National Population Projections: 2024-2078

National population projections indicate the future size and age-sex structure of the population usually living in New Zealand based on different combinations of fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions, and current policy settings.

Key facts

National population projections indicate the future size and age-sex structure of the population living in Aotearoa New Zealand. All data cited here relate to June years.

In the short term, the projections indicate:

New Zealand's population (5.29 million in 2024) has a 90 percent probability of increasing to between 5.36 and 5.62 million in 2028, and to between 5.46 and 5.86 million in 2031
the population aged 65 years and over (65+, 0.87 million in 2024) has a 90 percent probability of increasing to between 0.99 and 1.00 million in 2028, and to between 1.07 and 1.09 million in 2031.

In the long term, the projections indicate:

New Zealand's population (5.29 million in 2024) has a 90 percent probability of increasing to between 6.12 and 7.21 million in 2051, and to between 6.61 and 9.05 million in 2078
population growth will slow as New Zealand's population ages and the gap between the number of births and deaths (natural increase) shrinks
New Zealand will have increasing numbers and proportions of the population at the older ages
the population aged 65+ (0.87 million in 2024) has a 90 percent probability of increasing to between 1.44 and 1.55 million in 2051, and to between 2.04 and 2.45 million in 2078
the proportion of the population aged 65+ (17 percent in 2024) has a 90 percent probability of increasing to between 21 and 24 percent in 2051, and to between 25 and 33 percent in 2078
the population aged 85+ (95,000 in 2024) has a 90 percent probability of increasing to between 275,000 and 322,000 in 2051, and to between 459,000 and 628,000 in 2078
the proportion of the population aged 85+ (2 percent in 2024) has a 90 percent probability of increasing to between 4 and 5 percent in 2051, and to between 6 and 8 percent in 2078.

Fan chart shows New Zealand population, 1953-2078. See text alternative under image.

Text alternative for New Zealand population, 1953-2078

Line chart shows age distribution of population, 1953-2078. See text alternative under image.

Text alternative for Age distribution of population, 1953-2078

Fan chart shows births, 1953-2078. See link to text alternative under image.

Text alternative for Births, 1953-2078

Fan chart shows deaths, 1953-2078. See text alternative under image. See link to text alternative under image.

Text alternative for Deaths, 1953-2078

The future number of deaths is more certain. Deaths are expected to increase steadily despite assumed lower death rates and increasing life expectancy. From about 38,000 deaths in the 2024 June year, it is likely that annual deaths will exceed 40,000 by the early 2030s and exceed 50,000 by the mid-2040s. Deaths will rise as more people reach the older ages, where most deaths occur. From 2020 to 2024, about 4 in 5 male deaths and 5 in 6 female deaths occurred at ages 65 and over (65+).

With deaths rising faster than births, annual natural increase (births minus deaths) is likely to decrease. From about 20,000 in 2024, there is roughly a 1 in 4 chance that annual natural increase will be under 10,000 by the mid-2030s. By the late 2040s, there is roughly a 1 in 4 chance of natural decrease - more deaths than births.

Fan chart shows population natural increase, 1953-2078. See link to text alternative under image.

Text alternative for Natural increase, 1953-2078

Image shows the fan population pyramids at 30 June 1951. See link to text alternative under image.

Image shows the fan population pyramids at 30 June 2024. See link to text alternative under image

Image shows the fan population pyramids at 30 June 2051. See link to text alternative under image

Image shows the fan population pyramids at 30 June 2078. See link to text alternative under image

