There is a high likelihood of above-normal rainfall across most of the northern parts of Greater Horn of Africa during the critical June-September rainy season.
The outlook was issued during the 70th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) - one of the multiple WMO regional climate outlook forums which support National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in providing tailored climate information for decision-making.
GHACOF brings together weather and climate experts as well as users in climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, water and disaster management. The information provided is vital in - for example planning health campaigns against malaria and water-borne diseases; in crop planting and irrigation decisions; as well as advance planning for weather, climate and water-related hazards.
June to September is a vital rainy season for countries in the northern and western parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, accounting for over 50% of annual rainfall and more than 80% in most parts of Sudan.
This makes the seasonal prediction particularly significant for early action and economic planning.
The outlook was released IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) , which hosts a WMO Regional Climate Centre IGAD.
Highlights:
- There is a 55% probability of above-normal rainfall over central Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northern and southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and eastern Uganda. Additionally, western Uganda, South Sudan, southern Sudan, Djibouti, and western Eritrea are expected to experience wetter-than-average conditions (approximately 45% probability).
- Conversely, there is a high chance of below-average rainfall over the coastal areas of Somalia and Kenya, northwestern South Sudan, and southeastern Ethiopia.
- The onset of rains is likely to be normal over most parts of the region, with a few regions that are expected to have an early onset. However, in parts of western Ethiopia, a delayed onset is more probable.
- Countries such as Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi are expected to remain mostly dry, as this is not typically their main rainy season.
- The temperature outlook shows a likelihood of warmer-than-average conditions over much of the region, with higher probabilities over southern Ethiopia and Somalia, eastern Kenya, and northern Sudan. Conversely, average to below-average temperatures are expected over the IGAD-Karamoja cluster, Djibouti, Eritrea, central Sudan, and northeastern Ethiopia.
While wetter conditions bring opportunities for agriculture and water access, they also raise the risk of flooding and waterborne diseases. ICPAC urges regional and national authorities to take proactive measures to prepare and respond effectively.
