Subnational population projections indicate the future size and age-sex structure of the population of New Zealand's 16 regional council areas, 67 territorial authority areas, and 21 Auckland local board areas based on different combinations of fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions, and current policy settings.
More data
Aotearoa Data Explorer has detailed national population projections. The following links will take you to the three specific tables:
- Subnational population projections, by age and sex, 2023(base)-2053
- Subnational population projections, characteristics, 2023(base)-2053
- Subnational population projections, projection assumptions, 2023(base)-2053.
Definitions and metadata
Demographic projections - DataInfo+ gives the general methodology used to produce projections statistics, and related metadata.
Text alternatives
Text alternative for Projected average annual population change, by region, 2023-2053
The graph shows the low, medium, and high projected average annual population change from 2023 to 2053 for each regional council area. The projections are shown in different colours - low (blue), medium (gold), and high (red). The vertical line in the graph indicates zero percent growth. The average annual population change ranges from 1.5 percent growth in the Bay of Plenty using the high projection, to a 0.8 percent decline in the West Coast region using the low projection.
Text alternative for Population by region, medium projection, 2023 and 2053
The graph shows the medium population projection for each regional council area in 2023 and 2053. Data for 2023 are shown in blue and data for 2053 are shown in gold. The distance between the points represents the magnitude of change. Points that are further apart indicate larger changes. The 2023 population ranged from 33,900 in the West Coast to 1,755,200 in Auckland. The 2053 population ranges from 31,800 in the West Coast to 2,444,800 in Auckland.
Text alternative for Projected population change by territorial authority and Auckland local board area, medium projection, June 2023-June 2053
The map shows the territorial authority and Auckland local board areas, each coloured to show the average annual change between the estimated population at 30 June 2023 and the projected population under the medium assumptions at 30 June 2053. The colours are grouped into average annual percent change from 2023 to 2053 of: less than 0; 0 but less than 0.5 percent; 0.5 percent but less than 1 percent; 1 percent but less than 1.5 percent; 1.5 percent but less than 2 percent; and 2.0 percent or greater. The annual change ranges from 2.3 percent growth in Selwyn district to a 0.4 percent decline in Buller district. Data is available from Aotearoa Data Explorer.
Text alternative for Proportion of population aged 65+, top 15 territorial authority areas in 2053 compared with 2023, medium projection
The graph shows the projected change in the proportion of the population aged 65 and over from 2023 (blue) to 2053 (gold) for the 15 territorial authority areas expected to have the highest proportions in 2053. The distance between points represents the projected change over time. Wider gaps signify larger changes, closer gaps signify smaller changes. Thames-Coromandel district has the highest proportion of total population aged 65 years and over in 2053 with 45.5 percent. Nelson city has the 15th highest proportion of total population aged 65 years and over in 2053, the lowest proportion on the graph, with 28.9 percent.
Technical enquiries
Melissa Adams
[email protected]
03 964 8348
ISSN 1178-0681
Next release
Subnational population estimates: At 30 June 2025 will be released on 29 October 2025.
Statistical area 2 population projections: 2023(base)-2053 (first instalment) will be released on 24 November 2025.
