Australia is expected to have plentiful gas supply to meet demand during the October to December 2026 quarter (Q4). Forecasts show a healthy surplus across the east coast market.
The latest advice from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) indicates that supply will comfortably meet consumer and industry needs over the period.
The ACCC's June 2026 Gas Inquiry report forecasts a surplus of between 13 and 20 petajoules (PJ) on the east coast for Q4. This depends on the level of uncontracted gas exports. This forecast represents the highest expected Q4 surplus since 2023, and a 7 PJ improvement on the 2025 outlook. The stronger outlook is driven by increased production across all major basins, alongside lower anticipated demand.
This means Australia's east coast gas market is well positioned to:
- meet domestic demand throughout the fourth quarter of 2026
- maintain gas exports without impacting local supply
- manage potential supply and demand risks through existing regulatory powers.
In light of these conditions, the Minister for Resources will not issue a notification of intent (NOI) to consider Q4 supply outlook.
The Minister's decision considered:
- the ACCC report
- updated briefings from AEMO
- advice from Western Australian and Northern Territory governments on gas supply and demand across the east and west coasts.
Until the start of the Domestic Gas Reservation Scheme , our department will continue its quarterly assessments of domestic gas supply to support Australia's energy needs.
