At least 6.9 million Australians living on the expanding fringes of our capital cities could be at risk from urban fires supercharged by climate pollution, a joint report from former Australian fire chiefs and the Climate Council has found.
The report comes after devastating fires claimed the life of a firefighter, and destroyed dozens of homes across New South Wales and Tasmania in December 2025.
The report When Cities Burn: Could the LA Fires happen here? details how climate pollution, from burning coal, oil and gas, is turbo-charging dangerous fire conditions. This is making LA-style urban blazes increasingly likely in parts of Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart.
The report from Climate Council and Emergency Leaders for Climate Action (ELCA) also reveals more people than ever are living in harm's way, with populations on the outskirts of our cities up 65% on average since 2001.
Former NSW Fire Commissioner and founder of ELCA, Greg Mullins said: "Our analysis shows that Australian cities increasingly face the potential for catastrophic fires like the ones in LA earlier this year. Those fires burned in winter driven by hurricane-strength winds. Climate pollution is now worsening fire weather conditions to the point that fires can sometimes be beyond the limits of modern firefighting and prevention capabilities."
Mr Mullins said the report should serve as a wake-up call for all Australians living in capital cities: "If you live in suburbia and think bushfires don't concern you, think again. Nearly every Australian capital city has a dangerous mix of preconditions for a catastrophic fire like LA: the possibility of extreme dry periods; severe winds; steep slopes; bushland near homes; and a history of destructive fires," he said.
"It's critical that we deal with the cause of more extreme weather by drastically cutting climate pollution while properly resourcing fire and land management agencies, and preparing suburban communities for rising risks."
Former Tasmania Fire Service Chief Fire Officer and ELCA member, Mike Brown said the December fires in Tasmania that have destroyed at least 21 homes should serve as a stark warning: "In otherwise mild conditions, extreme winds grounded firefighting aircraft and created perilous conditions on the ground for firefighters.
"Climate change is supercharging fire conditions, including extreme winds that can tip a bad fire into a catastrophic one. Studies have shown the winds in Tasmania are increasing, particularly in recent decades with record 200km/h wind gusts recorded in 1998 and 2023."
Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie said the LA fires shocked the world because they shattered assumptions about when and where such fires can strike.
"Climate pollution has made unnatural disasters disturbingly commonplace, but the LA fires – which claimed 31 lives and destroyed 16,000 homes and buildings – still jolted the world. Australia shares many of the same dangerous conditions. If we don't get climate pollution under control then this report shows many of our cities and communities are in the firing line.
"Every Australian in every city, suburb and town is already paying a price today for worsening fire conditions driven by climate pollution. Surviving and recovering from fires has cost us billions since 2009, and this report shows insurance premiums have jumped 78-138% since 2020 in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth bushfire danger zones.¹
"Households shouldn't keep footing the bill for worsening fires while corporations selling coal, oil and gas drive up climate pollution and rake in profits. We must phase out these polluting fuels and speed up our shift to renewable energy while investing in preparing communities."
