Modelling used by the Business Council of Australia to claim a strong 2035 target would cost billions lacks credibility, the Australian Conservation Foundation said today.
The modelling by McKinsey for the BCA:
- Misrepresents Australia's starting point. The modelling establishes a '50% by 2035' scenario, rather than treating Australia's present trajectory (51% by 2035) as a base case, adding billions for infrastructure and technologies that would be economically beneficial anyway.
- Omits the benefits of decarbonisation, including the productivity and efficiency dividends of clean technologies.
- Uses out-dated baselines and data (including clean technology adoption trajectories), misrepresenting Australia's energy transition progress.
- Doesn't follow a least-cost methodology, relying instead on inefficient, ineffective and costly technology choices like carbon capture and storage.
- Does not factor in the costs of climate inaction, including lost productivity from disasters. More severe, more frequent extreme weather events cost billions, from rescue and clean up, to longer term impacts on fishing, agriculture, defence, insurance and tourism.
"While there's a lot we don't know about what the world will be like in 2035, we know the damage from climate change will continue to accelerate," said ACF's climate change program manager Gavan McFadzean.
"This Frontier Economics-style modelling completely ignores the massive costs of letting climate change rip: increasingly pricey rescue and clean up from extreme weather events, not to mention impacts on multiple industries including agriculture, fishing, insurance and tourism.
"Is scaremongering over climate action really what the BCA's membership wants the peak body to lobby for?
"A return to climate policy paralysis will undermine investor confidence in Australia's energy, manufacturing and industrial base.
"To give Australians and our environment the best chance of holding global warming at the safest levels now possible, Australia should set a 2035 target of no less than 80%."
