The gross value of Australia's agricultural production is expected to fall by 2.8% to $90.7 billion in 2025-26, driven by lower crop and livestock production volumes, according to the June quarter forecasts released by ABARES today.
The value of agricultural production in 2025-26 is tipped to be the third highest on record and worth $97.5 billion when fisheries and forestry are included.
ABARES executive director Dr Jared Greenville said favourable seasonal conditions across northern NSW, Queensland and southern Western Australia had provided a strong start to the 2025-26 winter cropping season.
However, production outcomes across South Australia, western Victoria, southern NSW and northern cropping regions of Western Australia - where much of the winter crop has been dry sown - rest on a knife's edge and are highly dependent on the positive rainfall outlook for many of these regions.
"Winter cropping conditions in those areas are at a critical point in the season, especially where there is a total lack of soil moisture," Dr Greenville said.
"The rainfall outlook for these regions is currently positive, which is embedded in our current forecasts, but if not realised creates a downside risk to national production figures.
"Despite the risks, the overall seasonal outlook is positive but is expected to lead to lower production than last year.
"Nationally, an expected fall in crop production in 2025-26 will lead to a $2.1 billion fall in crop value and $0.5 billion reduction in livestock and livestock product values."
While livestock and livestock production volumes are expected to fall (down by 3%) as farmers start restocking, demand for Australian livestock remains strong, as do export prices.
Export values are expected to fall by $2.6 billiongiven lower livestock and crop export volumes. However, the forecast total of $71.7 billion for 2025-26 (or $76.7 billion when fishery and forestry exports are included) is still expected to be the third highest recorded.
Dr Greenville noted Australian export volumes were expected to be resilient despite subdued global demand and uncertainty around global trade policies.
"Australian agricultural exports are expected to be supported by tightening global grain stocks, demand for Australian red meat and a relatively low Australian dollar,"he said.
Meanwhile, average broadacre farm profit is expected to fall to $141,000 but remain above the 10-year average, driven by predicted falls in broadacre cropping and livestock production.
In addition, record flooding last month across the Hunter, Mid-Coast and Northern Rivers regions of NSW is expected to result in losses to livestock, farm infrastructure, and disruption to the production and supply of milk from affected dairy farm across the region.
Despite significant challenges from an uncertain trade environment, flooding and risks around rainfall - the outlook for Australia's farm sector remains strong with the value of production expected to be the third highest on record in 2025-26.