At 30 June	0-14 years	15-39 years	40-64 years	65+ years
1953	637100	720300	528600	188700
1954	659300	728300	538900	191900
1955	679500	740800	549300	195200
1956	697200	754000	558900	199300
1957	722300	768700	570600	201300
1958	747900	782800	581900	203400
1959	771600	791000	591800	205400
1960	793000	801400	601900	207300
1961	813700	824000	614400	209100
1962	829400	846500	627800	212200
1963	845200	868400	639300	214100
1964	859000	890100	651600	216300
1965	871500	909100	662000	221200
1966	881100	931700	673400	225200
1967	890000	943300	682600	229000
1968	896000	954100	689900	232900
1969	901000	970900	696500	235600
1970	905800	998200	706200	241900
1971	915600	1023700	711400	247800
1972	924700	1061900	718700	254400
1973	932500	1106100	725100	261300
1974	937300	1154700	732700	267300
1975	937100	1189500	738200	278900
1976	926200	1186500	722800	275000
1977	910000	1205000	723500	281800
1978	889400	1219900	724500	287400
1979	870100	1224300	721400	293300
1980	853800	1235700	724300	299200
1981	841600	1242000	734600	306700
1982	830900	1266800	743900	314500
1983	824000	1302500	754000	318900
1984	815200	1326800	761400	323600
1985	804100	1338300	774000	330700
1986	791600	1332900	783600	338200
1987	783400	1348000	798900	344100
1988	773700	1349300	809400	350900
1989	772400	1340100	828200	358600
1990	777800	1344700	840400	366900
1991	807200	1399100	897500	391300
1992	814300	1402500	915300	399600
1993	824700	1405700	934100	407800
1994	835300	1412200	956600	415900
1995	847500	1421100	981400	423400
1996	859500	1433900	1008500	430100
1997	869500	1437200	1038300	436300
1998	876300	1429600	1067000	442200
1999	877300	1413600	1096200	447900
2000	878700	1400700	1124900	453500
2001	877200	1388800	1153900	460600
2002	883600	1405700	1191800	467500
2003	890000	1430700	1230900	475700
2004	893100	1443400	1266400	484600
2005	890200	1452100	1295200	496400
2006	888300	1463700	1321000	511600
2007	891300	1463700	1343500	525300
2008	895500	1460400	1368800	535000
2009	901100	1461000	1392100	548300
2010	908100	1464600	1414400	563500
2011	910700	1459100	1434100	580100
2012	909800	1450500	1444700	603000
2013	908800	1452300	1455000	626000
2014	911700	1484500	1471700	648500
2015	916200	1533800	1489200	670200
2016	924600	1590000	1507500	692000
2017	936800	1637100	1525800	713800
2018	946400	1676900	1542300	734900
2019	956700	1703200	1553400	757100
2020	967200	1745800	1573300	786100
2021	968300	1733100	1574800	808200
2022	963600	1718900	1572500	826800
2023	970000	1786300	1595800	848000
2024	976800	1824200	1615100	873900
2025	968800	1836700	1629100	902100
2026	961900	1850200	1643300	932200
2027	955700	1861400	1660200	963300
2028	949800	1870300	1680600	994100
2029	945500	1877000	1704000	1023100
2030	941100	1881100	1732700	1049800
2031	937400	1883200	1763700	1075100
2032	933700	1886200	1793600	1100200
2033	930900	1889900	1821100	1125500
2034	927900	1896500	1844700	1151400
2035	926300	1902800	1867700	1176400
2036	924300	1911700	1886700	1203000
2037	923000	1922000	1904600	1228000
2038	926300	1928800	1923700	1250600
2039	930100	1937500	1942600	1270600
2040	933300	1945100	1965900	1287900
2041	936700	1953600	1989800	1303100
2042	940500	1963800	2011400	1318300
2043	944700	1973400	2033900	1332400
2044	949100	1981300	2055800	1348300
2045	953700	1988800	2076500	1365100
2046	958500	1994900	2097200	1382900
2047	963200	1996100	2120600	1402200
2048	967900	1994800	2144600	1423100
2049	972400	1994100	2166500	1445100
2050	976500	1992100	2188200	1468200
2051	980100	1990500	2208300	1492500
2052	983300	1989300	2224900	1519800
2053	985900	1988600	2238300	1549900
2054	987900	1989500	2249000	1581200
2055	989400	1990700	2256700	1615300
2056	990300	1993000	2262400	1650400
2057	990800	1995500	2268900	1684800
2058	990900	1999100	2276000	1717500
2059	990700	2002800	2286000	1747500
2060	990400	2007700	2295600	1776600
2061	990100	2012000	2307600	1803900
2062	989900	2016700	2321000	1829400
2063	989800	2025600	2330900	1854100
2064	990000	2034500	2342600	1876700
2065	990500	2042100	2353200	1901500
2066	991300	2049500	2364800	1925300
2067	992500	2056700	2377800	1947300
2068	994200	2063800	2390400	1969500
2069	996300	2070800	2401300	1993100
2070	998800	2077700	2411700	2016600
2071	1001700	2084400	2420700	2040900
2072	1004900	2091100	2425200	2069200
2073	1008500	2097600	2427100	2099400
2074	1012300	2104000	2429600	2128200
2075	1016400	2110200	2430900	2157600
2076	1020600	2116200	2432600	2185900
2077	1024900	2121900	2434600	2213300
2078	1029300	2127300	2437100	2239600

Fan chart shows population aged 65+ and 85+, 1953-2078. See link to text alternative under image

Text alternative for Population aged 65+ and 85+, 1953-2078

Fan chart shows the percentage of population aged 65+ and 85+ from 1953 to 2078.

Text alternative for Percentage of population aged 65+ and 85+, 1953-2078

Within the 65+ age group, the number of people aged 85 years and over (85+) is expected to increase significantly. It is expected that 275,000 to 322,000 people will be aged 85+ in 2051, and 459,000 to 628,000 in 2078, up from 95,000 in 2024.

By the 2050s, about 1 in 5 people aged 65+ will be 85+, compared with around 1 in 9 in 2024.

More aged 65+ relative to those aged 15 to 64

Dependency ratios relate the number of people in the 'dependent' age groups (defined here as 0 to 14 years and 65+) to the working-age population (15 to 64 years). They indicate changes in New Zealand's age structure. However, because of their simplicity, dependency ratios ignore that some people in the working-age population are not in the workforce, and that some people aged 65+ are in the workforce. For those aged 65+, the term 'dependency' does not necessarily imply financial or economic dependency, given people are progressively living longer, are healthier, and are working longer.

The 65+ dependency ratio (the number of people aged 65+ per 100 people aged 15 to 64 years) increased gradually from 14 per 100 in the mid-1960s to 25 per 100 in 2024. It is projected to increase significantly, with the ratio expected to be in the range of 31 to 34 per 100 in 2038, 33 to 38 per 100 in 2051, and 43 to 57 per 100 in 2078.

This means that for every person aged 65+, there will be about 3.1 people aged 15 to 64 years in 2038, 2.8 in 2051, and 2.0 in 2078. This compares with 3.9 people in 2024 and 7.1 in the mid-1960s.

In contrast, the 0-14 dependency ratio (the number of people aged 0 to 14 years per 100 people aged 15 to 64 years) decreased from a peak of 57 per 100 in 1961 to 28 per 100 in 2024. This downward trend is likely to continue, with the ratio expected to be in the range of 21 to 27 per 100 in 2038, 18 to 28 per 100 in 2051, and 14 to 31 per 100 in 2078.

Fan chart shows the ratio of 65+ to 15-64 population, 1953-2078.

