As Ukraine prepares to enter the fifth year of the full-scale Russian invasion on 24 February, ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure continue to strain living conditions for millions. According to new data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), an estimated 325,000 Ukrainian returnees could be displaced again in the coming months, with more than one-third considering moving abroad again.
"After four years of war, resilience alone cannot sustain families through yet another winter of blackouts and freezing temperatures," said IOM Director General Amy Pope. "Safe housing, reliable energy, and essential services are not luxuries - they are fundamental to people's safety, survival and dignity. Without sustained support, energy disruptions risk forcing families from their homes once more and undermining hard-won returns."
As of January 2026, Ukraine hosts 3.7 million internally displaced people. Since the escalation of the war, more than 4.4 million people have returned from displacement. This includes over one million people who returned from abroad. However, not all those who crossed back into Ukraine have been able to return home, with 372,000 people still internally displaced within the country.
With winter temperatures dropping to -20°C (-4°F) and emergency power outages continuing nationwide, these intentions to leave the country reflect the cumulative strain of insecurity, damaged housing, and limited access to electricity and heating.
Winter-related needs are widespread. Across key areas of return, households reported acute shortages of power banks, generators, and materials for housing repairs, while unmet needs exceeded 90 per cent in some frontline regions. Recent returnees were particularly affected, reporting higher reliance on crisis-level coping strategies and elevated levels of psychological distress.
Since 2022, IOM has delivered a large-scale, nationwide response to the Ukraine crisis, supporting up to 6.9 million people inside the country, directly and indirectly, as well as millions more across 11 neighbouring countries. Through its field presence, data and analysis, and partnerships with more than 120 national and 150 regional actors, IOM continues to link life-saving assistance with recovery and longer-term solutions for millions across Ukraine and abroad.
To prevent further displacement, IOM urges the international community to scale up winterization, housing repairs, livelihoods support, and integrated mental health and psychosocial services, particularly in frontline and high-return areas. Without timely and adequate assistance, continued energy disruptions risk triggering further displacement and undermining recovery efforts.
