National Labour Force Projections: 2024-2078

National labour force projections indicate the future size and age-sex structure of the labour force usually living in New Zealand based on assumptions about labour force participation and average hours worked, and current policy settings.

Key facts

National labour force projections indicate the future size and age-sex structure of the labour force living in Aotearoa New Zealand. All data cited here relate to June years. Data before 2024 are sourced from the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS, year ended June, unless otherwise stated).

The projections indicate that:

  • New Zealand's labour force will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow in the long-term
  • the labour force will age, reflecting increasing labour force participation rates among males and females aged 50 years and over (50+), and the general ageing of the population.

The projections indicate a 90 percent chance that:

  • the labour force (3.1 million in 2024) will increase to between 3.5 and 4.4 million in 2051, and to between 3.7 and 5.3 million in 2078
  • the labour force aged 65 years and over (65+, 220,000 in 2024) will increase to between 250,000 and 460,000 in 2051, and to between 280,000 and 730,000 in 2078
  • the proportion of the labour force that is aged 65+ (7 percent in 2024) will increase to between 7 and 11 percent in 2051, and to between 7 and 15 percent in 2078
  • the proportion of the population aged 15 years and over (15+) in the labour force (71 percent in 2024) will be between 64 and 75 percent in 2051, and between 57 and 73 percent in 2078
  • the proportion of the population aged 65+ in the labour force (25 percent in 2024) will be between 16 and 31 percent in 2051, and between 13 and 33 percent in 2078
  • the ratio of those not in the labour force across all ages to those who are in the labour force (72 per 100 in 2024) will be between 54 and 84 per 100 in 2051, and between 55 and 103 per 100 in 2078
  • the average number of hours that people in the labour force are working or available for work (37 hours per week in 2024) will be between 34 and 41 hours per week in 2051, and between 32 and 42 hours per week in 2078.

The fan chart shows the size of the New Zealand labour force from 1988 to 2078. The New Zealand labour force is estimated from 1988 to 2024 and projected from 2025 to 2078. See link to text alternative under image.

Text alternative for New Zealand labour force, 1988-2078.

