Energy in War: Shifting from Fragility to Resilience

Greenpeace

In the Middle East in general, and especially in Lebanon, we do not experience war only through breaking news headlines or the sounds of shelling, but we also experience it in the details of daily life: in the anxiety about power outages, the fear of fuel shortages, the high cost of transportation, and even in the price of bread.

How the war in the Middle East impacts daily life

War does not remain confined to the front lines; rather, it quickly seeps into homes, kitchens, transportation, generator bills, and the ability of families to secure their basic needs and feel safe and stable.

With each new escalation, it's not just politics that is affected; the repercussions extend to the daily lives of millions, especially when those lives depend on fragile and centralised energy systems linked to fossil fuels and supply chains that can be disrupted at any moment. This is clearly what we are witnessing today amidst the war raging in our region.

When shipping lanes are disrupted, oil and gas prices rise, or fears of supply shortages increase, it is no longer a purely economic matter, but quickly becomes a direct burden on people: transportation becomes more difficult, running businesses more expensive, and securing electricity more challenging and precarious, while families find themselves once again facing a new crisis.

Fossil fuels are unsafe and unstable

While some face the full force of airstrikes and attacks, others experience economic contraction and a growing fear of worse to come. But one reality unites us all: the risks facing a global economy overly reliant on fossil fuels, known for its extreme volatility and its close ties to conflict, which makes our societies more vulnerable with each crisis.

The repercussions are not limited to the countries directly affected by the conflict, but extend to the economies of the region, such as Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco, where the cost of fuel, transportation, electricity, and basic commodities has risen significantly.

The war quickly impacted markets, with oil prices exceeding US$100 per barrel in the early days of the escalation, while the Egyptian pound fell to around 53 pounds to the dollar, and domestic fuel prices increased, further driving up the costs of transportation, electricity, and food. In Tunisia, the rising average exchange rate of the dollar, coupled with soaring global oil prices, threatens to exacerbate pressure on the 2026 budget and the cost of living in an economy heavily reliant on energy imports. In Morocco, which also imports most of its oil needs, domestic prices are under increasing pressure, impacting vital sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing.

This handout photo taken on March 11, 2026 and released by the Royal Thai Navy shows smoke rising from the Thai bulk carrier 'Mayuree Naree' near the Strait of Hormuz after an attack.

A Thai bulk carrier travelling in the crucial Strait of Hormuz was attacked March 11, with 20 crew members rescued so far, the Thai navy said.

© Royal Thai Navy / Handout

Energy is a hostage in the war in the Middle East and people are paying the price

Within days of US-Israel strikes on Iran, energy itself became a direct battleground. As the conflict rapidly escalated across the Middle East, fossil fuel infrastructure quickly became a direct target. The Strait of Hormuz became a flashpoint threatening global supplies. Israel cut off gas deliveries to Egypt and Jordan. And gas prices soared by nearly 50% after production was disrupted at a major facility in Qatar. This clearly demonstrates how fossil fuels can be transformed into a geopolitical tool that directly impacts people's lives.

Renewable energy in the Middle East and North Africa region is no longer merely a postponed environmental or climate issue. For us today, it is a matter of daily resilience, sustainability, and the dignity of our societies. It is a matter of sovereignty, not only in its abstract political sense, but also in the sense of our societies' ability to secure a greater portion of their basic needs locally and reduce their dependence on market fluctuations, wars, and geopolitical tensions.

A just transition to renewable energy is key

Energy sovereignty is not simply a matter of replacing one energy source with another; it requires a fundamental rethinking of the entire energy system structure. The more decentralised energy production becomes, the closer it is to people, and the more accessible it is to homes, schools, hospitals, farms, and small businesses, the more resilient our communities will be during times of crisis. Decentralised systems, such as rooftop solar power or small community projects, do not eliminate risks entirely, but they reduce vulnerability and empower people to take greater control of their lives and build resilience.

We have witnessed this clearly in Lebanon. With the ongoing collapse of the electricity sector in recent years, thousands of families and businesses have turned to solar energy, not as a luxury or a green option, but as a means of survival. Many have not turned to these solutions to address the climate crisis, but to obtain electricity that enables them to live with dignity, work, and study.

This reality applies to the entire region. The Middle East and North Africa are among the richest in solar energy, yet our societies remain vulnerable to an energy system that exacerbates their fragility with every war or market disruption. Paradoxically, we have the resources to build a more independent and secure energy future, yet we remain trapped in the same old fossil fuel model. However, it is encouraging that some countries in the region are beginning to chart a transformation. Morocco aims to generate more than half of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, while the UAE seeks to triple its renewable energy contribution by the same year.

Group Photo on the Roof with Solar Installation in Lebanon. © Imad Maalouf / Greenpeace
Group photo with Greenpeace staff, volunteers, trainees and women, with a 3kW peak solar PV installation at a women's agricultural cooperative in the small southern Lebanese village of Deir Kanoun Ras al-Ain.
© Imad Maalouf / Greenpeace

What we need is system change

But what we need today is not just more large-scale renewable energy projects, important as they are, but also a deeper shift toward a more equitable and people-centered energy model. We need policies that enable households, communities, institutions, and farmers to access affordable, decentralised renewable energy within clear regulatory frameworks and with equitable financing, viewing energy as part of social and economic protection, not just a technical sector.

In times of war, all illusions crumble: energy security is not a matter of technology or figures in market reports, but a matter of daily life, social stability, and human dignity. When electricity, transportation, food preservation, and the operation of schools and hospitals become hostage to conflicts beyond the control of the people, the problem lies at the very heart of the entire system, not just in the supply chain.

Climate March in Beirut, Lebanon. © Greenpeace / Roland Salem
People take part in the Fridays for Future climate march in Beirut, Lebanon.
© Greenpeace / Roland Salem

Therefore, a just transition to decentralised renewable energy is no longer a luxury, but a fundamental necessity for strengthening communities' resilience to crises. When these communities possess more stable and sovereign energy systems, they are better equipped to protect their livelihoods and withstand shocks to the economy and daily life.

In our region, energy sovereignty is measured not only by what we produce, but also by our ability to ensure that people's lives are not held hostage by every new war or crisis.

Ghiwa Nakat is the Executive Director of Greenpeace Middle East and North Africa

This story was originally posted in Arabic exclusively on CNN Economics.

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