The Property Council of Australia said dwelling commencements sharply fell over the quarter, down 57.4 per cent to 859 dwellings, pointing to a thinning pipeline and heightened risk to future completions unless conditions improve.
Property Council ACT & Capital Region Executive Director Ashlee Berry said the figures were an early warning sign that sustained delivery cannot be assumed without continued focus on feasibility and certainty.
"Completions are what ultimately matter, but today's commencements numbers are a red flag for the supply pipeline," Ms Berry said.
"If fewer projects are starting now, it becomes much harder to lift the number of homes being delivered in future quarters."
Ms Berry said global conditions are adding further pressure to a tight construction environment.
"Escalating tensions in the Middle East are pushing up energy costs, disrupting supply chains and creating input cost volatility – that has real consequences for project feasibility," she said.
"These global pressures are landing on top of local constraints, including construction costs, labour availability, financing conditions and government taxes and charges – all of which continue to affect delivery."
Ms Berry said feasibility remains the central issue, particularly for medium and higher-density housing.
"The fundamentals have not changed – if projects don't stack up, they don't proceed, and if they don't proceed, completions will not lift.
"That is why settings like Lease Variation Charge reform are so important. The direction is right, but the delivery of that reform needs to translate into real feasibility improvements on the ground.
"The ACT is well placed to meet its share of the Accord target, but that will only happen if we keep a clear focus on feasibility, certainty and delivery.
"With more than half the Accord period still ahead, the opportunity is there, but it needs sustained effort to realise it," Ms Berry said.