June yearNet migrationChanges in LFPRsChanges in age structure
202515900880010400
202619200840010400
202720800800010100
20282210076009800
20292320073009200
20302390069008700
20312420066008200
20322440062007700
20332460059007100
20342480056006600
20352500052005900
20362520049005500
20372540046005100
20382560043003800
20392580041002900
20402600038002200
20412610035001700
20422630033001400
20432650031001100
2044267002800600
2045269002600-100
2046270002400-800
2047272002200-1600
2048274002000-2600
2049276001900-3500
2050277001700-4500
2051279001600-5600
2052281001400-6600
2053283001300-7600
2054284001100-8600
2055286001000-9500
205628800900-10300
205728900800-10900
205829100700-11400
205929300600-11700
206029500500-11900
206129600400-12100
206229800400-12200
206330000300-12300
206430100300-12400
206530300200-12600
206630500200-12800
206730600100-13000
206830800100-13400
206930900100-13800
207031100100-14400
2071313000-15100
2072314000-15900
2073316000-16700
2074318000-17500
2075319000-18200
2076321000-18800
2077323000-19400
2078324000-19900
June year15-2425-4445-6465+
198842860081790041240026400
198940000082150040670024400
199039100082700041040023700
199138790085010041940023300
199237820086040043220021600
199336500086270045110019700
199436320087410047490022400
199536590088760050100024000
199636990091020052650025200
199736290093000055110027300
199835580093410056970024000
199933400093340059360028000
200033040093660060630031000
200133000093230063520034900
200234330093560066460040900
200334910094250069180042100
200435820095260071840047400
200536490096510075360055200
200637930097350078840057200
200738660097280080620067200
200838090096460083110073100
200937470096550085790082800
201036300095450088220085300
201136330094850090230098500
2012362800943800918300110200
2013355500935000921700116900
2014370700957600945200128100
2015393800992300961100136700
20164012001023900973500144600
201741360010805001016900160100
201841940011238001041900168300
201941690011580001041500170700
202041500011878001055400182400
202141210012099001060800192300
202242080012222001068100199600
202344440012569001079100211100
202445050013272001076100217300
202545560013427001082200225600
202646320013576001088700234600
202747310013698001096300243800
202848320013808001106100252400
202949200013923001118200259700
203050070014026001133000265400
203150790014127001149900270100
203251090014237001169600274800
203351110014341001191600279800
203451160014426001214100285300
203551040014493001239700290300
203650920014547001265100296500
203750780014605001290500301800
203850530014676001315800305600
203950300014760001339900308200
204050000014853001364400309300
204149740014954001388000309600
204249460015074001409100310400
204349250015191001429400311100
204449010015329001445900313400
204548860015434001462900316800
204648630015554001477600321000
204748440015684001489000326400
204848610015772001498800333000
204948800015842001508800340100
205048890015918001517400347800
205148990015981001525900355900
205249110016000001536000365700
205349250015993001546200376600
205449430015990001554700387600
205549640015973001562500399600
205649880015955001569400411400
205750160015938001576900421600
205850460015921001585700430000
205950770015917001595300435900
206051100015913001605700440700
206151410015918001616700443900
206251710015924001629200445700
206351980015942001641400447000
206452220015961001655000447000
206552430015994001666000448600
206652590016024001678100449700
206752710016060001690700449900
206852800016138001698900450600
206952860016219001705500452500
207052890016291001712600454700
207152900016363001718400457800
207252900016435001720800463800
207352890016507001721200471300
207452880016579001721800477800
207552870016650001721400484900
207652880016720001721200491300
207752900016789001721100497300
207852940016855001721100502700
June year15-2425-4445-6465+
198825.448.524.51.6
198924.249.724.61.5
199023.750.124.81.4
199123.150.6251.4
199222.350.825.51.3
199321.550.826.61.2
199420.950.427.41.3
199520.649.928.21.3
199620.249.728.71.4
199719.449.729.51.5
199818.949.630.21.3
199917.749.431.41.5
200017.449.231.81.6
200117.148.232.91.8
200217.347.133.52.1
200317.246.534.22.1
200417.245.934.62.3
200517.145.135.22.6
200617.344.335.92.6
200717.343.636.13
200816.942.936.93.2
200916.442.337.63.6
201015.941.838.63.7
201115.741394.3
201215.540.439.34.7
201315.340.139.65
201415.439.939.45.3
201515.94038.75.5
201615.840.338.35.7
201715.540.438.16
201815.240.837.86.1
20191541.537.46.1
202014.641.837.26.4
202114.342.136.96.7
202214.54236.76.9
202314.94236.17.1
202414.743.2357.1
202514.743.234.87.3
202614.743.234.67.5
202714.94334.47.7
20281542.834.37.8
202915.142.734.38
203015.242.534.38
203115.242.334.48.1
203215.142.134.68.1
2033154234.98.2
203414.841.835.28.3
203514.641.535.58.3
203614.441.335.98.4
203714.34136.28.5
203814.140.836.68.5
203913.940.736.98.5
204013.740.637.38.5
204113.540.537.68.4
204213.340.537.98.3
204313.140.538.18.3
20441340.538.28.3
204512.840.538.48.3
204612.740.538.58.4
204712.540.538.58.4
204812.540.538.58.5
204912.440.438.58.7
205012.440.338.58.8
205112.340.338.49
205212.340.138.59.2
205312.339.838.59.4
205412.239.638.59.6
205512.239.438.59.9
205612.239.238.510.1
205712.338.938.510.3
205812.338.738.610.5
205912.338.538.610.6
206012.338.438.710.6
206112.338.238.810.7
206212.438.138.910.7
206312.437.939.110.6
206412.437.839.210.6
206512.437.739.310.6
206612.437.639.410.6
206712.337.639.610.5
206812.337.639.610.5
206912.337.639.610.5
207012.237.739.610.5
207112.237.739.610.5
207212.137.739.510.6
207312.137.839.410.8
207412.137.839.310.9
20751237.839.111
20761237.93911.1
20771237.938.911.2
207811.93838.811.3

Growing share of the labour force aged 65+

In 2051, it is expected that between 7 and 11 percent of the labour force will be aged 65+, compared with 7 percent in 2024. By 2078, between 7 and 15 percent of the labour force will be aged 65+.