Text alternative for Ratio of 65+ to 15-64 population, 1953-2078

Fan chart shows the ratio of the broad age groups 0 to 14 and 65+ years to the age group 15 to 64 years.

Text alternative for Ratio of 0-14 to 15-64 population, 1953-2078

The total dependency ratio (sum of the 0-14 and 65+ dependency ratios) reached its lowest level since the mid-1930s in 2006 (50 per 100). It is projected to increase from 54 per 100 in 2024, to be in the range of 53 to 60 per 100 in 2038, 54 to 64 per 100 in 2051, and 66 to 78 per 100 in 2078.

The 65+ dependency ratio will then contribute more than two-thirds to the total dependency ratio, compared with nearly half in 2024. A total dependency ratio of over 70 per 100 was also experienced in the early 1960s, when the 65+ dependency ratio contributed about one-fifth to the total dependency ratio.

Fan chart shows the ratio of the broad age groups 0 to 14 and 65+ years to the age group 15 to 64 years.

Text alternative for Ratio of 0-14 and 65+ to 15-64 population, 1953-2078

Year	Very high migration	Very high fertility	Very low mortality	Cyclic migration	50th percentile	Very low fertility	No migration
2024	5290100	5290100	5290100	5290100	5290100	5290100	5290100
2025	5336700	5337700	5337000	5336700	5336700	5332900	5311400
2026	5407900	5392200	5388500	5387700	5387700	5378100	5331400
2027	5503900	5450800	5442100	5440600	5440600	5423100	5350200
2028	5625100	5512700	5497300	5494800	5494800	5467500	5367500
2029	5746600	5577200	5553500	5559700	5549600	5510900	5383300
2030	5868200	5643700	5610100	5635100	5604700	5553000	5397600
2031	5990000	5711400	5666700	5720600	5659500	5593300	5410500
2032	6112000	5780000	5723100	5816100	5713700	5631700	5421900
2033	6234100	5849300	5779200	5881400	5767300	5668400	5431900
2034	6356400	5919400	5835100	5916200	5820500	5703600	5440700
2035	6478900	5990000	5890900	5919900	5873200	5737300	5448200
2036	6601700	6061200	5946700	5942600	5925600	5769900	5454600
2037	6724600	6132900	6002400	5984600	5977600	5801400	5460000
2038	6847800	6205000	6058200	6036300	6029400	5832100	5464400
2039	6971200	6277400	6114100	6097700	6080900	5862100	5467800
2040	7094800	6349900	6170000	6169100	6132100	5891600	5470400
2041	7218500	6422400	6226100	6250600	6183200	5920700	5472000
2042	7342300	6494900	6282200	6342400	6233900	5949500	5472700
2043	7466100	6567200	6338300	6404300	6284400	5977800	5472400
2044	7589800	6639300	6394400	6435700	6334500	6005700	5471100
2045	7713400	6711200	6450300	6436100	6384200	6033100	5468700
2046	7836800	6782800	6506200	6455400	6433500	6060000	5465200
2047	7959900	6854000	6561800	6493900	6482200	6086200	5460500
2048	8082700	6924800	6617100	6541700	6530400	6111900	5454600
2049	8205100	6995300	6672200	6599000	6578000	6136800	5447600
2050	8327100	7065500	6727000	6666000	6625000	6161000	5439300
2051	8448700	7135400	6781400	6742800	6671500	6184400	5429800
2052	8569900	7205100	6835500	6829500	6717300	6207100	5419100
2053	8690800	7274800	6889300	6886200	6762700	6229100	5407400
2054	8811300	7344600	6942900	6912300	6807500	6250200	5394500
2055	8931600	7414700	6996300	6907400	6852000	6270600	5380700
2056	9051600	7485200	7049500	6921500	6896100	6290200	5365900
2057	9171500	7556400	7102700	6954900	6939900	6309000	5350300
2058	9291200	7628400	7155800	6998100	6983500	6327100	5333800
2059	9410900	7701400	7208900	7051200	7027000	6344500	5316600
2060	9530600	7775500	7262200	7114400	7070400	6361200	5298700
2061	9650300	7850900	7315600	7188000	7113700	6377200	5280200
2062	9770000	7927500	7369200	7272100	7157000	6392600	5261000
2063	9889800	8005500	7423000	7326700	7200400	6407300	5241200
2064	10009600	8084800	7477100	7351200	7243800	6421500	5220900
2065	10129400	8165300	7531600	7345300	7287300	6435200	5200100
2066	10249200	8247100	7586300	7358700	7330800	6448400	5178700
2067	10368900	8330000	7641300	7391800	7374400	6461000	5156900
2068	10488500	8413900	7696700	7434700	7417900	6473200	5134500
2069	10607700	8498700	7752300	7487600	7461400	6484900	5111500
2070	10726500	8584000	7808200	7550600	7504700	6496000	5088000
2071	10844800	8669900	7864300	7623600	7547700	6506500	5063800
2072	10962300	8756000	7920600	7706800	7590400	6516200	5038900
2073	11078900	8842300	7976900	7759900	7632600	6525300	5013200
2074	11194400	8928500	8033100	7782300	7674100	6533400	4986700
2075	11308700	9014500	8089300	7773500	7715100	6540700	4959300
2076	11421700	9100300	8145300	7783200	7755300	6547100	4931100
2077	11533300	9185700	8201100	7811700	7794700	6552500	4901900
2078	11643500	9270700	8256600	7849300	7833300	6556900	4871900

Fan chart shows the period total fertility rate (TFR) from 1953 to 2078. See link to text alternative under image.

