New World Bank report says shifting from state-led, capital-intensive industries to those that hire more workers would sustain progress and create a more resilient economy
DUSHANBE, September 22, 2025-Tajikistan has achieved remarkable progress in reducing poverty over the past decade, according to a new World Bank report released today. The Tajikistan Poverty and Equity Assessment says the national poverty rate declined from 56% in 2010 to about 20% in 2024. Over the same period, the share of the middle class increased more than fourfold, from 8% to 33% of the population.
The report points to strong upward mobility in recent years, with 35% of households moving into the middle class between 2021 and 2023. These gains are consistent with Tajikistan's National Development Strategy 2030, which aims to raise the middle class to 50% of the population and reduce poverty to below 10%.
But the country's domestic labor market has not generated enough jobs to match this expansion. Recent success has been attributed more to wage growth in existing jobs and external factors such as remittances, rather than domestic job creation. This model is not sustainable and leads to income gaps, especially in rural areas, which remain disconnected from the national and global markets due to poor transport infrastructure and digital access, thus restricting labor mobility and economic participation.
Low labor force participation across the country further limits economic opportunities. As of 2022, only 40% of the working-age population was active in the labor force, the lowest in Central Asia and among lower middle-income countries. The situation is worse for women: with female labor force participation at 21%.
Further, education and skills gaps are preventing many Tajiks from accessing higher-productivity jobs, both at home and abroad. Students leave the system without the skills needed for modern jobs, contributing to a cycle of low-wage employment. The share of out-of-school children has increased to about 31% in 2023, particularly among older students. Dropouts are strongly linked to budget constraints, long distances to schools, and parents' perceptions and education levels.
Without targeted investments in education and workforce training, Tajikistan's future labor migrants may find themselves at an increasing disadvantage, while those who remain in the country will struggle to secure well-paid jobs.
"Tajikistan's progress in reducing poverty is impressive, but sustaining and deepening these gains requires a shift in focus," said Ms. Wei Winnie Wang, Acting Country Manager for the World Bank Group in Tajikistan. "To sustain progress and build a more inclusive and resilient economy, Tajikistan needs to transition from a migration-driven model to one that prioritizes domestic job creation, reduces spatial inequalities, and strengthens investments in upskilling people. By focusing on these areas, the country can ensure that prosperity is homegrown, resilient, and shared by all citizens."
The report suggests focusing on transforming agriculture by easing crop restrictions and promoting weather-resilient technologies, fostering private sector job creation in labor-intensive sectors like agro-processing and services, expanding opportunities through improved rural education, vocational training, and infrastructure, and enhancing social protection by strengthening the Targeted Social Assistance program. These measures aim to drive inclusive growth, reduce spatial inequalities, and build resilience for vulnerable households.
"The findings of the Poverty and Equity Assessment will provide essential input for the monitoring and design of national development programs in Tajikistan," said Mr. Nuriddinzoda Akhliddin Nuriddin, Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade of Tajikistan. "With technical support from the World Bank, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, together with the Agency for Statistics, have been at the forefront of establishing and running the Council for Middle-class Expansion that serves as a platform for discussing and developing approaches to poverty and middle-class measurement, as well as policies aimed at further reducing poverty and promoting shared prosperity in Tajikistan."
The World Bank Group is one of the world's largest sources of financing and knowledge for developing countries. It is committed to reducing poverty, increasing shared prosperity, and promoting sustainable development. The International Development Association (IDA) is currently financing 26 projects in Tajikistan, totaling $1.9 billion. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) maintains an investment portfolio exceeding $70 million, supporting seven private sector clients in the development of their businesses.