The fan chart shows the size of the labour force aged 65 years and over from 1988 to 2078. The labour force aged 65+ is estimated from 1988 to 2024 and projected from 2025 to 2078. Link to text alternative under image.

Text alternative for Labour force aged 65+, 1988-2078.

The fan chart shows the 65 years and over labour force participation rate from 1988 to 2078. Link to text alternative under image.

Text alternative for 65+ labour force participation rate, 1988-2078.

The fan chart shows the total labour force participation rate from 1988 to 2078. See link to text alternative under image.

Text alternative for Total labour force participation rate, 1988-2078.

The fan chart shows the economic dependency ratio from 1988 to 2078. See link to text alternative under image.

Text alternative for Economic dependency ratio, 1988-2078.

The fan chart shows the male average hours worked (or available for work), from 1988 to 2078. See link to text alternative under image.

Text alternative for Male average hours worked (or available for work), 1988-2078.

The fan chart shows the female average hours worked (or available for work), from 1988 to 2078. See link to text alternative under image.

Text alternative for Female average hours worked (or available for work), 1988-2078.

Age (years)Male 2024 (base)Male 2078 (assumed 5th percentile)Male 2078 (assumed 50th percentile)Male 2078 (assumed 95th percentile)
150.2130.0780.2130.353
160.3840.2380.3840.535
170.5650.4170.5650.719
180.7110.570.7110.858
190.7540.6290.7540.883
200.7960.6860.7960.911
210.8210.7220.8210.923
220.8440.7560.8440.934
230.8650.7870.8650.945
240.8850.8160.8850.956
250.9050.8430.9050.968
260.920.8640.920.977
270.930.8790.930.982
280.9350.8880.9350.984
290.9370.8930.9370.982
300.9370.8950.9370.98
310.9380.8980.9380.979
320.940.9010.940.981
330.9430.9050.9430.982
340.9440.9070.9440.983
350.9440.9080.9440.981
360.9420.9060.9420.978
370.940.9060.940.977
380.9390.9050.9390.975
390.9380.9040.9380.974
400.9370.9020.9370.972
410.9350.9010.9350.971
420.9340.90.9340.969
430.9320.8980.9320.968
440.9310.8980.9310.966
450.9310.8980.9310.966
460.9320.8980.9320.966
470.9320.8990.9320.967
480.9320.8990.9320.967
490.9320.8980.9320.967
500.9310.8950.9310.967
510.9280.8920.9290.968
520.9230.8890.9290.97
530.9190.8850.9280.973
540.9150.8790.9260.975
550.9120.8720.9230.977
560.910.8620.9190.978
570.9060.8510.9130.978
580.8970.8340.9050.977
590.8780.8110.8940.98
600.8540.7790.8810.986
610.8320.740.8660.996
620.8120.6930.8481
630.7860.6380.8251
640.7470.570.791
650.6690.4640.7120.97
660.6050.3820.6490.926
670.5450.3160.5890.873
680.4890.2640.5330.811
690.4370.2240.480.744
700.3880.1910.430.677
710.3440.1630.3840.613
720.3040.1380.3420.553
730.2680.1180.3040.495
740.2360.1040.2690.44
750.2070.0920.2380.389
760.1830.0810.2110.346
770.1640.0720.1890.311
780.1470.0650.170.279
790.130.0570.1510.249
800.1130.0480.1330.22
810.0980.0410.1160.194
820.0860.0350.1020.172
830.0750.030.090.152
840.0640.0260.0790.134
850.0550.020.0680.117
860.0450.0140.0570.101
870.0360.0080.0460.085
880.0270.0010.0360.071
890.01900.0260.058
900.01300.0180.047
910.0100.0150.041
920.0100.0150.04
930.0100.0140.038
940.0100.0140.037
950.0100.0140.036
960.0100.0140.035
970.0100.0140.034
980.0100.0140.034
990.0100.0140.034
1000.0100.0140.034
