The three-page fuel plan the Australian government released last week was very light on detail. So too was Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's address to the nation . This week, Energy Minister Chris Bowen moved to reassure Australians their fuel supply was safe "well into May".
Authors
- Peter Newman
Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University
- Ray Wills
Adjunct Professor, The University of Western Australia
It's understandable the government is focused on the immediate problem. Australia imports almost all its liquid fuels via very long supply chains, making it highly exposed to disruption. But as the war on Iran drags on, it won't be nearly enough.
As analysts have pointed out , what we need is a longer-term plan focused not on fuel, but on energy security.
If policymakers conclude the answer to fuel shortages is to simply build much larger liquid fuel reserves, they will lock Australia into a worse dependence on less reliable supplies of petrol, diesel and other liquid fuels. As geopolitical tensions increase, this reliance is foolish in the extreme.
What Australia needs isn't bigger fuel tanks. It's to build energy independence. A nation able to run its transport sector on its own resources is a nation better able to weather global uncertainty. The fastest and most cost-effective way to do so is to accelerate the electrification of transport, powering vehicles with electricity from renewables and storage.
From oil stockpiles to electrified oil resilience
The longstanding fuel supply goal set by the International Energy Agency (IEA) is for nations to have 90 days' supply stored. Australia has long fallen short of that aim.
Much analysis has focused on this gap.
This misses the point. The 90-day stockholding standard was designed for a different era. It followed the 1973 oil crisis that gave rise to the IEA, when oil was the unquestioned backbone of transport and strategic planning.
In recent years, Australia's rapid expansion of solar, wind and battery storage has shown gas can be turned from mainstay to support role .
When combined with EVs, the same technologies can do the same for oil across many - but not yet all - forms of transport. One reason China has gone so fast on EVs is precisely to slash its reliance on foreign oil.
This means EVs, renewables and storage are not just a boon for climate action. They're strategic assets which bolster energy security. Charged on Australian solar and wind, EVs reduce oil imports and cut household fuel costs.
Our analysis suggests Australia could have had three times as many EVs on the road if scare campaigns had not delayed sensible policy.
It was a missed opportunity to reduce dependence on oil. Every time a new internal combustion vehicle is bought, it makes the nation a little more dependent on volatile oil markets and insecure supply chains.
Electrification can do more and more
Heavier types of transport have long been seen as hard to electrify, from ships to trucks to aircraft. But this is changing.
Rapid advances in batteries mean electric ships and ferries are now viable. Electric planes, too, are proving possible on shorter routes , while electric trucks make sense for shorter runs until long-distance recharge capacity is in place.
For the sectors hardest to electrify, such as long-distance air travel, there will likely be a role for biofuels made from plant oils. If produced sustainably, these liquid fuels can begin decarbonising aviation while battery and aircraft technologies mature further. Trials are ongoing .
Fossil-fuel alternatives such as coal-to-liquids would only deepen our dependence on carbon‑intensive fuels.
6 things a credible fuel plan should include
A credible fuel-security strategy for Australia must ensure provision of short-term liquid fuel stocks, especially for critical services such as freight and farming as well as remote communities and defence. But it must go much further than that. It should include:
A clear timeframe to electrify most new road transport vehicles, supported by strong fuel efficiency and emissions standards so Australian vehicles no longer lag the world .
A program to boost uptake of electric trucks, following China's example . Megawatt charging stations or battery swapping sites will be needed, and requiring service stations to have truck chargers could help.
Accelerate renewables and storage deployment so that clean local energy pushes out largely imported oil and gas.
Use EVs and stationary batteries to boost energy resilience in a coordinated way . The large batteries of EVs can act as movable storage able to power communities and critical infrastructure during supply shocks or power outages due to extreme weather. Large batteries could be delivered by train .
Accelerate use of Australian-produced biofuels such as canola oil to replace jet fuel and the bunker fuel used by large ships. Build supporting infrastructure in ports and airports.
Plan for the orderly decline of oil . Ensure any extra fuel reserves are targeted, modest and focused on genuine national interest uses, rather than prolonging business-as-usual use of petrol, diesel, jet fuel and bunker fuel.
Business as unusual
In response to global uncertainty, the Albanese government has effectively promised a return to normal in its focus on economic resilience, productivity and cost of living pressures.
That's risky, given we don't know when - or if - normal will ever return.
It would make much more sense to take a clear-eyed look at how oil imports make Australia vulnerable .
The clean energy transition is well under way across Australia's power grids. But the government has yet to release a plan linking this to the energy security of our transport systems.
If Australia is to be secure amid uncertainty, leaders cannot double down on the highly vulnerable supply chains which put us in this position. Real fuel security means shifting away from foreign fuels as quickly as possible.
We should measure our progress not just with how many days of fuel we have, but in how many petrol and diesel cars, trucks and trains, and even tractors and headers, have been replaced with electric versions. Over time, we can measure progress for planes and ships running on biofuels and batteries.
The first step is to change our thinking. Rather than focus on managing our dependence on oil, we need to think about how to end it.
Peter Newman was the Co-ordinating Lead Author for Transport on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 Mitigation Report.
Ray Wills advises clients within the clean energy sector through his business, Future Smart Strategies. This article did not receive specific financial or in-kind support.
