Africa could double its GDP by 2040 if annual infrastructure investment by African countries rises to USD 155 billion, according to a new joint report from the OECD and the African Union Commission.
Africa's Development Dynamics 2025: Infrastructure, Growth and Transformation shows that an average of USD 83 billion was invested in Africa's infrastructure between 2016 and 2020 per year, representing 3% of the continent's GDP. The report highlights that raising this to USD 155 billion - or 5.6% of Africa's GDP in 2024 - could accelerate annual growth by 4.5 percentage points per year, helping exceed the African Union's Agenda 2063 objective of 7% annual growth and more than doubling Africa's GDP by 2040. Comoros, Lesotho, Tanzania and Zambia already invest more than 5% of GDP in infrastructure, approaching the levels of China (6.7%) and Viet Nam (5.1%).
Governments account for 41% of Africa's infrastructure spending, making them key to scaling up investment. However, fiscal constraints and rising debt are putting pressure on public budgets: from 2019 to 2023, African governments spent on average seven times more on debt servicing than on infrastructure.
Bilateral and multilateral development partners fund 48% of Africa's infrastructure investment. Official development finance for infrastructure rose from USD 10 billion in 2010 to nearly USD 15 billion in 2023, and development bank disbursements increased from USD 4.2 billion to 8.2 billion over the same period. However, future support is uncertain: official development assistance is projected to fall by as much as 17% in 2025, after a 9% drop in 2024. Africa's least developed countries are expected to be the most affected by those cuts, with official development assistance across sub-Saharan Africa projected to decline by 16% to 28%.
Scaling up private capital will be key to meeting future infrastructure investment needs. Currently, it accounts for only 11% of Africa's infrastructure investment, lower than in other regions, despite potential returns of up to 20%, among the highest globally.
Africa's Development Dynamics 2025 provides several policy recommendations to attract higher levels of quality investment in infrastructure:
- Boost infrastructure where economic returns on investment are the highest: roads, railways, fibre-optic cables, and solar energy. By connecting economic hubs and lowering trade costs, this investment can stimulate Africa's regional integration and participation in global value chains.
- Align national and regional plans - such as the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa Priority Action Plan - with development corridors and urban infrastructure to unlock productivity.
- Improve infrastructure governance and sustainability through stronger public-private partnerships, better cost recovery and maintenance, and infrastructure quality certifications such as the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa Quality Label.
- Strengthen regulatory frameworks and improve the availability of reliable data to help private investors identify untapped investment opportunities in infrastructure.
- Build environmental and social risk management more systematically into planning.
