Victoria is set to fall further behind all states and territories on its share of social housing without additional funding, new analysis by Community Housing Industry Association Victoria (CHIA Vic) warns.
The analysis, which is based on funding commitments, estimates that by 2030, Victoria's social housing share will flatline, growing by just 0.02 percentage points compared to now.
The gap between Victoria and all other states and territories is also expected to widen.
Victoria's Big Housing Build (BHB) has significantly increased the state's social housing stock, however Queensland and Tasmania delivered a similar or better net impact over the same time.
With BHB funding all committed, current state and federal investment is estimated to deliver more than 9,300 social homes in Victoria by 2030, still far short of what's needed to house the more than 56,000 families on a waitlist that continues to grow.
In contrast, Queensland will add more than 17,000 social homes and NSW nearly 15,000 over the same period. This is despite both states already having a higher proportion of social housing than Victoria.
In its pre-budget submission, CHIA Vic has called on Victoria's Labor government to outspend LNP-led Queensland on social housing to close that gap.
State |
Current # of social homes (June 2025) |
Current proportion (%) of social housing (June 2025) |
Projected # of social homes (2030) |
Projected proportion (%) of social housing (2030) |
Vic |
87,356 |
3.21% |
96,712 |
3.23% |
QLD |
76,426 |
3.51% |
93,903 |
4.00% |
WA |
44,234 |
3.94% |
48,995 |
4.08% |
NSW |
156,735 |
4.74% |
171,575 |
4.85% |
SA |
46,686 |
6.01% |
47,639 |
5.84% |
ACT |
11,873 |
6.42% |
13,200 |
6.56% |
Tas |
13,646 |
5.59% |
18,766 |
7.41% |
NT |
11,041 |
13.07% |
13,666 |
15.16% |
Source: CHIA Vic analysis of data compiled from State and Territory Annual Reports and announcements, ABS, Housing Australia and Productivity Commission Report on Government Services.
"Victoria lags behind every other state on the proportion of social housing and without a funding pipeline from the government, we're set to fall even further behind," CHIA Vic CEO Sarah Toohey said.
"On current funding commitments, we estimate that Victoria's social housing share will barely budge by 2030.
"Victoria's Big Housing Build has made an incredible difference to thousands of Victorians, but it wasn't enough to get us to the front of the pack nationally and now that funding has dried up, we face slipping further behind.
"It's great that Victoria is expected to have thousands more social homes by 2030 but it's nowhere near enough to meet growing demand.
"Queensland has set the gold standard, committing $5.6 billion over four years to accelerate social housing growth, plus an ongoing baseline of $500 million every year starting from 2029-30.
"In this budget, the Victorian Labor government needs to go further than the LNP Queensland government, and commit to a baseline of $620 million each year for the next 10 years to account for our larger population.
"An ambitious ongoing pipeline of funding delivers certainty for renters and the sector, lowers costs to build homes, and can attract further funding through the federal government's HAFF program.
"Without bold and sustained investment, Victoria's waitlist will keep growing, waiting times will stretch longer, and more people risk being pushed into homelessness."
CHIA Vic Budget recommendation: Set up the long-term expansion and sustainability of Victoria's social housing through a bigger and better Queensland-style pipeline
Estimated investment required: With around 1.5 million more people than Queensland, Victoria needs an equivalent ongoing commitment of $620 million every year
Saving source: In the 2025-26 Victorian Budget there was an estimated remaining $4.5 billion for the removal of 110 level crossings
