AFL Grand Final and Parade weather: Calm conditions for clash

Click here for a Video News Release with the Bureau’s Dr Adam Morgan discussing AFL Grand Final and Parade weather.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s forecast for Grand Final Day in Melbourne is dry, so does that mean Richmond will romp in – or will the GWS Giants enjoy a fairy-tale finale?

Statistically speaking Richmond thrive in dry grand finals, but in terms of temperatures there’s no strong signal either way.

The Bureau is forecasting a maximum temperature of 16 degrees for the big game. While it rains on average 1 in 3 Grand Finals, this year senior forecaster Richard Carlyon says it’s unlikely.

“We’re looking at a partly cloudy day, with light south to south westerly winds and a top of 16 degrees – not far under the average temperature for Grand Final Day – 18.2 degrees,” Carlyon said.

Richmond Tigers have played in 11 winning grand finals and 11 losing grand finals since joining the VFL/AFL in 1908.

It has rained on only 1 out of Richmond’s 11 premierships – which was 1921 when there were showers (1.5mm of rain) and a mild maximum of 17.7°C.

It has rained on 7 out of the 11 occasions Richmond have lost the Grand Final, including the wettest grand final on record in 1927, when 34551 people witnessed Richmond 1.7 (13) lose to Collingwood 2.13 (25) on a cold, wet October 1 (16.3mm recorded to 9am the next morning).

Greater Western Sydney have just entered their first Grand Final since joining the AFL in 2012, so there aren’t any grand final performance statistics for them yet.

Historical Grand Final Stats:

• Just under 1 in 3 GFs have rain during the day.

• Hottest: 31.3°C in 2015 (Hawthorn def West Coast)

• Coldest: 11.3°C in 1958 (Collingwood def Melbourne) – also a showery day

• Wettest: October 1, 1927

• Last year: 14.0°C (West Coast def Collingwood)

While it’s looking dry for the game, Friday’s Grand Final Parade is shaping up to be a little damp, with showers moving into the Melbourne area from around midday.

“We’re not looking at a lot of rain for the Melbourne area, maybe one or two millimetres. However, the wind is going to turn southerly following our maximum of 17 degrees. This cool, southerly wind means that by the time the parade starts it’ll probably ‘feel’ around 14 degrees, so a bit chilly,” Carlyon said.

“A brolly, scarf and maybe a team beanie might be a good idea if you’re heading into the city.”

/Bureau of Meteorology Public Release. This material comes from the originating organization and may be of a point-in-time nature, edited for clarity, style and length. View in full here.