National Ethnic Population Projections: 2023-2048

National ethnic population projections indicate the future size and age-sex structure of major ethnic populations usually living in New Zealand based on different combinations of fertility, mortality, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions, and current policy settings.

Key facts

National ethnic population projections indicate the future size and age-sex structure of eight broad and overlapping ethnic populations living in Aotearoa New Zealand. All data cited here relate to June years.

The projections indicate a 90 percent chance that New Zealand's:

• 'European or Other (including New Zealander)' ethnic population (3.49 million in 2023) will be between 3.41 and 3.58 million in 2033, and between 3.25 and 3.59 million in 2048
• Asian ethnic population (0.97 million in 2023) will increase to between 1.38 and 1.55 million in 2033, and to between 1.99 and 2.36 million in 2048
  • The Indian ethnic subpopulation (0.34 million in 2023) will increase to between 0.47 and 0.56 million in 2033, and to between 0.68 and 0.88 million in 2048
  • The Chinese ethnic subpopulation (0.31 million in 2023) will increase to between 0.37 and 0.43 million in 2033, and to between 0.47 and 0.62 million in 2048
• Māori ethnic population (0.91 million in 2023) will increase to between 1.02 and 1.09 million in 2033, and to between 1.20 and 1.41 million in 2048
• Pacific ethnic population (0.46 million in 2023) will increase to between 0.54 and 0.60 million in 2033, and to between 0.66 and 0.83 million in 2048
  • The Samoan ethnic subpopulation (0.22 million in 2023) will increase to between 0.26 and 0.29 million in 2033, and to between 0.31 and 0.43 million in 2048
• Middle Eastern/Latin American/African ethnic population (0.10 million in 2023) will increase to between 0.14 and 0.17 million in 2033, and to between 0.21 and 0.28 million in 2048.

The projections also indicate:

• The 'European or Other' ethnic population is the only major ethnic group to decrease its share of New Zealand's population over the projection period
• Population growth will slow for all ethnic groups, driven by declining fertility rates over time and ageing populations
• Age structures will change, with the number and share of people aged 65 years and over (65+) projected to increase in all ethnic populations
• New Zealand will become more ethnically diverse in 2048 than in 2023, due to slower population growth for the 'European or Other' group, and high levels of natural increase (births minus deaths) and/or net migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures) for other ethnic populations.

More data

Aotearoa Data Explorer has detailed national ethnic population projections, with tables by age and sex, by selected characteristics, and by projection assumptions.

• National ethnic population projections, by age and sex, 2023(base)-2048
• National ethnic population projections, characteristics, 2023(base)-2048
• National ethnic population projections, projection assumptions, 2023(base)-2048

Definitions and metadata

National ethnic population projections - DataInfo+ gives the general methodology used to produce projections statistics.

Technical enquiries

Helen He
[email protected]

ISSN 1178-0592

Next release

Subnational population projections: 2023(base)-2053 will be released on 25 September 2025.

Subnational ethnic population projections: 2023(base)-2048 will be released in the second half of 2026.