The Minister for Resources based this decision on a range of factors.
This included considering:
- the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's (ACCC) Gas inquiry December 2025 interim report
- advice from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and Western Australian and Northern Territory Governments on gas supply and demand outlook for the east and west coasts.
The ACCC report forecasts a range between 15PJ surplus and an 8PJ shortfall in the east coast market for the quarter. The size of the surplus will depend on whether LNG producers export all 22 PJ of their uncontracted gas. This represents a small improvement from the forecast in ACCC's September 2025 report.
The government is confident that there will be sufficient uncontracted gas available to address any potential shortfalls to the market. AEMO and ACCC forecast there will be sufficient gas in storage and surplus gas production in Queensland to manage potential risks during this period. Western Australian and Northern Territory Governments have also confirmed positive outlooks in their jurisdictions.
The domestic gas market is also unlikely to be negatively impacted by external factors, such as global price shocks.
In the unlikely event a localised gas supply emergency or shortfall arises, AEMO's powers allow it to respond in several ways. This includes directing gas flows if required.
This means the government is confident that:
- Australia's east coast gas market will have enough supply to meet the demands of consumers from April to June 2026.
- Domestic demand for the east coast gas market can be met without reducing gas exports.
- There are sufficient mitigations to address nation-wide supply-demand risks for the quarter.
