Cyclone to Hit Qld Coast Tomorrow

So let's have a look at that in more detail.

Firstly, you can see in the satellite imagery lots of convection starting to wrap around the low pressure system situated out here in the Coral Sea, and we're starting to see that consolidate in the last few hours. You can see a lot of white clouds developing there, and we can see that even further if we look at the radar imagery.

Lots of rain, showers and thunderstorms rotating around the low pressure system. We're starting to see moderate to heavy rainfall on the eastern side, and some of the rainfall had some very strong winds with it, where Willis Island recorded a wind gust of 133 km an hour earlier this afternoon.

But I also want to point you out to all the rainfall that's developing to the south of this system as well. So not only seeing the rainfall increase around the Townsville area, but also much further south around the central coast of Mackay, and that's where we're likely to see some very heavy rainfall in the coming hours.

So even though the cyclone is likely to move through and cross the coast up through here, areas to the east and south of where it crosses could see some of the heaviest rainfall and strongest winds. So let's look at all of that in more detail.

So as we speak right now, Cyclone Warnings are current from around Innisfail all the way down to around Hamilton Island. That does include Bowen, Ayr and Townsville.

We're likely to see it intensify into a Tropical Cyclone later tonight, and then even into a category two system as we get into the overnight and early morning hours of tomorrow, as it approaches the Queensland coast.

And then we're likely to see it maybe weaken into a category one, or maintaining category two intensity as it crosses the Queensland coast somewhere around Ayr region early tomorrow morning.

And we're likely to see damaging to locally destructive winds, particularly for our coastal areas, and widespread heavy rainfall that will lead to flash and riverine flooding, not only where it crosses, but also much further south as well.

We could see damaging winds and heavy rainfall extend all the way down towards the central coast of Queensland, and I'll show you that shortly.

Then as we move through tomorrow, quickly weakens back into a Tropical Low. It'll bring widespread heavy rain and strong and gusty winds, and it's going to slow down on Sunday and Monday and weaken as it moves inland.

And that means we're likely to see more widespread rain and thunderstorm activity across northern and central parts of Queensland that could lead to further flash and riverine flooding. So let's take a look at all of that in more detail.

So we're going to see this low quickly move south overnight into the early morning hours. Note all this wind and rain much to the east and south of where it's likely to cross.

That's why we're going to see widespread heavy rainfall, not only for the Herbert and Lower Burdekin, but also through parts of the Whitsundays, Central Coast, and could even see some of that rainfall make it as far south as northern parts of the Capricorn Coast.

And notice very strong winds on the eastern and southern side as well.

Then, as it crosses the coast tomorrow, we'll see all this rain and wind move further inland, rain spreading inland to the central highlands and coalfields, and continuation of the onshore flow bringing moderate to heavy rainfall to the Herbert and Lower Burdekin, central coast of the Queensland, and also down into the Capricorn Coast as well.

And then it's going to continue to linger as we get into the early parts of next week, with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms likely to lead to flash and riverine flooding.

And that's of concern, as many of our catchments, particularly through northern parts of Queensland and inland Queensland, are already flooded from the heavy rainfall that we saw around the New Year period. So let's look at that in more detail.

How much are we talking?

Well, over the next three days, we're looking at widespread falls of 1 mm to 200 mm, while parts of the central coast and northern-southern parts of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin, we could see falls here in that 200 mm to 300 mm mark, with isolated falls even heavier than that.

The good news is further north, around the north tropical coast, you're on the north side of this cyclone, so that means winds will be more southerly or south-westerly, means the flow will be offshore, and all the focus will be on the onshore flow component.

And that's why we're going to see that rain push well inland as well.

And we're going to see widespread moderate to heavy rainfall, possibly all the way down to Rockhampton and all the way inland as well to places like around Emerald and further inland there.

But particularly concerned residents and communities for our heavy rainfall from around the region down through Mackay and possibly down as far south as the Saint Lawrence area, where we could see 100 mm of rainfall in the next few days, and obviously where the cyclone crosses, where we could see damaging to locally destructive winds and heavy rainfall as well, particularly to the east and south of where the Tropical Cyclone crosses.

Why we're so worried about this?

Well, that's because we have many Flood Watches and Warnings current right across northern Queensland. These purple areas show areas of Flood Watch, so that's anticipated the forecast rainfall in these areas is likely to lead to flash and riverine flooding in the coming days.

These green areas highlight areas already experiencing or forecasting to experience minor flooding. The orange areas show areas of moderate flooding, and the red areas show areas of major flooding forecast, particularly with forecast rainfall in the coming days.

So that's why we're concerned about these areas where already flooding is ongoing. This forecast rainfall will lead to further flash and riverine flooding in these areas.

And unfortunately, some of that rainfall will spread inland as well to our flood affected areas of inland Queensland. But at this stage, we're not expecting widespread heavy falls to western parts of Queensland.

And on top of all of that, we have a Severe Weather Warning current, particularly to cover that heavy rainfall and damaging wind threat well south of where the cyclone is likely to impact tomorrow as well.

So we've got Cyclone Warnings coming in the Townsville and Hamilton Island area for the cyclone crossing tomorrow morning.

You'll see a Severe Weather Warning extends much further south and much further inland as well. And that's to cover the heavy rainfall and damaging wind threat that we're likely to see tonight, and particularly through much of tomorrow as the Tropical Cyclone moves inland and weakens and produces widespread heavy rain and damaging winds.

So there's a lot of weather to come through northern parts of Queensland over the next 24 to 38 hours.

We'd like to see the tropical low intensify into a Tropical Cyclone in the coming hours off the Queensland coast, crossing as a category one or two system.

As we get through the tomorrow morning hours on Sunday, with widespread heavy rain and damaging to locally destructive winds near and to the south of where it crosses.

And as you just saw earlier, Severe Weather Warnings are current as well for much of Queensland.

So please, residents and communities living between around that Cardwell, Townsville area all the way down to Mackay, make sure you stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via our website, app and social media, and please listen to all advice from your local emergency services, as conditions will change rapidly and advice could change quickly as well.

And we'll continue to keep you updated here at the Bureau.