Text alternative for Period total fertility rate, 1953-2078

an chart shows the completed cohort fertility rate (CFR) for women born in 1923 to 2048. See link to text alternative under image.

Text alternative for Completed cohort fertility rate, birth cohorts 1923-2048

Year	15 years	20 years	25 years	30 years	35 years	40 years	45 years
1968	6.15	172.06	239.47	146.71	68	23.75	3.25
1969	7.2	163.57	246.4	146.29	67.32	26.88	2.91
1970	6.65	166.05	235.38	135.47	63.45	21.46	2.31
1971	7.91	165.9	225.65	137.97	57.38	21.94	1.92
1972	9.28	158.11	222.92	124.52	55.17	19.34	2.55
1973	10.18	148.32	208.57	117.83	47.78	15.2	2.06
1974	11.01	137.3	199.41	106.98	41.96	14.03	1.49
1975	9.43	124.55	188.69	101.59	34.69	12.49	1.78
1976	8.9	116.7	179.21	93.24	32.49	9.93	1.53
1977	9.41	111.22	171.73	100.16	33.94	11.06	0.54
1978	8.38	98.32	168.04	96.03	33.93	7.48	0.75
1979	6.59	96.53	172.65	100.69	35.5	8.01	0.85
1980	6.48	95.06	163.5	97.23	33.78	7.17	1.07
1981	5.37	91.93	159.31	99.71	30.28	7.83	0.34
1982	5.21	81.56	154.16	104.44	33.77	7.71	1.05
1983	4.86	77.25	147.86	103.53	33.36	7.91	0.58
1984	5.23	73.19	157.22	111.11	35.95	7.58	0.55
1985	4.76	67.8	149.36	110.81	37.86	7.37	0.56
1986	4.32	73.76	140.25	121.07	40.48	7.74	0.53
1987	4.73	74.48	141.87	122.64	45.61	7.59	0.7
1988	4.66	76.76	145.51	129.28	50.48	9.71	0.88
1989	4.43	72.5	141.21	132.43	51.4	10.43	0.91
1990	5	74.1	138.95	140.41	60.91	10.99	0.72
1991	5.5	73.08	135.15	133.88	60.51	12	0.51
1992	4.26	71.18	124.85	136.29	64.62	13.19	0.7
1993	4.63	69.62	119.84	132.26	66.52	13.24	0.89
1994	5.15	65.88	114.49	126.34	65.14	14.91	1.06
1995	5.67	67.49	109.52	130.44	66.47	15.15	1.16
1996	4.97	65.8	106.21	122.67	68.71	16.76	1.24
1997	5.43	67.38	100.52	125.7	72.78	18.54	1.06
1998	3.7	62.38	98.7	122.49	73.34	16.5	1
1999	4.11	66.24	103.14	130.27	75.69	18.17	1.12
2000	4.45	64.09	98.9	124.98	83.69	20.13	0.84
2001	4.4	62.98	101.65	125.48	79.32	21.33	1.49
2002	3.55	56.39	93.07	117.62	82.64	21.73	1.42
2003	3.86	54.24	93.2	119.92	86.84	25.13	1.21
2004	4.09	57.15	91.29	125.74	89.65	24.32	1.71
2005	3.97	56.56	90.52	122.73	89.01	23.8	1.63
2006	3.57	60.58	89.4	118.84	92.98	26.41	1.67
2007	5.11	68.48	95.22	129.12	102.45	30.27	1.64
2008	5.29	70.21	97.89	130.29	104.88	27.48	1.95
2009	3.83	68.6	95.71	128.28	101.63	30.41	1.61
2010	3.83	67.21	96.62	130.79	101.73	29.92	2.31
2011	3.26	62.72	92.34	124.13	98.87	29.55	2.09
2012	2.95	59.48	91.08	128.73	101.56	30.32	1.89
2013	2.81	53.98	87.7	123.03	97.22	29.82	2.66
2014	2.45	48.42	84.23	120.31	92.09	29.65	1.62
2015	2.57	49.15	86.87	127.39	97.5	32.3	2.41
2016	1.97	43.03	76.99	120.59	97.13	27.82	1.82
2017	1.81	43.39	78.83	118.88	90.4	29.18	2.09
2018	2.03	38.52	73.36	110.71	89.06	27.8	2.23
2019	1.29	37.4	73.72	110.99	90.16	29.34	2.57
2020	1.37	34.78	67.46	107.36	85.57	26.76	2.26
2021	1.54	33.32	68.1	109.83	88.34	26.27	1.86
2022	1.19	34.99	72.05	109.94	91.52	27.19	1.86
2023	1.32	33.22	64.55	103.8	84.5	25.25	1.92
2024	1.23	31.51	66.53	102.79	84.31	26.69	1.85
2025	1.44	32.78	67.4	104	84.75	26.01	1.89
2026	1.39	32.09	66.81	104.03	85.24	26.25	1.92
2027	1.34	31.42	66.23	104.07	85.72	26.49	1.94
2028	1.29	30.78	65.68	104.09	86.18	26.71	1.96
2029	1.25	30.16	65.14	104.12	86.62	26.93	1.98
2030	1.2	29.57	64.63	104.15	87.05	27.13	2
2031	1.16	29	64.14	104.18	87.46	27.33	2.02
2032	1.12	28.45	63.67	104.2	87.85	27.52	2.04
2033	1.08	27.93	63.21	104.22	88.23	27.71	2.06
2034	1.05	27.43	62.78	104.25	88.59	27.88	2.08
2035	1.01	26.95	62.37	104.27	88.93	28.05	2.09
2036	0.98	26.5	61.98	104.29	89.25	28.21	2.11
2037	0.95	26.07	61.61	104.31	89.56	28.36	2.13
2038	0.92	25.67	61.27	104.33	89.85	28.5	2.14
2039	0.89	25.29	60.94	104.34	90.12	28.63	2.15
2040	0.86	24.93	60.63	104.36	90.38	28.75	2.16
2041	0.84	24.6	60.34	104.38	90.62	28.87	2.18
2042	0.82	24.29	60.07	104.39	90.84	28.98	2.19
2043	0.8	24.01	59.83	104.4	91.04	29.08	2.2
2044	0.78	23.74	59.6	104.41	91.23	29.17	2.21
2045	0.76	23.51	59.4	104.43	91.4	29.25	2.21
2046	0.74	23.29	59.21	104.44	91.55	29.33	2.22
2047	0.73	23.1	59.05	104.44	91.69	29.39	2.23
2048	0.72	22.94	58.91	104.45	91.81	29.45	2.23
2049	0.71	22.79	58.78	104.46	91.91	29.5	2.24
2050	0.7	22.67	58.68	104.46	92	29.54	2.24
2051	0.69	22.58	58.6	104.47	92.07	29.58	2.25
2052	0.69	22.51	58.54	104.47	92.12	29.6	2.25
2053	0.68	22.46	58.49	104.47	92.15	29.62	2.25
2054	0.68	22.44	58.47	104.47	92.17	29.63	2.25

