• Consumer confidence fell 1.2 points last week to 85.1 points. The four-week moving average declined 1.0 points to 85.5 points.
• 'Weekly inflation expectations' ticked up 0.1 of a percentage point to 5.2 per cent, as the four-week moving average rose 0.2 percentage points to 5.1 per cent.
• 'Current financial conditions' (over the last year) eased 1.5 points, while 'future financial conditions' (next 12 months) was down 1.0 points.
• 'Short-term economic confidence' (next 12 months) decreased 1.1 points, and 'medium-term economic confidence' (next five years) dropped 0.6 points.
• The 'time to buy a major household item' subindex declined 1.6 points.
"The RBA Board held the cash rate at 3.60 per cent last week, with the post-meeting commentary a little more hawkish than we expected. This was likely a factor in the week's 1.2 point fall in ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence. On a four-week moving average basis, weekly inflation expectations are at their highest level since late January. This may have been influenced by the RBA's post-meeting statement noting that Q3 inflation may come in higher than RBA expectations," said ANZ Economist Sophia Angala.
"We now expect a 0.9 per cent q/q increase in trimmed mean (underlying) inflation in Q3, which suggests the RBA will hold the cash rate for the remainder of the year," she said.
"We now expect the RBA to cut the cash rate by 25 basis point in February 2026, and for the cash rate to then stay at 3.35 per cent for an extended period. The absence of a widely anticipated rate cut later this year could see a slowing of the consumer recovery."
