As wildfire seasons lengthen, the impact of smoke on public health continues to rise. While wildfires are most common in the western United States, a report from Climate Central found that every county in the contiguous U.S. now experiences at least 16 days of wildfire smoke annually. A recent study suggests that the current annual U.S. deaths linked to wildfire smoke could rise by mid-century from 40,000 to up to 70,000, depending on future emissions trajectories.
To help communities better respond to smoke-related health risks, researchers at Penn State are examining how people in the Northeast receive, interpret and act on air-quality alerts. By analyzing information shared through government agencies, news outlets and social media, the team aims to improve how warnings are communicated, understood and trusted.
On the latest episode of "Growing Impact," the team discusses the challenges associated with wildfire smoke information sharing and how it affects the public.
"Information comes from everywhere - the EPA, CDC, local news, social media and even word of mouth - but those sources often don't align, creating mixed messages across apps and outlets," said Manzhu Yu, an associate professor in the Department of Geography and the project's principal investigator. "During extreme events, even short-term forecasts can differ or be delayed, making it difficult to quickly calibrate or trust what's coming next."
Hong Wu, an associate professor of landscape architecture and team member, said recent Northeast wildfire smoke events underscore the need to integrate social science with modeling and forecasting to raise awareness and mitigate health impacts.
"It's challenging for the public to know whether data come from simulations or measurements, and in a short time frame it's nearly impossible to verify accuracy," Wu said. "We want to understand which sources people rely on, how much they trust them and how that shapes their response."
According to Yu, when people cannot tell how confident a warning is or why different sources disagree, they may delay health-protective actions such as staying indoors, wearing a mask or running an air purifier.
"When information is uncertain or conflicting, it also becomes easy for individuals or institutions to selectively use data to fit their interests," said Sarah Rajtmajer, an associate professor in the College of Information Sciences and Technology and team member. "Even well-intentioned organizations struggle to provide a single agreed-upon metric, which makes this space vulnerable to misinterpretation or bias."
"Growing Impact" is a podcast by the Institute of Energy and the Environment. It features Penn State researchers who have been awarded IEE seed grants and discusses their foundational work as they further their projects. The podcast is available on multiple platforms, including YouTube, Apple, Amazon and Spotify.