Fan chart shows the projected age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) in 2054.

Text alternative for Period fertility rates by age, 2054 June year

June year	0 years	5 years	20 years	45 years	65 years	75 years	85 years
1953	31.9	0.58	2.29	4.73	33.08	73.27
1954	30.51	0.81	2.54	4.36	33.71	72.27
1955	28.48	0.9	2.22	4.3	34.32	72.99
1956	29.8	0.88	1.95	4.11	33.51	72.59
1957	25.92	0.99	2.05	4.29	36.29	75.51
1958	28.91	0.76	2.38	4.68	36.46	74.63
1959	26.86	0.56	2.16	4.56	36.53	76.42
1960	26.94	0.53	1.68	4.05	34.9	78.05
1961	26	0.69	1.28	4.31	31.5	78.74
1962	26.64	0.62	1.32	4.41	32.98	80.42	204.8
1963	23.88	0.49	1.59	4.59	35.65	85.67	197.48
1964	22.58	0.68	1.65	4.16	37.03	85.09	170.75
1965	21.94	0.54	1.67	4.39	36.98	83.41	170.97
1966	22.73	0.5	1.78	4.48	36.03	84.43	191.34
1967	21.5	0.65	1.76	5.13	36.98	82.9	183.29
1968	21.56	0.58	1.88	4.75	35.05	78.86	175.07
1969	21.82	0.6	2.03	4.28	34.86	85.16	181.1
1970	20.19	0.57	1.48	4.7	36.13	89.61	177.45
1971	18.87	0.57	1.21	4.69	36.13	88.83	191.34
1972	18.1	0.56	2.07	4.18	35.61	88.05	182.9
1973	18.2	0.47	2.53	4.32	35.93	82.43	177.33
1974	19.55	0.46	1.89	4.13	34.78	80.54	183.67
1975	18.62	0.56	1.45	4.14	33.81	77.04	188.07
1976	18.5	0.61	1.64	4.31	32.65	74.85	175.11
1977	16.15	0.48	2.08	3.79	33.89	77.26	172.37
1978	17.13	0.37	2.09	3.65	30.76	75.22	161.06
1979	16.37	0.42	1.86	4.17	30.14	73.89	151.44
1980	14.51	0.43	1.93	4.04	29.97	73.95	175.89
1981	13.35	0.4	1.78	3.7	30.46	74.02	173.49
1982	13.36	0.59	2.04	3.29	27.12	69.48	169.59
1983	13.64	0.38	1.82	3.84	26.55	70.53	168.72
1984	13.57	0.46	1.77	2.78	29.53	76.23	173.52
1985	13.75	0.34	1.68	2.93	25.85	68.54	169.89
1986	11.79	0.27	1.37	3.51	28.82	73.46	162.77
1987	12.68	0.38	2.21	3.02	26.1	61.84	173.72
1988	11	0.46	2.13	2.36	25.69	70.3	142.15
1989	12.62	0.35	1.97	2.96	23.92	68.3	159.66
1990	11.96	0.46	1.9	2.74	23.15	65.58	147.01
1991	9.43	0.11	1.92	2.7	23.56	58.96	149.25
1992	9.6	0.26	2.04	2.62	24.76	55.16	125.2
1993	8.01	0.21	1.65	2.35	21.82	60.73	152.16
1994	7.61	0.24	1.75	2.41	20.06	60.88	152.74
1995	7.59	0.26	1.39	2.1	22.49	52.83	143.6
1996	6.73	0.19	1.73	2.63	19.81	58.17	158.32
1997	7.86	0.28	1.76	2.12	21.58	52.07	154.55
1998	6.89	0.25	1.19	2.72	17.07	48.92	147.87
1999	6.93	0.13	1.57	2.02	17.9	48.17	134.25
2000	6.43	0.16	1.12	2.13	15.53	46.41	134.08
2001	7.16	0.23	1.09	2.21	16.18	46.67	118.43
2002	5.85	0.17	1.13	2.16	15.54	44.1	131.64
2003	6.15	0.2	0.89	2.12	16.31	36.55	132.74
2004	6.24	0.1	1.13	2.53	13.01	41.25	122.56
2005	5.89	0.1	1.09	1.93	14.38	38.26	124.12
2006	6.22	0.23	1.1	2.2	13.68	34.22	112.41
2007	6.4	0.2	1.22	2.39	13.38	36.43	113.5
2008	5.53	0.2	1.25	2.49	13.61	33.94	116.9
2009	5.04	0.1	0.89	2.4	12.97	35.53	104.58
2010	5.51	0.13	0.71	2.15	12.28	35.99	112.82
2011	6.27	0.1	1.05	1.78	10.88	30.97	109.02
