer Sees Record Heat, Fires

The Climate Council

A new Climate Council report finds record global levels of coal, oil and gas pollution is overtaking natural climate drivers like El Niño and La Niña – accelerating the "climate whiplash" phenomenon that pushes communities rapidly from one disaster to the next.

The report Breakneck Speed: Summer of Climate Whiplash warns that even a cooling La Niña couldn't prevent record heat and catastrophic fires in Victoria this past summer.

A Victorian summer of heat and floods (Dec 2025 – Feb 2026)

Despite La Niña conditions, Walpeup and Hopetoun recorded 48.9°C on January 27, 2026 - breaking Victoria's previous temperature record set on Black Saturday in 2009.
Almost one third of Victoria recorded its highest January temperature on January 27, 2026.
Melbourne's top temperature was 42.9°C. This city has experienced 11 days of at least 42.9°C since 2000 - the same number of such days it recorded across the entire previous century (1900-1999).
Mildura in Victoria only reached 45°C six times between 1946 and 1999 (54 years). Since 2000, the town has sweltered through 45°C a further 27 times (26 years).
A week after catastrophic fire weather warnings, communities along the Great Ocean Road saw cars washed out to sea in flash floods, before extreme heat returned 10 days later.

Climate Councillor, meteorologist and climate expert, Adjunct Professor Andrew Watkins said: "Climate change is now firmly behind the steering wheel of Australia's temperatures. In fact 2025 started and ended in La Niña – which usually cools large parts of Australia - yet Victoria experienced a summer of dangerous fires and extreme heat.

"That tells us the baseline has shifted. The natural drivers we historically relied on are slipping behind climate change in the race to control our climate.

"Our hotter oceans and atmosphere mean more water evaporates into the sky than ever before. With more moisture in the atmosphere, storms produce more rain like the extreme rainfall and flash flooding in parts of Victoria this summer. Mount Cowley near Lorne recorded its highest daily summer rainfall total with 186 mm on January 16, shocking Great Ocean Road residents who had been under a catastrophic fire weather warning a week earlier.

Climate Councillor and former NSW fire commissioner Greg Mullins said: "We used to think of catastrophic fire conditions as once-in-a-generation events. Now they're arriving every decade.

"The accelerating extremes are stretching fire services, with Victorian firefighters called on to battle 200 fires in just one day this summer. We're seeing communities hit by one disaster after the next, with little recovery time."

Mr Mullins said Australians cannot afford any more coal and gas approvals, which effectively pour fuel on worsening fire seasons: "Disasters are costing Australians dearly, as this report notes, insurance companies paid out $4.5 billion per year on average between 2019 and 2024, more than double the average annual costs over the previous 30 years. These costs will continue to balloon unless governments stop supporting coal, oil and gas pollution and speed up the shift to clean energy."

Climate Whiplash Events Across Australia (Dec 2025 – Feb 2026)

Western Australia - the Eyre Highway - Perth's supply route to eastern states - closed due to fires in 45°C heat, only to be cut off again two days later by floodwaters.
South Australia - Marree, near Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre, recorded five consecutive days above 48°C, including a new record high of 49.8°C in January. Just over a week later, a two-day rain event dumped 10 times the town's normal February monthly rainfall, followed a fortnight later by eight consecutive days of rain that cut the town off.
Northern Territory - Alice Springs recorded more than 30 summer days above 40°C (almost twice its average of 17), before intense rainfall triggered dangerous flash flooding on February 12.
Tasmania - Strong winds fanned almost 30 bushfires on December 4, destroying 19 homes on the east coast, with Hobart recording its windiest summer day (98kmh). Three weeks later, daily snow fell between December 23 and 26.

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