Age (years)Female 2024 (base)Female 2078 (assumed 5th percentile)Female 2078 (assumed 50th percentile)Female 2078 (assumed 95th percentile)
150.2560.1770.2560.339
160.4390.3560.4390.525
170.5880.5040.5880.674
180.680.5990.680.764
190.7310.6550.7310.81
200.7470.6830.7540.827
210.7730.7160.7850.857
220.8010.7460.8150.887
230.8160.770.840.912
240.820.790.8590.931
250.8250.8040.8740.945
260.8210.8070.8760.948
270.8180.8080.8770.948
280.8160.8080.8770.948
290.8160.8090.8770.948
300.8160.810.8780.949
310.8190.8130.8810.951
320.8220.8170.8840.954
330.8270.8220.8880.956
340.8320.8280.8920.959
350.8360.8350.8960.96
360.8390.840.8990.96
370.8420.8440.90.958
380.8440.8490.9010.956
390.8460.8540.9030.954
400.8480.8580.9040.951
410.8520.8630.9050.949
420.8560.8680.9070.946
430.860.8730.9090.946
440.8660.8780.9120.947
450.8720.8840.9160.95
460.8740.8860.9180.952
470.8750.8870.920.953
480.8740.8850.9180.953
490.8720.880.9160.953
500.8690.8740.9130.952
510.8640.8660.9080.952
520.8590.8560.9030.952
530.8530.8450.8980.953
540.8470.8340.8940.956
550.8380.8190.8870.957
560.8290.8040.880.96
570.820.7880.8750.964
580.8080.7680.8660.968
590.7880.740.8510.965
600.7620.7020.8280.957
610.7310.6580.80.947
620.6950.6110.7680.93
630.6420.5530.7180.889
640.5860.4990.6650.838
650.5280.4450.6080.778
660.4660.3890.5440.705
670.4140.3470.490.639
680.3650.3090.4380.57
690.3190.2740.3860.501
700.2750.2380.3350.436
710.2350.2050.2880.375
720.1980.1740.2440.317
730.1630.1460.2040.264
740.1350.1210.170.222
750.1120.10.1440.189
760.0940.0830.1230.165
770.0820.0720.1080.146
780.0710.0630.0960.13
790.0610.0530.0830.115
800.0510.0430.0710.1
810.0420.0350.060.086
820.0350.0280.0510.075
830.030.0220.0440.066
840.0260.0180.0380.058
850.0220.0150.0330.052
860.020.0130.030.047
870.0180.0120.0270.043
880.0160.0110.0250.04
890.0150.010.0230.037
900.0130.0070.020.033
910.010.0030.0150.028
920.010.0030.0150.027
930.010.0030.0140.026
940.010.0030.0140.026
950.010.0030.0140.025
960.010.0040.0140.025
970.010.0040.0140.025
980.010.0040.0140.025
990.010.0040.0140.025
1000.010.0040.0140.025
Age (years)Male 2024 (base)Male 2078 (assumed 5th percentile)Male 2078 (assumed 50th percentile)Male 2078 (assumed 95th percentile)
1510.63.510.617.6
1614.56.614.522.3
1720.312.320.328.2
1826.817.726.835.8
1931.72431.739.3
2034.127.134.141
2135.42935.341.6
223731.136.842.5
2338.633.538.342.9
244035.539.443.3
2540.63639.743.5
264136.139.843.5
2741.436.439.943.4
2841.736.54043.4
2941.936.44043.5
3042.136.54043.5
3142.236.339.943.5
3242.336.239.943.5
3342.43639.843.5
3442.53639.843.6
3542.63639.843.7
3642.836.139.943.7
3742.83639.943.8
3842.935.939.943.8
3942.935.939.943.9
404336.14044
4143.136.140.144.1
4243.136.240.244.1
4343.136.340.244.2
4443.136.340.344.2
4543.136.540.444.3
4643.236.740.644.4
4743.337.140.944.6
4843.537.541.244.8
4943.637.941.545
5043.638.241.745.2
5143.738.541.945.4
5243.738.842.245.5
5343.738.942.245.5
5443.639.142.345.5
5543.539.142.345.5
5643.539.342.445.4
5743.339.342.345.3
5843.239.342.345.2
594339.342.245.1
6042.839.142.145
6142.338.641.744.8
6241.737.841.244.6
634136.640.644.5
6440.235.339.944.4
6539.333.739.144.3
6638.33238.144.2
6737.1303743.9
6835.827.935.843.5
6934.425.834.442.9
7032.923.632.942.2
7131.621.631.641.4
7230.420.230.440.6
7329.418.829.439.8
7428.617.828.639.2