2012	5.06	0	0.79	1.88	10.62	29.31	99.87
2013	5.42	0.09	1.02	2.33	11.38	32.59	103.74
2014	5.56	0.15	0.9	1.71	9.82	30.11	104.65
2015	5.18	0.12	0.49	1.77	10.15	28.33	92.71
2016	4.54	0.18	0.62	1.67	11.09	30.75	100.73
2017	4.46	0.27	0.57	1.96	10.45	27.45	102.46
2018	5.08	0.15	0.91	2.09	9.71	27.42	100
2019	4.29	0.03	0.66	1.98	9.17	27.83	97.11
2020	5.16	0.15	0.57	1.99	9.85	26.97	90.81
2021	5.45	0.15	0.59	1.39	8.9	28.53	100.56
2022	5.87	0.15	0.69	2.05	10.64	29.33	99.63
2023	5.75	0.13	0.76	1.76	9.51	27.82	95.07
2024	4.53	0.03	0.75	1.53	8.97	26.96	91.61
2025	5.11	0.1	0.66	1.73	9.21	25.57	91.09
2026	4.93	0.1	0.64	1.7	8.92	25	90.08
2027	4.79	0.09	0.62	1.67	8.69	24.48	88.94
2028	4.65	0.09	0.61	1.64	8.48	23.98	87.84
2029	4.51	0.09	0.6	1.61	8.28	23.48	86.73
2030	4.38	0.08	0.58	1.58	8.08	22.99	85.65
2031	4.25	0.08	0.57	1.56	7.88	22.52	84.58
2032	4.13	0.08	0.56	1.53	7.7	22.05	83.52
2033	4.01	0.08	0.55	1.5	7.51	21.6	82.49
2034	3.9	0.07	0.54	1.48	7.34	21.15	81.47
2035	3.79	0.07	0.53	1.45	7.17	20.72	80.46
2036	3.68	0.07	0.52	1.43	7.01	20.3	79.48
2037	3.58	0.07	0.51	1.4	6.85	19.89	78.5
2038	3.48	0.06	0.5	1.38	6.69	19.49	77.54
2039	3.39	0.06	0.49	1.36	6.55	19.1	76.6
2040	3.3	0.06	0.48	1.33	6.4	18.71	75.67
2041	3.21	0.06	0.48	1.31	6.26	18.34	74.75
2042	3.12	0.06	0.47	1.29	6.12	17.97	73.84
2043	3.04	0.05	0.46	1.27	5.99	17.62	72.95
2044	2.96	0.05	0.45	1.24	5.86	17.27	72.06
2045	2.88	0.05	0.44	1.22	5.73	16.92	71.19
2046	2.81	0.05	0.44	1.2	5.61	16.59	70.34
2047	2.73	0.05	0.43	1.18	5.49	16.26	69.49
2048	2.66	0.05	0.42	1.16	5.37	15.94	68.65
2049	2.59	0.05	0.42	1.14	5.26	15.63	67.82
2050	2.52	0.04	0.41	1.12	5.14	15.32	67.01
2051	2.46	0.04	0.4	1.1	5.04	15.02	66.2
2052	2.4	0.04	0.4	1.08	4.93	14.72	65.41
2053	2.33	0.04	0.39	1.06	4.82	14.44	64.62
2054	2.27	0.04	0.39	1.05	4.72	14.15	63.85
2055	2.22	0.04	0.38	1.03	4.62	13.88	63.08
2056	2.16	0.04	0.37	1.01	4.53	13.6	62.33
2057	2.1	0.04	0.37	0.99	4.43	13.34	61.58
2058	2.05	0.03	0.36	0.98	4.34	13.08	60.84
2059	2	0.03	0.36	0.96	4.25	12.82	60.12
2060	1.95	0.03	0.35	0.94	4.16	12.57	59.4
2061	1.9	0.03	0.35	0.93	4.07	12.33	58.69
2062	1.85	0.03	0.34	0.91	3.98	12.09	57.98
2063	1.8	0.03	0.34	0.9	3.9	11.85	57.29
2064	1.76	0.03	0.33	0.88	3.82	11.62	56.61
2065	1.71	0.03	0.33	0.87	3.74	11.39	55.93
2066	1.67	0.03	0.32	0.85	3.66	11.17	55.26
2067	1.62	0.03	0.32	0.84	3.58	10.95	54.6
2068	1.58	0.03	0.31	0.82	3.51	10.74	53.95
2069	1.54	0.02	0.31	0.81	3.44	10.53	53.31
2070	1.5	0.02	0.3	0.8	3.36	10.33	52.67
2071	1.47	0.02	0.3	0.78	3.29	10.13	52.05
2072	1.43	0.02	0.29	0.77	3.23	9.93	51.43
2073	1.39	0.02	0.29	0.76	3.16	9.74	50.81
2074	1.36	0.02	0.28	0.74	3.09	9.55	50.21
2075	1.32	0.02	0.28	0.73	3.03	9.36	49.61
2076	1.29	0.02	0.28	0.72	2.96	9.18	49.02
2077	1.26	0.02	0.27	0.71	2.9	9	48.44
2078	1.22	0.02	0.27	0.69	2.84	8.83	47.86

