Firstly, thank you Jonathan for welcoming me back to RUSI.
It's a warm welcome and somewhat stands in stark contrast to my recent blacklisting by Iran. Sadly, I've had to cancel the family holiday in Tehran.
And thank you Ritula for your overview of an extraordinary year that will forever be remembered for 2 monarchs, 3 prime ministers and the return of war in Europe.
But let me start by paying tribute to those men and women from all three services who are on duty over Christmas, both at home and overseas.
And we've seen today the Armed Forces are once more key to responding to tragic events, this time in the Channel. And the next few weeks we will be stepping in to fill vital public sector roles due to industrial action.
Whether it's the splendid ceremonial events that we saw earlier this year, or the critical work of driving ambulances, we serve the nation.
So, a big thank you from me to those who will be away from home this Christmas, and especially to their families.
Last year I steered away from focusing on the geopolitical outlook, and instead concentrated my remarks on my priorities for Defence, the need to transform the Armed Forces, and to better support and empower our people.
That agenda has not changed.
We've made lots of progress. In other areas we've not moved fast enough, and I could easily devote the next 25 minutes to unpacking all of this, and I'm happy to answer your questions.
But rarely in our recent history has our purpose in Defence been in sharper focus. We protect the nation and help it to prosper. And given all that has happened over the past 12 months it would be remiss of me not to devote most of my time this evening to the situation we find ourselves in.
My premise is three-fold:
- First, that these are extraordinarily dangerous times.
- Second, that extraordinary times call for an extraordinary response. This explains why Russia is losing. And the free world is winning.
- And third - what comes next, the link between our security and prosperity and the need to stay global.
Last year, in the margins of this event, I said that our worst-case intelligence assessments suggested a Russian invasion of Ukraine would unleash fighting on a scale not seen in Europe since the Second World War.
In the headlines the following morning it seemed alarmist at the time, but they don't now.
What we have seen unfold is tragic and dangerous.
An illegal and unjustified invasion. Naked aggression and territorial expansion. Extraordinary vilification and hatred. Ethnic scourges. Sub-human labelling. Thousands of missiles and armoured vehicles. Millions. I say again, millions of artillery rounds. Hundreds of thousands of troops. Millions of people displaced. Millions without electricity and water. Deliberate attacking of civilians and civilian facilities. IEDs in children's toys.
War crimes. Sham referendums. Faux annexations. Arbitrary detentions. Show trials. Summary executions. Populations being bussed to 'camps' in another country. Millions put at risk of famine. Hundreds of millions suffering the pressure of increased energy prices, inflation, job losses, and the consequences that follow, whether mentally or physically.
Nuclear threats. Nuclear anxiety. Crazy nuclear debates about whether 'tactical nuclear weapons' can be distinguished from 'strategic nuclear weapons'.
So, a war in Europe that challenges Euro Atlantic security and impacts the world.
But it gets worse. Because the other challengers to the world order do not stand still. They support, take advantage and fuel the aggression, with war crimes and hideous justifications.
And these other challengers to the world order are creating their own threat streams and initiating violence. Iran and its supply of missile drones - a captured one which I saw on my last visit to Kyiv with the Prime Minister.
Or Iran and its nuclear programme.
Or ask the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia about the missiles fired at their territory by Iranian-backed Houthi forces this year.
Head further East and we have another Putin ally, North Korea, seeking to smuggle artillery shells to Russia. This should not come as a surprise. This is nuclear North Korea. Pouring bile and anger on its neighbour and mixing rhetoric with over 60 ballistic missile launches this year. 23 of these were on a single day. In a 'normal year' that would astonish the world.
And then there is China.
Not a threat in the same vein as Russia or Iran or North Korea. But a tacit supporter of Russia, whether at the United Nations or taking advantage of cheap energy.
Another nation that determines advantage from increasing substantially its nuclear arsenal, its missile inventory, its Army, Navy and Air Force.
And doing so, accompanied by the language of threat and implication, whether in the Indo Pacific and the brazen claims of 80% of the South China Sea, the plundering of fishing grounds and the denial of protein to neighbouring states. Or the protests in Hong Kong. Or the aggression shown toward Taiwan.
All of this combined with the use of economic and institutional power and hence, the label of 'systemic competitor', to quote the Prime Minister.
So, as 2022 draws to a close, we have a world in which four separate geo-political crises are unfolding in parallel.
Whether it's Putin's sense of impunity, Iran's meddlesome and destabilising behaviour, North Korea's outright belligerence, or an increasingly authoritarian China.
