Global gas markets are set to undergo major changes by the end of this decade, with a coming wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity set to transform market dynamics, according to the latest edition of the IEA's medium-term outlook.
Gas 2025, out today, offers a comprehensive overview of potential supply, demand and trade trends in global natural gas markets for the coming years. It provides a thorough review of recent market developments ahead of the 2025-26 Northern Hemisphere winter and includes forecasts for how supply and demand could evolve to 2030.
According to the report, about 300 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year of LNG export capacity - a record - is set to be added by 2030, primarily supported by liquefaction capacity additions in the United States and Qatar. Over 80 bcm of annual LNG liquefaction capacity has been sanctioned in the United States year-to-date, an all-time high for the US LNG sector. This unprecedented worldwide expansion is expected to strengthen global supply security and ease market pressures following a period of tightness.
Although gas markets have gradually rebalanced following the supply shock triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prices have remained well above historical levels. This has restrained demand, especially in price-sensitive Asian markets. Growth in global gas demand is forecast to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to below 1% in 2025.
However, the report sees the surge in liquefaction capacity translating to a potential net LNG supply increase of 250 bcm a year by 2030. Barring unexpected disruptions, this is forecast to result in lower prices in the years ahead and spur higher demand.
"The coming LNG wave is set to offer some respite for global gas markets, which have been tight and volatile for several years. As new supply comes to market, notably from the United States and Qatar, it should apply downward pressure on prices - offering welcome relief for gas importers worldwide," said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori. "But elevated geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty mean there is no room for complacency. Global cooperation remains essential to ensure supply security - especially with rising electricity consumption set to drive gas demand higher in many regions."
The report's base case sees natural gas demand rising by nearly 1.5% annually between 2024 and 2030, which translates to an increase of 380 bcm in absolute terms. The Asia Pacific region would account for half of growth, and the Middle East, where countries like Saudi Arabia are switching from oil to gas for power systems, would contribute almost 30%.
In the report's high case - which explores how a stronger decline in LNG prices could stimulate additional demand growth, particularly in the Asia Pacific region - natural gas use could rise by as much as 1.7% annually to 2030, resulting in more than 65 bcm per year of additional demand on top of the base case. At the same time, a prolonged period of lower LNG prices could reduce the incentive for project developers to invest in the sector. This could lead to a potential tightening of global gas markets after 2030, especially if demand growth follows a higher trajectory.
As part of a detailed annual analysis on global supply security, the report also examines recent contracting trends. It sees the global LNG market becoming increasingly liquid and flexible, with the share of destination-free contracts accounting for just over half of total LNG volumes contracted by 2030.
It also features a special spotlight on the potential to deploy carbon capture technologies along LNG value chains to reduce the emissions intensity of supply. Additionally, it includes a section on the medium-term outlook for biomethane, low-emissions hydrogen and e-methane.