June year	0 years	5 years	20 years	45 years	65 years	75 years	85 years
1953	26.38	0.64	1.19	4.1	21.94	58.88
1954	22.42	0.7	0.95	3.61	20.41	59.16
1955	21.74	0.58	0.51	3.55	20.58	60.21
1956	21.73	0.34	0.58	3.56	20.82	56.96
1957	21.87	0.44	0.81	3.68	19.94	51.36
1958	21.68	0.67	0.82	3.6	20.04	49.02
1959	20.94	0.59	0.55	3.47	20.26	53.3
1960	21.5	0.42	0.7	3.31	19.83	54.32
1961	20.31	0.43	0.71	3.28	19.24	52.54
1962	20.27	0.43	0.43	2.95	19.61	52.01	136.69
1963	17.35	0.4	0.55	3.19	21.04	52.68	145.34
1964	17.22	0.41	0.75	3.19	20.32	54.89	144.2
1965	16.36	0.39	0.53	2.96	21.2	52.46	146.64
1966	16.29	0.4	0.49	2.91	21.42	49.75	147.39
1967	15.43	0.35	0.61	2.83	21.71	49.29	139.16
1968	15.93	0.34	0.49	3.15	21.35	46.31	144.31
1969	16.72	0.46	0.43	3.95	19.97	48.62	143.01
1970	14.25	0.55	0.64	3.89	18.16	55.21	137.44
1971	15.19	0.44	0.82	3.5	18.59	53.07	135.28
1972	15.2	0.37	0.73	2.93	19.65	50.22	122.92
1973	14.09	0.34	0.56	2.92	18.44	49.83	124.51
1974	13.7	0.33	0.62	3.08	16.65	43.71	126.37
1975	13.06	0.31	0.62	3.35	16.89	43.47	127.85
1976	13.07	0.24	0.65	3.42	16.07	43.4	120.62
1977	12.25	0.38	0.57	3.09	16.57	43.86	113.87
1978	11.57	0.47	0.51	2.36	15.02	41.88	115.66
1979	11.22	0.32	0.65	2.76	15.65	41.58	109.62
1980	10.14	0.33	0.65	3.19	16.63	43.31	111.34
1981	11.66	0.42	0.69	2.77	17.17	40.95	122.51
1982	10.39	0.35	0.66	2.48	14.93	37.23	117.04
1983	11	0.2	0.45	2.35	14.66	37.18	121.61
1984	11.87	0.4	0.79	2.6	13.27	39.9	106.85
1985	9.27	0.12	0.6	2.09	14.99	34.54	110.48
1986	9.25	0.24	0.71	2.8	13.95	42.85	124
1987	10.56	0.37	0.68	1.99	13.17	39.46	103.58
1988	9.83	0.29	0.62	2.37	14.32	39.41	114.93
1989	8.94	0.24	0.58	2.1	14.76	38.67	102.07
1990	8.51	0.24	0.37	2.32	14.25	37.73	100.74
1991	6.97	0.16	0.48	2.16	12.93	34.47	103.13
1992	7	0.31	0.46	2.31	13.87	33.97	91.8
1993	6.44	0.22	0.57	1.58	11.53	34.38	101.06
1994	6.55	0.11	0.41	1.56	12.69	33.71	99.08
1995	7.02	0.24	0.71	1.74	14.23	32.47	100.8
1996	6.53	0.2	0.63	2.05	13.99	34.43	102.8
1997	6.56	0.16	0.3	1.79	11.32	33.23	86.99
1998	5.68	0.1	0.5	1.86	11.42	30.2	86.03
1999	4.41	0.2	0.42	1.58	12.63	30.34	96.61
2000	5.2	0.07	0.22	1.32	9.89	27.21	92.9
2001	5.28	0.14	0.23	1.65	10.78	26.7	86.23
2002	4.75	0.28	0.22	1.75	10.47	27.42	92.74
2003	5.62	0.03	0.74	1.78	8.49	26.82	91.21
2004	4.66	0.14	0.42	1.38	9.77	24.79	90.86
2005	5.65	0.17	0.21	1.79	9.65	23.98	87.87
2006	4.64	0.07	0.46	1.74	9.5	21.33	82.34
2007	4.65	0.1	0.59	1.44	8.31	24.31	78.22
2008	4.55	0.14	0.54	1.11	8.57	24.68	79.48
2009	4	0.07	0.45	1.5	8.48	21	77.28
2010	4.78	0.03	0.37	1.09	8.34	20.4	74.66
2011	4.31	0.14	0.54	1.41	7.59	23.29	79.03
2012	4.26	0.07	0.61	1.1	8.07	22.66	84.24
2013	4.73	0.06	0.22	1.2	6.99	21.87	79.45
2014	4.04	0.19	0.28	1.46	6.98	20.21	77.64
2015	4.8	0.06	0.38	1.49	6.84	20.65	74.23
2016	4.32	0.06	0.32	1.51	6.32	20.3	76.06
2017	4.15	0.13	0.35	1.58	6.23	19.29	76.87
2018	4.45	0.03	0.32	1.34	6.88	20.56	74.01
2019	4.09	0.1	0.23	1.26	7.47	19.24	65.77
2020	4.57	0.03	0.41	1.23	5.73	17.85	67.53
2021	3.77	0.07	0.28	1.28	6.58	18.39	66.66
2022	4.76	0.1	0.39	1.21	6.81	20.67	70.59
2023	4.47	0	0.5	1.28	7.32	20.25	74.34
2024	4.93	0	0.42	1.32	6.89	18.76	62.99
2025	4.48	0.09	0.31	1.28	6.48	17.29	67.48
2026	4.36	0.09	0.3	1.26	6.33	16.91	66.47
2027	4.21	0.08	0.29	1.24	6.16	16.53	65.59
2028	4.08	0.08	0.28	1.22	5.98	16.14	64.71
2029	3.95	0.08	0.28	1.2	5.82	15.78	63.86
2030	3.83	0.08	0.27	1.18	5.66	15.43	63.04
2031	3.71	0.07	0.26	1.16	5.52	15.09	62.23
2032	3.6	0.07	0.26	1.14	5.37	14.76	61.43
2033	3.49	0.07	0.25	1.12	5.24	14.43	60.65
