A powerful new commodity bull market may already be underway, according to Canaccord Genuity Head of Mining Research Reg Spencer, who delivered the call during the opening session of the 25th RIU Explorers Conference at The Esplanade in Fremantle.
Speaking to a packed auditorium, Spencer delivered a clear message to a record-attendance crowd: the commodities sector may be entering one of its most powerful cycles in decades.
Despite a bruising start to 2026 marked by sharp pullbacks and wild price swings, Spencer believes investors are witnessing something far more significant than short-term turbulence - the emergence of a broad-based bull market across almost all major commodities.
"I started to go haywire," Spencer told delegates. "I told the Vertical Events team we might need a last-minute change - hence the somewhat bland agenda title, 'market update'. What I really want to talk about is what we believe is an almost everything commodity bull market."
Spencer pointed to extreme volatility across global markets this year, with equities, currencies and metals all experiencing outsized moves. Gold surged into 2026 before retreating in late January following shifting interest-rate expectations and aggressive profit-taking after what he described as a "parabolic rise." Copper hit record highs before pulling back 13%, uranium broke through US$100/lb before retracing, and lithium rallied 61% in January only to correct 20%.
Yet, in Spencer's view, volatility is not a warning sign - it is a hallmark of powerful bull markets.
"Despite the fear and uncertainty volatility brings, we think we remain firmly in the middle of a major commodity bull market," he said.
While some observers attribute commodity strength to a weaker US dollar, Spencer argues the drivers are far more structural. Referencing the Bloomberg Commodity Index - spanning energy, agriculture, precious and industrial metals - he said the upward trend extends well beyond currency movements.
"If you look deeper into the fundamentals across key metal markets, the strength is structural and demand-driven. This isn't just about FX."
Gold remains a standout performer, rising 16% year-to-date and 73% over the past 12 months. Even after a sharp correction triggered by the appointment of a more hawkish Federal Reserve chair, Spencer remains resolutely bullish.
"Don't lose the faith. The drivers of our view haven't changed."
Those drivers include geopolitical instability, safe-haven demand, record sovereign debt, sustained central-bank buying and concerns around currency debasement. US federal debt now sits near US$39 trillion, with global debt levels at historic highs - conditions Spencer says are inherently supportive of hard assets.
Silver has tracked gold's strength with even greater volatility, rising 240% from October 2025 to its January peak before correcting 40%. Physical deficits, he noted, are emerging as demand from electronics, solar, EVs and AI infrastructure expands against largely flat mine supply growth.
Copper - widely viewed as a proxy for global economic activity - has climbed nearly 50% over the past year and remains near record levels. While Canaccord maintains a neutral short-term outlook, its longer-term view is firmly bullish.
"Electrification, AI build-out and supply-chain reshoring are driving sustained demand growth," Spencer said. "At the same time, declining grades, fewer discoveries, rising capital intensity and permitting challenges are constraining supply. That's a classic set-up for structural deficits."
Lithium reflects a similar dynamic. After more than two years of falling prices curtailed supply growth, the market rebounded sharply, with prices rising between 120% and 160% from cyclical lows.
"The prevailing narrative was for surpluses into the 2030s. We disagreed," Spencer said. "Demand has broadened beyond EVs into battery energy storage systems, while parts of Chinese supply were suspended. Deficits could emerge as early as 2026 or 2027."
Rare earths may be even more compelling, he added, though investor attention remains distracted by short-term headlines rather than tightening fundamentals.
Across precious metals, base metals, battery materials and specialty minerals, Spencer sees a consistent pattern.
"If you flick through the charts, there's a clear bottom-left to top-right trend. Corrections will happen. Volatility will persist. But that's the price you pay in a bull market."
Ultimately, he argues the current cycle is being driven by powerful structural forces - decarbonisation, electrification, digital infrastructure expansion, geopolitical fragmentation and fiscal stimulus - all inherently commodity-intensive.
"This isn't just a gold story or a copper story," Spencer said. "It's broad-based, it's structural, and in our view we are still in the middle innings of a multi-year bull market across almost everything."
Now in its 25th year, the RIU Explorers Conference has grown into one of Australia's premier mining investment forums, with this year's event attracting its largest audience on record - underscoring renewed investor interest in the resources sector.
