Following a record year in 2025-26, ABARES is forecasting the value of agricultural production to fall by 5% to $98.3 billion in 2026-27, ($104.5 billion when fisheries and forestry are included).
Agricultural export value is expected to fall, down $7 billion to $74.8 billion in 2026-27 ($79.3 billion including fisheries and forestry exports).
This drop in value reflects lower crop production volume and livestock prices resulting from expectations of less favourable seasonal conditions. High fuel and fertiliser costs will continue to pressure growers returns, but the drier seasonal outlook is set to have a greater impact on grower decisions.
ABARES Acting Executive Director David Galeano said that while the Middle East conflict was impacting input prices and weighing on global economic growth, the value of production overall was remaining resilient.
"Farmers' decisions over the last few months have been shaped heavily by seasonal conditions and gross margins. Despite the headwinds facing the sector, farmers who have received favourable rainfall are making the most of the opportunity.
"However, variable rainfall in summer and autumn has limited area planted to winter crops and pasture growth in some regions. Also, many cropping regions are expected to face drier than average winter conditions." Mr Galeano said.
Total crop production value is forecast to fall by $4.5 billion in 2026-27, to $50.9 billion. Australian winter crop production is forecast to decline by 21% to 54.5 million tonnes reflecting lower average yields and a fall in area planted.
Summer crop production is estimated to have fallen by 15% to 4.4 million tonnes in 2025-26, still well above the 10-year average to 2024-25.
Livestock and livestock product value is forecast to decline by $1.1 billion in 2026-27 to $47.4 billion, down from a record high in 2025-26, driven by lower prices.
The higher input costs and lower crop and livestock production are expected to impact profits. Average broadacre farm business profits are set to decline by 70% in 2026-27.
"We expect fertiliser and fuel input costs to remain elevated in 2026-27. Farm revenue is forecast to decline due to lower crop and livestock production volumes and lower prices received for livestock," Mr Galeano said.
The ABARES June 2026 quarter Agricultural Commodities and Australian Crop reports can be viewed here: Agricultural outlook