7527.917.127.938.6
7627.416.627.438.1
772716.12737.7
7826.515.526.537.3
7925.914.725.936.9
8025.313.825.336.6
8124.813.124.836.3
8224.312.424.336.1
8323.911.823.935.9
8423.611.423.635.7
8523.411.123.435.6
8623.210.823.235.4
872310.52335.3
8822.710.222.735.1
8922.59.922.535
9022.39.622.334.8
91229.32234.7
9221.8921.834.5
9321.68.721.634.4
9421.48.321.434.2
9521.1821.134.1
9620.97.720.933.9
9720.77.420.733.8
9820.57.120.533.6
9920.26.820.233.5
100206.52033.3
Age (years)Female 2024 (base)Female 2078 (assumed 5th percentile)Female 2078 (assumed 50th percentile)Female 2078 (assumed 95th percentile)
1592.5915.3
1611.54.611.518.2
1714.87.314.822.1
1821132128.9
1924.715.624.733.6
2026.117.326.134.7
2128.520.428.636.7
2232.226.432.538.6
2334.429.83540.1
2435.531.736.541.3
2536.133.137.642
2636.33438.342.5
2736.534.638.842.9
2836.53539.243.3
2936.334.939.243.5
303634.639.143.5
3135.634.238.943.6
3235.333.838.743.6
333533.338.543.6
3434.732.938.343.6
3534.532.538.143.7
3634.532.538.143.7
3734.432.538.143.6
3834.532.638.143.5
3934.532.738.143.4
4034.532.938.143.3
4134.633.138.143.2
4234.833.438.343.2
4335.133.838.643.2
4435.534.438.943.4
4535.934.939.343.6
4636.335.339.643.8
4736.535.539.743.9
4836.635.639.743.9
4936.735.439.643.8
5036.735.239.543.7
5136.634.939.343.6
5236.534.53943.4
5336.33438.743.3
543633.538.343.1
5535.8333842.9
5635.632.637.742.8
5735.432.237.442.6
5835.331.837.242.6
5935.131.236.942.5
6034.730.436.442.4
6134.229.335.842.2
6233.528.235.141.9
6332.726.834.241.5
6431.825.533.341.1
6530.82432.340.5
6629.722.431.139.8
6728.420.329.739.1
68271828.238.3
6925.715.726.637.4
7024.613.725.236.6
7123.812.324.235.9
7223.111.223.335.3
7322.610.522.734.8
7422.31022.334.4
7521.89.521.834
7621.69.321.633.7
7721.39.121.333.4
7821.18.921.133.2
7920.98.720.932.9
8020.68.520.632.7
8120.48.220.432.4
8220.2820.232.2
8319.97.819.932
8419.77.619.731.7
8519.57.319.531.5
8619.27.119.231.2
87196.91931
8818.86.718.830.8
8918.66.418.630.5
9018.36.218.330.3
9118.1618.130.1
9217.95.817.929.8
9317.65.517.629.6
9417.45.317.429.3
9517.25.117.229.1
9616.94.816.928.9
9716.74.616.728.6
9816.54.416.528.4
9916.24.216.228.2
100163.91627.9

More data

Use Aotearoa Data Explorer to access detailed national labour force projections. The following links will take you to the two specific tables:

Definitions and metadata

National labour force projections - DataInfo+ provides general information about methods and assumptions.

Household labour force survey concepts - Datainfo+ provides definitions of terms relating to the labour force used in this release.

Population concepts - Datainfo+ provides definitions of terms relating to population used in this release.

Projection method concepts - Datainfo+ provides definitions of terms relating to projections used in this release.

National population projections - DataInfo+ provides general information about national population projections.

Household Labour Force Survey - DataInfo+ gives general methodology used to produce Household Labour Force Survey statistics, and related metadata.

Technical enquiries

Kim Dunstan
[email protected]
03 964 8330

ISSN 1178-0606

Next related release

National ethnic population projections: 2023(base)-2048 will be released on 11 September 2025.

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