A decade ago the Philippines won a legal victory invalidating China's sweeping claims in the South China Sea, but China has intensified its efforts to gain control. The result is regular physical contestation, normalisation of aggressive and coercive conduct, and weakening diplomatic constraints, all raising the risk of crisis or conflict.
This Explainer argues that there will be no return to earlier periods of relative stability. Upholding rights set out in the UN Convention on the Law on the Sea (UNCLOS) requires sustained presence and deterrence, enabled by deeper security partnerships. ASEAN should focus on reducing and managing the risks of conflict, but negotiations with China for a code of conduct can't be concluded unless ASEAN accepts an outcome that weakens UNCLOS rights.