None of these challenges exist in isolation.
Each is connected. Each represents a test of the rules which have guaranteed global security and enabled the spread of prosperity and opportunity throughout our lifetimes. And in aggregate, are extraordinary and profound.
If that all sounds gloomy - and it is - we can take confidence from the response, which is my second point.
Because the response is affirming the perilous nature of using violence and the military instrument as the means to achieve political goals. That is profound. It has resonance around the globe. And it makes us all safer.
At its heart is the will of one country to fight for its survival.
The ingenuity, courage and determination of Ukraine. And the paradox and dilemmas that that has created for the Russian leadership. The brutality of Putin begets resolve. Resolve begets support. Support begets victory.
Despite Putin's best efforts to divide, he has unintentionally assembled an extraordinary coalition of democracies against him. It's as if he has illuminated what our beliefs really mean and entail. The importance of aggression being defeated. The need to abide by international rules. The hideous thought of the nuclear taboo being broken.
Governments have sought to examine and overturn long held policy positions. Be it German defence spending or Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Or Japan's evolving defence posture. And the economic response to Russia's invasion was far greater than has ever been seen and Russia was ill prepared.
Of course, Putin will look for ways to get around sanctions.
But the loss of capital, thousands of international companies fleeing, the brain drain as talent flees tyranny, the reductions in investment, the absence of critical technologies, all of these increase in impact over time.
And the diplomatic response was unequivocal. At the UN 141 nations voted to condemn Russia's invasion, with just five opposing. We can quibble that the world is not so bound together as at the shock in February. But come October it was 143 nations that declared Russia's annexation to be invalid and illegal.
And observe Putin's non-attendance at the G20. Matched by the awkwardness of China, Turkey and India at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. And, even if much more privately, the strength of messaging that Russia had to endure from the United States, China, India, Saudi Arabia and others when anxiety surfaced about the prospect of nuclear avenues being considered. Thank you to those nations for being responsible.
So now let us examine Russia's predicament.
NATO is stronger. Not just in the response on its eastern flank and in the Atlantic and the hard power amassed. But in its sense of purpose. And that purpose is backed by money. 20 nations have already agreed to increase their defence budgets since 24 February. And this is on top of an extra £320 billion of additional spending pledged by European members and Canada since the NATO Summit in Wales in 2014.
This is all in contrast to the horror of the Russian army. About hundred thousand soldiers dead, injured or deserted. Whole battalion tactical groups destroyed. Some 4,500 armoured vehicles and 600 artillery systems destroyed or captured. And it extends to the sea with 12 ships, including a capital ship, lost either at sea or alongside in a supposed safe port. And in the air more than 70 helicopters, 60 aircraft and 150 drones destroyed. These are losses that will be felt for at least a decade.
That is not to say that the coming year won't be difficult. It will be incredibly demanding of Ukraine, and for all of us. But just look at the maths. Russia seeks solace with Iran, North Korea and China. Ukraine turns to the extraordinary might of America and the world.
I attend the monthly contact group chaired by the US Secretary of Defense. It is usually 50 nations in the room and with others joining remotely from across the globe. Political resolve is public, backed by cash, ammunition, armaments, humanitarian aid and, most recently, winter clothing.
We have to hand our phones in before entering the room. It's a shame. It must be terrifying to be a Russian spy and to see what you are really up against.
This, backed by that central will to fight, explains why Ukraine - a modest military power by any calculation - has recaptured already over 50% of the territory it lost.
And it will only get worse for Russia.
Putin's generals were cussed for explaining the need to give ground to preserve their Army. Now they have a far more difficult conversation emerging.
So let me tell Putin tonight what his own generals and ministers are probably too afraid to say: that Russia faces a critical shortage of artillery munitions.
This means that their ability to conduct successful offensive ground operations is rapidly diminishing.
There is no mystery as to why this is the case. Putin planned for a 30-day war, but the Russian guns have now been firing for almost 300 days. The cupboard is bare. Morally, conceptually and physically, Putin's forces are running low.
What about our place in this?
I want to be radical and deeply unfashionable by talking up a few things. We should be proud of the UK's response.
I am grateful for bold action by ministers, a united parliament and responsible opposition politicians who have accepted briefings under Privy Council rules and abided by them.
The sense of unity and cohesion across the political spectrum is a source of strength at a time when our democratic values are being tested internationally.
The Government has made Ukraine a priority, in funds but also through National Security Council meetings, through Prime Ministerial time - with all three of them - and even some four or five dedicated Cabinet meetings at the outset.
That attitude has been matched by our
