The Minister for Resources' decision was informed by:
the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's (ACCC) Gas inquiry September 2025 interim report
advice from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and Western Australian and Northern Territory Governments on gas supply and demand outlook for the east and west coasts.
The ACCC report forecasts a surplus between 2PJ and 24PJ in the east coast market for the quarter. The size of the surplus will depend on how much uncontracted gas the east coast LNG producers export.
The government is confident that there will be sufficient uncontracted gas available to address any potential shortfalls to the market. Under the Heads of Agreement, LNG producers must offer their uncontracted gas to the domestic market ahead of export. AEMO forecasts there will be sufficient gas in storage to manage potential risks during this period.
In the unlikely event a localised gas supply emergency or shortfall arises, AEMO's powers allow it to respond in several ways. This includes directing gas flows in the east coast market, if required.
This means the government is confident that:
- Australia's east coast gas market will have enough supply from January to March 2026.
- Domestic demand for the east coast gas market can be met without reducing gas exports.
- There are sufficient mitigations to address supply-demand imbalances for the east coast and the Western Australian gas markets.