2034	3.39	0.07	0.25	1.1	5.11	14.12	59.88
2035	3.29	0.06	0.24	1.08	4.98	13.82	59.12
2036	3.2	0.06	0.23	1.06	4.86	13.52	58.38
2037	3.1	0.06	0.23	1.05	4.74	13.24	57.64
2038	3.02	0.06	0.23	1.03	4.62	12.96	56.92
2039	2.93	0.06	0.22	1.01	4.51	12.68	56.2
2040	2.85	0.05	0.22	0.99	4.41	12.41	55.5
2041	2.77	0.05	0.21	0.97	4.3	12.15	54.81
2042	2.69	0.05	0.21	0.96	4.2	11.9	54.12
2043	2.62	0.05	0.2	0.94	4.1	11.65	53.45
2044	2.55	0.05	0.2	0.92	4	11.41	52.78
2045	2.48	0.05	0.2	0.91	3.91	11.17	52.13
2046	2.41	0.04	0.19	0.89	3.82	10.94	51.48
2047	2.34	0.04	0.19	0.88	3.73	10.71	50.84
2048	2.28	0.04	0.19	0.86	3.65	10.49	50.21
2049	2.22	0.04	0.18	0.85	3.56	10.27	49.59
2050	2.16	0.04	0.18	0.83	3.48	10.06	48.97
2051	2.1	0.04	0.18	0.82	3.4	9.85	48.37
2052	2.05	0.04	0.17	0.8	3.33	9.65	47.77
2053	1.99	0.04	0.17	0.79	3.25	9.45	47.18
2054	1.94	0.03	0.17	0.77	3.18	9.26	46.59
2055	1.89	0.03	0.16	0.76	3.1	9.07	46.02
2056	1.84	0.03	0.16	0.75	3.03	8.88	45.45
2057	1.79	0.03	0.16	0.73	2.97	8.7	44.89
2058	1.74	0.03	0.16	0.72	2.9	8.52	44.33
2059	1.69	0.03	0.15	0.71	2.83	8.35	43.79
2060	1.65	0.03	0.15	0.7	2.77	8.18	43.25
2061	1.61	0.03	0.15	0.68	2.71	8.01	42.71
2062	1.56	0.03	0.14	0.67	2.65	7.85	42.18
2063	1.52	0.03	0.14	0.66	2.59	7.69	41.66
2064	1.48	0.03	0.14	0.65	2.53	7.53	41.15
2065	1.44	0.02	0.14	0.64	2.47	7.38	40.64
2066	1.41	0.02	0.14	0.63	2.42	7.23	40.14
2067	1.37	0.02	0.13	0.62	2.36	7.08	39.65
2068	1.33	0.02	0.13	0.61	2.31	6.94	39.16
2069	1.3	0.02	0.13	0.59	2.26	6.8	38.68
2070	1.26	0.02	0.13	0.58	2.21	6.66	38.2
2071	1.23	0.02	0.12	0.57	2.16	6.52	37.73
2072	1.2	0.02	0.12	0.56	2.11	6.39	37.26
2073	1.17	0.02	0.12	0.55	2.07	6.26	36.8
2074	1.14	0.02	0.12	0.54	2.02	6.14	36.35
2075	1.11	0.02	0.12	0.54	1.98	6.01	35.9
2076	1.08	0.02	0.11	0.53	1.93	5.89	35.46
2077	1.05	0.02	0.11	0.52	1.89	5.77	35.03
2078	1.02	0.02	0.11	0.51	1.85	5.65	34.59

Fan chart shows the expected years of life for males at birth from period life tables from 1953 to 2078. See link to text alternative under image.

Fan chart shows the expected years of life for females at birth from period life tables from 1953 to 2078. See link to text alternative under image.

Fan chart shows the expected years of life for males at birth from cohort life tables from 1899 to 2024. See link to text alternative under image.

Fan chart shows the expected years of life for females at birth from cohort life tables from 1899 to 2024. See link to text alternative under image.

June year	2026	2031	2051
Low - 5th percentile	10000	15000	20000
Q1	23000	26000	30000
Median	30000	38000	43000
Q3	35000	44000	56000
High - 95th percentile	50000	50000	60000

More data

Aotearoa Data Explorer has detailed national population projections. The following links will take you to the three specific tables:

National population projections, by age and sex, 2024(base)-2078
National population projections, characteristics, 2024(base)-2078
National population projections, projection assumptions, 2024(base)-2078.

Definitions and metadata

National population projections (series) - DataInfo+ provides general information about national population projections.

National population projections (data collection) - DataInfo+ provides information about projections methodology.

Technical enquiries

Melissa Adams
[email protected]
03 964 8348

ISSN 1178-0584

Next related release

National labour force projections: 2024(base)-2078 will be released on 25 June 2025.

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