Statistical area 2 (SA2) and statistical area 3 (SA3) population projections released in Aotearoa Data Explorer (ADE) provide an indication of future changes in the size and age-sex structure of the population usually living in each area.
On 5 May 2026 we identified an error in female life expectancies published in Aotearoa Data Explorer (ADE) table Statistical area 2 and 3 population projections, projection assumptions, 2023(base)-2053 for instalments 1-3. This did not impact SA2/SA3 projections, other assumptions, or characteristics, which were calculated using the correct life expectancies. The ADE table has now been corrected.
Access data in Aotearoa Data Explorer (ADE)
Use ADE to view and download time-series data for SA2 and SA3 population projections:
Statistical area 2 and 3 population projections, by age and sex, 2023(base)-2053
Statistical area 2 and 3 population projections, characteristics, 2023(base)-2053
Statistical area 2 and 3 population projections, projection assumptions, 2023(base)-2053
About this release
This is the fourth instalment of the statistical area 2 (SA2) and statistical area 3 (SA3) population projections. This release includes SA2 and SA3 areas for the following territorial authority areas:
- Ruapehu district
- Western Bay of Plenty district
- Tauranga city
- Manawatu district
- Grey district
- Waimate district
- Central Otago district
- Chatham Islands territory.
These projections are by five-year age group and sex. Projections for additional territorial authority areas will be released progressively during 2026, as they become available. For more information on how to use population projections, see Population statistics - user guide | Stats NZ.
These projections supersede the previously updated 2018-base SA2 population projections, which will continue to be available on ADE until all 2023-base SA2 and SA3 population projections have been released.
Next release
Statistical area 2 and 3 population projections: 2023(base)-2053 - fifth instalment will be released on 24 June 2026.
