The Bureau of Meteorology has issued the long-range forecast for the 2025 summer season, and it shows summer days and nights are likely to be warmer than average across most of Australia.
Nationally, summer rainfall is likely to be below average for parts of the west and inland parts of the east.
However, for much of the east coast and south the summer forecast does not currently show a clear rainfall signal: there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
The forecast will evolve over summer, and the seasonal forecast will be updated every week.
The community can stay up to date with the latest long-range forecast on our website and select their location for detailed information about their area.
There is an increased chance of unusually warm daytime temperatures for much of the north-west of Australia, large parts of Queensland and much of the south-east including Tasmania.
There is an increased chance of unusually warm overnight temperatures across much of the country, especially in northern Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to return to neutral in December. The latest conditions in the tropical Pacific indicate a relatively week La Niña event is underway. This La Niña event is expected to be short-lived. Our rainfall forecast currently suggests there will be little overall influence from this event.
Every year between October and April is Australia's peak time for severe thunderstorms, tropical cyclones, flooding, heatwaves and bushfires.
Severe thunderstorms are more common from October to December, bringing the risk of heavy rainfall, damaging winds, large hail and the risk of flooding anywhere in Australia.
The Northern Australian wet season is currently underway where widespread rainfall is more likely and can lead to flooding.
Australia's fire agencies advise there is an increased risk of fire for parts of Victoria, western and southern Western Australia, and parts of central northern New South Wales.
2025-2026 summer long-range forecast for states and territories
Queensland
Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across Queensland. There is an increased chance of unusually warm daytime temperatures for large areas.
Warmer than usual nights are very likely for much of the state, with an increased chance of unusually warm overnight temperatures, especially in the north.
Summer rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of the far north and below average for western parts. There are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall in the east.
New South Wales and the ACT
Rainfall for December is likely to be below average for much of New South Wales and the ACT.
The forecast for January and February for most areas currently shows there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
The forecast for summer as a whole currently shows below average rainfall is likely for large parts of inland New South Wales.
Summer temperatures are likely to be above average during the day and overnight for much of New South Wales and the ACT.
There is an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures in the ACT and some central and eastern parts of New South Wales.
Victoria
Warmer than usual summer days and nights are likely across Victoria, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures for much of the state.
The forecast for December currently shows rainfall is likely to be below average in Victoria.
The forecast for January and February currently shows there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
Western Australia
The summer forecast currently shows that rainfall is likely to be below average for large parts of Western Australia. Above, below or near-average rainfall are all possible outcomes for the south.
Summer days and nights are likely to be warmer than usual throughout most of Western Australia.
There is an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures in the northern half of the state. There is an increased chance of unusually high night-time temperatures for the north, as well as the south-west.
South Australia
Summer days and nights are likely to be warmer than average throughout South Australia.
The forecast for December currently shows below average rainfall is likely for much of the state.
The forecast for January and February for most areas currently shows there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
Tasmania
Tasmania is very likely to have warmer than usual summer days and nights.
There is an increased chance of unusually high temperatures for much of the state.
The summer forecast currently shows there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
Northern Territory
The forecast for December currently shows below average rainfall is likely throughout the Territory.
The forecast for January and February for most areas currently shows there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
For summer as a whole, rainfall is likely to be below average for some parts of the west and north.
Summer days and nights are very likely to be warmer than usual for much of the Northern Territory.
There is an increased chance of unusually warm temperatures, especially in the north.
Spring preliminary summary
Spring rainfall has been average to above average for much of the country but below average for parts of the south-east mainland.
While spring has been warmer than usual for most of the country, overall temperatures have been close to average for parts of the south, but cooler than usual for south-west Tasmania.
Spring daytime temperatures have been above average for much of the mainland, and very much above average for much of Queensland and the east coast, and parts of the north.
Heatwaves occurred in northern, central and eastern parts of the country in October and November.
Daytime temperatures have been close to average across parts of the south and below average for western Tasmania.
Spring night-time temperatures have been above to very much above average across much of the northern mainland.
Night-time temperatures have been close to average in much of the south-west and south-east, with areas of below average night-time temperatures in the central south-east and far south of Western Australia.
The national summary for spring and November will be on the Bureau's website from 1 December 2025.
Detailed summaries for spring and November for each state, territory and capital city will be published on 3 December 2025.
