Food prices are likely to go up as a short-term consequence of Britain’s voting to leave the EU, owing to the UK’s dependence on imports, according to the president of the National Farmers Union.
Meurig Raymond said the EU referendum result had been a "political car crash" and that UK farmers who receive up to £3bn in subsidies from the EU each year were headed into "uncharted waters".
But he warned that one of the most immediate impacts would be from the combination of the UK’s reliance on food imports and the pound hitting a 31-year low on Friday after the leave vote.
"Sadly, we only produce 60% of the food we consume, we’ve seen our self sufficiency fall dramatically, so we are very dependent on imported food," Raymond told the Guardian. "So a weaker pound will mean higher imported food value.
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"I would say to government … [it] could easily be held to ransom by other parts of the world if there is a climatic disaster or if currency is weak."
Raymond, who was re-elected president of the NFU in February, said the other big concern was trade negotiations, and the prospect of British exports to the EU such as lamb and cheese being hit by import tariffs.
"We export 38% of the lamb we produce in the UK into the EU, that’s a huge quantity. We are very dependent and there is huge demand in Europe for it. We exported in excess of 3m tonnes of wheat and barley into Europe [a year]. We do export a fair bit of beef and a fair bit of added-value cheese and dairy product."
He added: "Each sector is vulnerable if we lost those export opportunities. But the sheep sector will be the one that will be hit the most."
The other big unknown is whether the UK government will match the £2.4-£3bn – the figure varies on exchange rates – currently paid in subsidies by Europe to farmers each year through the common agricultural policy (CAP).
"The average income of a farmer was just over £20,000 in 2014, and 55% of that was EU money, so that’s how important that money is," said Meurig.
Brexiters had promised during the referendum campaign that a UK government would match the subsidies.
"The truth of the matter is that if we left the EU there would be an £18bn-a-year dividend, so could we find the money to spend £2bn a year on farming and the environment? Of course we could. Would we? Without a shadow of a doubt," said farming minister George Eustice in February.
But Meurig said despite such statements, there had been no detail on what such a subsidy scheme might look like. "I promise we will hold their feet to the fire [on their promises to match EU subsidies]," he said.
One silver lining for the NFU will be that a UK out of the EU will no longer be covered by a moratorium on widely-used insecticides that was brought in by the EU to protect bees and other pollinators. The farmers’ union has repeatedly applied for exemptions to the ban on neonicotinoids.
"A lot of decision-making on this has been done on emotion rather than science. No farmer wants to be using a product that he believes will cause issues in the environment," said Meurig, who added he did not believe such ‘neonics’ were responsible for bee population declines.
While scientists say there is not enough data to directly link neonics to bee population declines, there is an increasing consensus that exposure to the insecticides does harm bees.
Meurig insisted that a British agricultural policy would not be stripped of the protections for nature that are built as a condition into subsidies received through the CAP. "When farmers are profitable, they will invest back into their farm, and the environment around," he said.
The NFU has called an extraordinary meeting of its governing body on 1 July to discuss what the Brexit vote means for farming.
The Soil Association, which represents organic farmers and producers of organic products, said nature was less likely be protected outside of the EU.
Helen Browning, the charity’s chief executive, said: "The Soil Association is very disappointed that the UK will be leaving the European Union. One of the Soil Association’s key charitable objectives is to preserve, conserve and protect the environment and our view is that these objectives were far more likely to be achieved as part of the EU."
